The momentum continues to build in Week 1 of the NFL season. With the entire staff at Vegasinsider.com manning all stations, it’s time to take an alternate route on how your money can begin stacking high for a profitable 2008 campaign.
Underdogs have been a horrible investment when looking at the overall picture for the last five seasons. Glancing back at 2003 ‘dogs have gone a total 635-644-8 (49.1%) against the spread, with the 2005 season witnessing a 106-146-8 (42%) record representing a financial crash if you would have wagered on the underdog in every game.
With seven home ‘dogs hitting the turf this week is there any value in backing these perceived losers?
N.Y. Jets (-3) at Miami – 1:00 p.m. EDT
The first home ‘dog to look at is the Dolphins playing host to the N.Y. Jets. This is a Dolphins team whose been waxed by New York for a 1-7 SU record. The Jets have also rewarded bettors with a fired up 7-0-1 ATS run in those same eight meetings.
In 2007, Miami was a pitiful 2-4 ATS at home as an underdog and since 2005 has gone 5-7 ATS in the same position on the board. The Dolphins have struggled against fellow AFC East clubs with a 5-21-2 ATS financial dive in the last 28 games.
Backing up a possible fade on the home underdog is the Jets’ record of 19-4-2 ATS in their last 25 head-to-head meetings against Miami.
If there’s any predictions coming from this writer it’s that the Dolphins will look to hit New York’s stout defense with a double running attack. A bit of concern hangs over the head of ‘Fins RB Ronnie Brown, who’s coming off a torn ACL from last season.
Detroit (-3) at Atlanta – 1:00 p.m. EDT
While 74-percent of the betting public has their money locked up on the Lions and the Falcons predicted to fall flat on their face this season, we can’t overlook some quick facts.
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games (granted it’s a new season) and has amassed a disappointing 8-24 SU and 14-18 ATS record since 2004.
Some numbers that might support reasoning to lay money on the home ‘dog Falcons is an 8-2 ATS report in the last 10 games played in Week 1 and the team’s ability to cover the spread five times in the last six games. Then again, Atlanta is a financially depleted 3-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Dallas (-5 ½) at Cleveland – 4:15 p.m. EDT
In the last three years, the Browns have faired less then average when installed as the underdog with a 14-16-1 ATS report. The good news for backers is that Cleveland excelled at home with a 7-1 ATS record, but books had also installed them as favorites five times when playing inside their own building (5-0 ATS).
We all know the high expectations coming out of Dallas this season, but its been the complete opposite for the Browns who will be penning QB Derek Anderson into Sunday’s lineup despite still recovering from a concussion sustained in a 37-34 loss against Giants this preseason.
Some other doubts about Cleveland rewarding backers is a 1-7-1 ATS record in its last nine Week 1 games.
The last time these two teams collided was in 2004 with Dallas walking away as a winner in the standings and ATS department with a 19-12 victory. Most books had installed the Cowboys as 5 ½-point favorites, coincidently the same spread facing this contest on Sunday.
Denver (-3) at Oakland – Monday at 10:15 p.m. EDT
There’s a good reason why many bettors may want to walk away from a wager on Oakland. Trend wise, the Raiders are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games and have dropped 28 of their last 39 home games. But what sounds like a solid angle to nail is Denver’s inability to cover the spread in its last four games versus Oakland.
Last season the Raiders went 2-2 ATS as the home underdog, was 3-3 ATS in 2006 and completely wiped out backers with an 0-4 ATS slide in 2005. But then again, the Broncos have been the red headed step child when pitted against the AFC West, going 2-10 ATS in their last 12.
Oakland has gone on to cover the spread four straight times in the last four head-to-head games with Denver, despite generating a 1-3 SU performance.
Shifting gears, pay attention to Raiders’ wide out Javon Walker who’s been limited in practice after reports of a tight hamstring has been linked as the culprit. While Walker says he’ll be ready for the Monday nighter, the team staff will ultimately make the call. Remember that Walker only played in eight games last season (for Denver), hauling in 26 catches for 287 yards and no touchdowns.
With Oakland very shaky at the wide receiver position, expect newly acquired Ashley Lelie to receive playing time if Walker is designated to the bench. Lelie has posted just one season of receiving over 1,000 yards (back in 2004).
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
