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AFC West Preview
August 30, 2008
By Brad Young
VegasInsider.com
T he AFC West isn’t considered one of pro football’s premier conferences this year, but will a weakened division help its top team? San Diego has won the AFC West three of the past four years, and is a decided favorite to capture its third straight title. The Chargers advanced all the way to the AFC Championship Game last year before falling to New England.
The AFC West hasn’t produced a Super Bowl representative since 2002 when the Oakland Raiders were thumped by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII. The Denver Broncos were the last Super Bowl champion from the AFC West after winning their second straight championship back in 1998. This division hasn’t had a wild-card team since 2006 when Kansas City advanced to the postseason, only to drop its first game.
Here are the current odds for the AFC West.
**San Diego Chargers**
Odds to win the 2008-09 AFC Championship: Opened at 5/1, currently 7/2
Odds to win Super Bowl XLIII: Opened at 10/1, currently at 6/1
Regular season win totals: 11
San Diego is powered by superstar running back LaDainian Tomlinson, leading the league in rushing in each of the past two seasons. With opposing defenses trying to slow down the games' best tailback, quarterback Philip Rivers led the Chargers to six straight victories to close out the regular season. However, the five-year veteran signal caller tore his ACL last season and struggled by throwing 15 interceptions.
Linebacker Shawne Merriman will play this season with two torn ligaments in his left knee. The Maryland product has 39 ½ sacks the past three seasons, more than any other NFL player. The defensive unit as a whole led the league by forcing 48 turnovers, 11 more than any other team. Cornerbacks Antonio Cromartie (10 interceptions) and Quentin Jammer (61 tackles) spearhead a solid defensive backfield, while nose tackle Jamal Williams provides plenty of havoc in San Diego’s 3-4 defensive scheme.
Head coach Norv Turner (69-87-1) returns for his second season with the Chargers, and has underwhelmed in his 10 seasons by making the postseason just twice. Last year’s 11-5 ledger was his best record as head coach, and he’s hoping to get back to the postseason and improve his 3-2 playoff record. The schedule appears tailor made for a quick start with games against lesser opponents Oakland, Miami and the New York Jets. Playing in such a weak division should help San Diego in its playoff positioning.
**Denver Broncos**
Odds to win the 2008-09 AFC Championship: 18/1
Odds to win Super Bowl XLIII: 38/1
Regular season win totals: 8
Denver has enjoyed an incredible run the past 35 years, winning two Super Bowl titles while suffering through just six losing seasons including last year’s 7-9 campaign. Third-year quarterback Jay Cutler struggled last season with 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, fading badly down the stretch after being diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Wide receiver Brandon Marshall was the lone offensive weapon by catching 102 passes for 1,325 yards, while no other Broncos player caught as many as 50 passes.
The Denver defense struggled to contain opposing running backs, ranking a horrific 30th in the league. That is not a good stat considering the Broncos must face LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren McFadden and Larry Johnson a combined six times this season. Denver will not be in postseason contention if they continue to yield 4.6 yards per carry in 2008.
Head coach Mike Shanahan will have his work cut out for him, dealing with a subpar defense and an aging offensive line. Adding to the problem is that place kicker Jason Elam bolted for Atlanta after helping the Broncos win numerous close games. The glory years in the Mile High City might very well be in the rear-view mirror.
**Oakland Raiders**
Odds to win the 2008-09 AFC Championship: Opened at 60/1, currently 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl XLIII: Opened at 125/1, currently at 75/1
Regular season win totals: 6
Oakland continues to be a team in turmoil, averaging less than four wins a season the last four years. Adding to the Raiders instability is the fact that no head coach has lasted longer than two years, not exactly a ringing endorsement for second-year head coach Lane Kiffin.
Running back Darren McFadden appears to be a solid first-round selection, and Oakland is hoping he can revitalize the ground game and take some of the pressure off a subpar offense. Quarterback JaMarcus Russell had just two touchdown passes and four interceptions during limited action as a rookie, and the receiving corps is incredibly thin.
The defensive side of the ball was addressed with free agency, bringing in nose tackle Tommy Kelly along with ends Greg Spires and Kalimba Edwards. Cornerback appears to be the Raiders’ strongest position, with the recent addition of Pro Bowler DeAngelo Hall via trade along with six-year veteran Nnamdi Asomugha.
**Kansas City Chiefs**
Odds to win the 2008-09 AFC Championship: 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl XLIII: 100/1
Regular season win totals: 5.5
The Kansas City offense struggled last year, ranking 30th in points scored, 31st in total offense and dead last in rushing (78 yards per game). Chan Gailey is the new offensive coordinator, and he hopes to utilize a healthy Larry Johnson at running back along with veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez. Gailey’s offense revolves around dominant running attacks that chew up the clock. However, the Chiefs will need a healthy Johnson at tailback after playing just eight games last year due to a foot injury.
This offense should take some of the pressure off third-year signal caller Brodie Croyle, who will have to improve on last year’s six touchdowns and six interceptions in nine games. Gonzalez is a 12-year veteran, and stepped up last season with 99 catches for 1,172 yards.
Kansas City ended last season mired in a nine-game losing streak, then promptly traded away its best defensive player in Jared Allen. The defensive line was addressed during the draft with the selection of nose tackle Glenn Dorsey out of Louisiana State. The Chiefs are in rebuilding mode, but luckily for them they play in one of football’s weaker divisions.
Brad Young can be reached at byoung@vegasinsider.com.
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