Joe Nelson was VI's #3 rated NFL handicapper in the 2007 regular season and playoffs finishing +1,470. Sign up for a season package today!
Everyone knows that the preseason is mostly meaningless but for a perennial loser like the Detroit Lions, a 3-0 start should offer some encouragement, especially considering how poorly Detroit ended the 2007 season. The Lions have made a habit of losing in the regular season but Detroit has also been a terrible preseason team. Last week’s convincing win over Cleveland clinched the first winning preseason for the Lions since going 3-1 in 1996.
The NFC North dominated the headlines this summer with the Brett Favre saga and the Lions have rightfully been the forgotten team in the division. Most projections call for Detroit to be the last place team in the division and one of the worst teams in the NFL by some accounts but Detroit could actually be a sleeper team in this division.
John Kitna will not be confused for Tom Brady anytime soon but he has had a productive career when he has been healthy and had the opportunity. Kitna posted big numbers in the first half last season but struggled late in the year and nagging injuries due to poor protection limited his effectiveness and confidence. Still Kitna put up over 4,000 yards passing and delivered some clutch performances. The Lions are also in good position with back-ups Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton both showing some promise and there is continuity as both were with the team last season. Given the questionable QB situations among the other three teams in the NFC North the Lions may actually have the best players in the most important position on the field.
Green Bay obviously has a big question mark with Aaron Rodgers, as he has seen such limited action. Rodgers looked good in relief against Dallas last season but injuries have been a serious problem, leaving the risk that the Packers are forced to start a rookie QB at some point this season. Rodgers will also face severe pressure and scrutiny in replacing Favre and it is hard to say how an inexperienced and unproven QB will handle the situations he will be in, especially if the Packers get off to a poor start to the season.
Minnesota QB Tavaris Jackson made a great deal of mistakes last season and if the running game struggles he has not proven he can make enough plays in the passing game to help Minnesota win. Jackson also suffered a preseason knee injury and although he appears on track for recovery there is a chance that veteran Gus Frerotte will have to be the leader for the Vikings at some point this season. Frerotte is quality veteran to have in a back-up role but not the ideal signal-caller for a team with playoff aspirations. Frerotte is in his 15th season in the league as well so his health could be an issue if he is forced into significant action.
Chicago has announced that Kyle Orton will start over Rex Grossman and although that may be a popular choice among Bears fans he has not exactly proven to be an efficient passer at the pro level, hitting just 53 percent last season. Grossman and Orton have led the Bears to wins in the past but neither has been truly satisfactory in the QB position. The Bears struggled to run the ball last season and unless rookie Matt Forte emerges right away Chicago’s offense could have a very tough time moving the ball.
Green Bay and Minnesota are the favorites in the division based on defense but the Lions may be able to keep pace on offense. Rookie Kevin Smith has made some great plays in preseason action and Tatum Bell has had some success in the league. With Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson the Lions have two potentially elite receivers and Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald have also proven to be capable options. The offensive line has been an issue in the past but new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto has a lot of experience coaching the O-line and 1st round draft pick Gosder Cherilus will add some depth and challenge for the starting right tackle spot. The line will not be the strength of this team but there should be some positive progress this year.
The defense really struggled last season, allowing 378 yards per game and nearly 28 points per game. In this division those numbers will not cut it as all three opponents own solid to very good defenses. Losing Shaun Rogers is a major loss and the defensive line will likely be one of the worst units in the league again. The linebacker corps and secondary should be improved however as Detroit brought in several new players and should have a higher overall talent level. For Detroit to seriously contend the defense will need to improve but in a division with shaky opposing QBs the Lions might be able to get by being opportunistic even if the overall numbers are not that strong.
The Lions started 6-2 and then collapsed last season and another strong start is very possible with the schedule ahead. The Lions start on the road but will square off against Atlanta and rookie QB Matt Ryan in week 1. They host the Packers at home in week 2 which will be a key game and the Lions could be an upset threat catching Rodgers in his first road start. Detroit then hits the road to face an unthreatening San Francisco team and then has an early season bye week. Game four is at home against Chicago so starting at least 3-1 is very realistic. There are some tough games down the stretch but the whole division will be in for a challenge with the AFC South teams on the schedule so it will not likely take an overwhelming record to take first place.
It is just the preseason but the Lions have outscored opponents 66-26 in three games and with the defense not allowing more than ten points in any game there is reason for optimism. Detroit’s offense has been very efficient and although the defense has allowed a lot of pass yardage they have limited the ground game for opponents and stepped up in the red zone. The 3-0 start does not count for anything but the Lions need something positive and this is the best preseason start that Detroit has had in over a decade.