Getting the NFL season off on the right foot, Vegasinsider.com has brought the College and Pro Football Handicapping Challenges back for another go-around. Last season was a slow start in my selecting process, but after much deliberation and in-depth analysis, a final figure of choosing 56-percent of these games correctly felt like vindication.
All right, so instead of breaking down last season’s results let’s jump right into 2008 with a positive attitude. My colleague, Judd Hall has already left the starting gate in picking some winners in the College Football Challenge. If you missed his opening week picks then you can click here. Hall has also done an excellent job at breaking down the rules for both contests so be sure to get all the details before taking home the bacon.
1.) Cincinnati (-1 1/2) at Baltimore – 1:00 p.m. EDT
The Bengals are praying that their star wide receiver, Chad Johnson is as ready and healthy as he says he is when asked about his status in Week 1. With RB Rudi Johnson receiving his walking papers over the weekend, expect Cinci to turn to a running back by committee format with Chris Perry leading the charge on the depth chart.
Baltimore has been dominated by the Bengals, going 1-6 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings and dropping three contests in the last four played at home. Although Cincinnati was responsible for giving up a league 26th worst, 230.4 YPG through the air and 118.3 YPG on the ground, we’re talking about a Ravens squad equally as unimpressive in the offensive department (189.7 passing YPG) in 2007.
Mix in the fact that the Baltimore organization is tossing rookie QB Joe Flacco into the fire, starting his NFL career on Sunday, and there’s too many arguments that can be made on how ineffective the club will be at moving the ball down field. It's status quo in Baltimore.
Final Score: Cincinnati 27, Baltimore 13
2.) Buffalo (-1 1/2) vs. Seattle – 1:00 p.m. EDT
I may be jumping on Buffalo’s competitive bandwagon early on this season but it’s tough to argue that this club isn’t in the middle of improving on both sides of the ball. We’ve got another game hovering around the one-point spread and with a Seattle team missing some of its most important players (WRs Deion Branch and Bobby Engram), it’s tough to imagine that the home team won’t emerge on top.
The Bills were a 15.8 PPG scoring team last season (third worst in the league), and with signal caller Trent Edwards receiving limited practice time, pro bowl left tackle Jason Peters in hiding with a contract dispute and with only one healthy tight end, I can’t blame proponents doubting this team once again.
But to begin the season at home versus a team with their own injury problems, basic IQ says that Bills’ RB Marshawn Lynch and wide outs Lee Evans and Josh Reed will be able to push their team across the goal line for the winning score.
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings versus Seattle.
Final Score: Buffalo 24, Seattle 17
3.) Detroit (-3 ½) at Atlanta
Now I’m not even close to being sold on this Detroit team but my doubts circling around Atlanta lend itself to even more negativity. This is a Falcons team that allowed offences around the league last season to record a combined 355.5 YPG (127.1 YPG on the ground and 228.4 YPG from the air) and 25.9 PPG across the goal line. Cornerbacks Brent Grimes, Chris Houston and defensive end Jamaal Anderson are three examples of how young Atlanta is on ‘D’.
The Lions may not be the sharpest tool in the shed but veteran QB Jon Kitna has plenty of playmaking targets in WRs Calvin Johnson, Roy Williams and now newly acquired RB Rudi Johnson should be able to alleviate any added pressure from opponents.
It’s going to take the Falcons time to get on their feet with rookie signal caller Matt Ryan (who’s really being tossed into a flaming pit with the team – or lack there of – around him), and at this point there’s no doubting that Detroit is ahead in the talent department.
Final Score: Detroit 34, Atlanta 16
4.) Dallas (-5 ½) at Cleveland – 4:15 p.m. EDT
Cleveland enters the first game of the season with a 1-7-1 ATS record in its last nine Week 1 games. Not a lock by any means, but expectations for the Cowboys are sky high. Big names on both sides of Dallas’ ball should be able to hold back a Browns team who many think will have problems repeating the offensive prowess that raised their stock last season.
It’s hard to find flaws in Dallas but are we looking at a squad who's capable at breaking down in the playoffs once again. The wide receiver core is probably the weakest link in terms of depth with Sam Hurd, Isaiah Stanback both questionable and Miles Austin and Danny Amendola unknown producers in the NFL to this writer.
But either way, this is a Cowboys club who posted a league second best 28.4 PPG with 256.6 YPG chalked up through the air. Sure, Cleveland was above adequate at moving the ball with 232.9 YPG generated by QB Derek Anderson last season and company. Can the Brownies somehow play repeat to the ’07 offensive monster? Take into consideration that Anderson is expected to start even with a concussion on the mend.
Even if it was preseason, backers can’t be happy to financially support a Cleveland team that scored just 16 points in the last two preseason games, while allowing 25.8 PPG in all four “practice games”.
Final Score: Dallas 31, Cleveland 21
5.) Minnesota (+2 1/2) at Green Bay – 7:00 p.m. EDT
The Vikings enter their first week of play with a solid 11-5-1 ATS report in their last 17 versus the NFC North, but are 0-4 ATS versus the Packers in the last four head-to-head meetings.
The make or break player in this contest is Minnesota’s QB Tarvaris Jackson and how he get’s back into the swing of things. Jackson is recovering from a minor knee sprain but early reports have him listed at close to 100-percent recovered.
Watch Viking’s RB Adrian Peterson, who the whole football world is waiting to explode right out of the gate. But backers on Minnesota must be concerned about how that LCL is doing after Peterson tore the ligament in the final four weeks of last season.
The Brett-less Packers look to use a solid front offensive line in conjunction with signal caller Aaron Rodgers. There are just too many question marks for Green Bay and looking back at last year’s passing numbers wouldn’t do us much justice.
Final Score: Minnesota 17, Green Bay 13
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
