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Fading the Patriots
September 5, 2008
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The New York Giants not only defeated Washington 16-9 on Thursday but they covered the 4 ½-point number as well. Earlier this week, I released a column about the Super Bowl winner and how they fared in their opener.
The victory for the Giants extended an eye opening trend on defending champs in Week 1 to nine straight wins. More importantly, the Giants and the previous champions have boasted a 7-1-1 record against the spread during this run.
Sticking with the Super Bowl theme, we would feel selfish not offering up another solid angle based on the big game. It’s been just as consistent as the above trend and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week, but for the entire season.
| SUPER BOWL LOSER - WEEK 1 HISTORY |
| Year |
Loser |
Opponent |
Line |
Result |
| 2008 |
New England |
vs. Kansas City |
-16 |
|
| 2007 |
Chicago |
at San Diego |
+6 |
Loss 3-14 |
| 2006 |
Seattle |
at Detroit |
-6 |
Win 9-6 |
| 2005 |
Philadelphia |
at Atlanta |
-1 |
Loss 10-14 |
| 2004 |
Carolina |
vs. Green Bay |
-3 |
Loss 14-24 |
| 2003 |
Oakland |
at Tennessee |
+3 |
Loss 20-25 |
| 2002 |
St. Louis |
at Denver |
-3 |
Loss 16-23 |
| 2001 |
N.Y. Giants |
vs. San Francisco |
+3 |
Loss 13-16 |
| 2000 |
Tennessee |
at Buffalo |
PK |
Loss 13-16 |
| 1999 |
Atlanta |
at Minnesota |
+4 |
Loss 14-17 | |
Nine straight seasons and counting, the loser of the previous Super Bowl is 1-8 straight up and 1-7-1 ATS in Week 1.
We could very well be talking about the Giants in this spot rather than the Patriots, but New England’s 18-0 perfect season came to an end in Super Bowl XLII.
With that being said, this week’s play based on this trend is Kansas City +16 at New England. It’s hard to argue that the Patriots will lose this contest at home, considering they’ve only dropped five games at Gillette Stadium in the last five years. However the system is based on the spread and in case you forgot, the Patriots closed last year with a 0-5 ATS skid as double-digit favorites.
If you’re a little hesitant to go against the Pats in Week 1, then don’t worry. You’ll have the entire season to fade head coach Bill Belichick and company. The Week 1 trend of playing against the Super Bowl losers has carried on for entire seasons. In the table below, you can see that only two of the last nine losers in the big game have made a return trip to the postseason the very next year.
| SUPER BOWL LOSER - RECORD HISTORY |
| Year |
Loser |
SU Record |
ATS Record |
Playoffs |
| 2008 |
New England |
|
|
|
| 2007 |
Chicago |
7-9 |
7-9 |
No |
| 2006 |
Seattle |
10-8 |
8-10 |
Yes |
| 2005 |
Philadelphia |
6-10 |
5-11 |
No |
| 2004 |
Carolina |
7-9 |
10-6 |
No |
| 2003 |
Oakland |
4-12 |
3-10-1 |
No |
| 2002 |
St. Louis |
9-7 |
4-12 |
No |
| 2001 |
N.Y. Giants |
10-6 |
9-7 |
No |
| 2000 |
Tennessee |
13-3 |
6-10 |
Yes |
| 1999 |
Atlanta |
5-11 |
6-10 |
No | |
The Patriots are huge favorites to win the AFC East and one of the top teams considered to win the AFC and Super Bowl. They very well can win all three, but gamblers should beware that it could cost you weekly in your bankroll.
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
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