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Beware of the Bengals
 

Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence's expert NFL selections can be purchased in his discounted season package on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!

First off, let me say I’m not a strong advocate of playing NFL Win Total Futures. For one, your money is tied up from the time you make your play until the season is over. Second, the future play you make can often times critically influence other handicaps you make either ‘on’ or ‘against’ that same team down the road in the regular season, especially late in the year, if you let it.

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That being said, there is generally one or two situational or statistical based future plays that surface each season that combine both value and solid handicapping logic. On the NFL front this season there is one such play that warrant such a play. Let’s take a look –

CINCINNATI BENGALS Over 7.5 +120

Nobody likes laying the juice when it comes to making a bet. It's always nice when you're on the plus side of a wagering proposition. It's even better when you cash that proposition.

Taking +120 on this play means the majority of players, in addition to the linemaker, feel the 'other side' of the wager is the right side. When you disprove that thought you not only put yourself on the 'right side' of the play but also the 'value side' as well.

Last year the Bengals were the only team in the NFL to finish the season with improved stats on both sides of the ball, yet declined both SU and ATS. Teams in this situation almost always improve their win production the following year.

Cincinnati was 2-6 at the midway point of the season in 2007, yet refused to fold when they won five of their eight remaining contests - only to end the year at 7-9. Should they not fall into the same early hole this year as last, they close out the 2nd half of the campaign against foes that combined to go just 65-64 overall last year.

With Marvin Lewis on the hot seat, look for this underachieving but talented bunch to eclipse last year's production en route to a playoff effort in 2008.

There you have it. My take on what I perceive to be a solid NFL Win Total play for the 2008 season ahead. Good luck.

  
HEADLINES
Nover: Opening Line Report - Week 6
Vikings edge Saints in high-scoring affair
Colts hope comeback jump-starts season
Browns hope to avoid another Giant mess
Rodgers expected to play at Seattle
LT: 'critical time' ahead for Bolts
Westbrook has 2 broken ribs
Texans look to shake off embarrassing loss
Fewer mistakes, more wins for Dolphins
MORE HEADLINES
 
 Mark Franco
 9-1 L10, 19-8 (70%) in '08
 Alf Musketa
 16-6 L22, +920 This Year
 Tony Stoffo
 18-7 L4 Sunday's
 Scott Pritchard
 10-2 L12, 16-4 +1,160 L20
 Northcoast Sports
 PERFECT 5-0 Week 5, 63% TY
 Stephen Nover
 19-6, +1,240 L25 Picks
 The Gold Sheet
 6-1, +490 L2 Weeks
 Marc Lawrence
 7-2, +480 L9 Plays
 Andy Iskoe
 10-2 L12, 13-4 +860 L17
 Matt Fargo
 5-1 Week 5, +985 (63%) in '08
 Bryan Leonard
 6-3 L9, 10-5 +450 L15
 Bob Donahue
 3-0 LW, 10-4 (71%) +560 TY
 Joe Nelson
 16-7 (70%) +830 in 2008
 Jamie Tursini
 13-5 (72%) +750 TY
 Joshua Jacobs
 16-9 (64%) +610 in '08
 Ed Meyer
 13-3, +970 L2 Weeks
 Doc's Sports
 3-1 L4, 35-13 since 12/10/07
 

NCAAFB College Football Expert Picks - Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

 
2008-09 NFL SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Tony Stoffo + 1085
Mark Franco + 1020
Matt Fargo + 985
Last Week's Leaders
Handicapper Money
Northcoast Sports + 500
Ed Meyer + 490
Andy Iskoe + 390
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Jamie Tursini 72 %
Bob Donahue 71 %
Mark Franco 70 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Matt Fargo + 885
Mark Fox + 680
Brian Gabrielle + 595
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Ed Meyer + 870
Tony Stoffo + 635
Doc's Sports + 600
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
Scott Pritchard + 860
Doc's Sports + 700
Ed Meyer + 490
MORE PICK RECORDS
  
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