AAF - Week 5 Best Bets
March 8, 2019
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Alliance of American Football Betting Preview
It was two outright wins for both of the underdog best bet selections last week, as San Antonio was able to end Birmingham's undefeated season, while Atlanta found a way to get their first win of the year as a two touchdown underdog. Thankfully taking the points brought no nerves with them in those plays, and it's on to Week 5 with a perfect 4-0 ATS record in AAF intact.
This week it's all about division matchups in the Alliance as it's still way to early in the league's life to call them rivalries yet. The week opens up with a huge 1st place showdown in the East between Orlando and Birmingham, while the week closes with Arizona – the overwhelming favorite to win it all before the season started – searching for answers to stop this two-game losing streak they find themselves on.
It's those two games that make the betting card this week, so let's get right to the plays:
YTD Record: 4-0 ATS
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Best Bet #1: Birmingham Iron +4.5
Birmingham may have come up short in last week's loss to San Antonio but through a month's worth of games now, they've shown that they are more than comfortable in their defensive-minded skin. The Iron will need their defense to be at or near their best against Orlando in this matchup as the Apollos have shown to be the most consistent offense in the league.
And while it is awful early to be thinking about teams looking ahead/past an opponent in this league, it's tough not to figure that wasn't the case for Birmingham a week ago. They saw both them and Orlando undefeated and atop the East standings last week and knew they had this home game on deck with the Apollos. The flat effort the Iron gave in that game was evident, and while their great defense (allowed just 33 total points through four weeks) kept them in the game for it's entirety it just didn't land their way. Yet, when those look ahead opponents finally arrive across the field from this Birmingham team on Saturday, I don't expect any sort of flat effort at all.
The Iron can't afford to drop this game if they've got any hope fo winning the East's top spot, as four of their final five games after this one are on the road, including a trip to Orlando in the final week. Being two games behind in the loss column and down 1-0 in the head-to-head matchup would have Birmingham really behind the 8-ball should they lose this week. That may end up being the case in the end, but the Iron's play on defense will make sure it's not a defeat by more than a FG.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Best Bet #2: San Antonio/Arizona Over 40
Highest total on the board this week, and in a league that's been starved for offense through the first four weeks, bettors and AAF fans in general may have to wait until the finale this week to see plenty of points. The “high” number is warranted for sure given the matchup, but these totals are still too heavily influenced by the run of 'unders' we've seen in this league, and 40 points is still rather low.
Arizona is back at home after arguably three sub-par performances the past three weeks. Last week's home loss to winless Atlanta was the capper on that poor play, as to come away with a 1-2 SU record against three teams that enter this week a combined 3-9 SU this year is not what the preseason title favorites expected from themselves. After the embarrassment at home a week ago, this does set up as a spot where we should expect to see Arizona at least near their best, and with that we should expect some offense from them.
Defensively, the fact that Arizona gave up an average of 18.33 points per game to those three teams with a combined 3-9 SU record suggests that the Hotshots defense is still not great by any means, and San Antonio's offense has shown to be much more consistent this year than the likes of Memphis, Salt Lake, and Atlanta, as in fact, the Commanders have more points scored on the year (67) than any one of those teams. Against this Hotshots team that the Commanders have to figure will move the ball, San Antonio will be ready to match score for score if need be.
So after weeks of minimal scoring in this league, I do believe we will start to see a shift very soon in terms of a few more 'overs' getting to the cashier window, and that could be lead by this game. At least one of these teams have been involved in the highest scoring game of the week in three of the four weeks of the season so far, and pairing them up against one another should bring some offensive fireworks.
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