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Late-Games Tip Sheet
September 5, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards finished the 2007 NFL season on fire. Brian was 40-23 (64%, +1,485) to close the season. He also finished No. 1 on VI in both totals (+1,120) and member plays (+1,155). Click to win with Brian in the NFL now!
G amblers have just three games to choose from in the four o'clock Eastern slot, highlighted by the Cowboys' trip to the Dog Pound. Let's take a look at all three matchups.
**Cowboys at Browns**
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Dallas (13-4 straight up, 9-8 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 48 ½. However, as of early Friday night, most books had the Cowboys at either 5 ½ or six. The Browns are plus 200 on the money line (risk $100 to win $200).
--Dallas failed to cover the number in each of its last five games last season. The Cowboys lost three of their last four games outright, including a 21-17 loss to the Giants in the playoffs.
--Cleveland (10-6 SU, 12-4 ATS) posted an outstanding 7-1 spread record at home last season. The Browns were 2-1 ATS in three games as home underdogs.
--Dallas added three key pieces in the off-season. First, the ‘Boys brought in a veteran linebacker in long-time Dolphin Zach Thomas. Secondly, they added a big-time playmaker in running back Felix Jones from out of Arkansas. Jones is a threat both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield. He can line up in the slot or even at receiver if needed. Finally, Adam “Pac-Man” Jones was acquired (and reinstated), giving Dallas depth in the secondary and a home-run threat in the return game.
--The ‘Boys might also get contributions from rookies Mike Jenkins (CB from USF) and Tashard Choice (RB from Ga. Tech).
--Romeo Crennel’s squad was one of last season’s biggest surprises, especially for our purposes. The Browns’ best off-season additions were DT Shaun Rogers and WR Donte Stallworth. They didn’t have a draft choice until the fourth round.
--Dallas went 3-3 ATS as a road ‘chalk’ last year.
--The ‘under’ cashed in each of Cleveland’s last six games of 2007.
--Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis was downgraded to “questionable” on Friday.
**Panthers at Chargers**
--Most spots are listing San Diego (13-6 SU, 14-5 ATS) as a 9 ½-point favorite with a total of 41 ½. Bettors can back the Panthers to win outright for a plus 400 payout.
--The Chargers took the cash in each of their last nine games last season, including the 21-12 loss at New England in the AFC title game. They closed as 14-point ‘dogs against the Patriots.
--Norv Turner’s club finished 2007 with an 8-1 spread record at home. The Bolts went 11-3 ATS as favorites, 7-1 ATS as home ‘chalk.’
--Carolina (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS) is coming into a make-or-break campaign, both for head coach John Fox and the team’s nucleus. (Remember, former Pittsburgh coach Bill Cowher has relocated to Raleigh, N.C., so this job would likely appeal to him should he choose to return to coaching.) The Panthers’ season fell apart last year when QB Jake Delhomme went down with a season-ending elbow injury. Nevertheless, they did manage a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five outings.
--The Panthers posted a 3-3 spread record as road underdogs in 2007. However, dating back to 2004, they own an excellent 15-6-1 ATS mark as road ‘dogs.
--Carolina had a good bit of turnover in the off-season. The goners include DT Kris Jenkins, DE Mike Rucker, LB Dan Morgan, WR Drew Carter and WR Keary Colbert. Also, gamblers should keep in mind that perennial Pro-Bowl WR Steve Smith is “out” for the first two games due to suspension.
--The Panthers have brought back veteran WR Muhsin Muhammad. Other additions include RB LaBrandon Toefield, DT Darwin Walker and OG Milford Brown. In the draft, they got a pair of first-rounders in RB Jonathan Stewart (Oregon) and OT Jeff Otah (Pitt).
--San Diego used its first-round pick on CB Antoine Cason from out of Arizona. Jacob Hester, a bruising RB from LSU, might have an even bigger impact as a rookie.
**Cardinals at 49ers**
--Most books are listing Arizona (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) as either a 2 ½-point favorite or a three-point ‘chalk’ (albeit at even money or possibly a small ‘plus’). The total is 42, while the 49ers are plus 125 on the money line.
--San Francisco (5-11 SU, 5-11 ATS) appears to have given up on former No. 1 pick Alex Smith, who won’t be the starter in his third season. Instead, the 49ers are going with J.T. O’Sullivan, who spent the last few years in Detroit with new offensive coordinator Mike Martz.
--Mike Nolan’s team went 3-4 ATS as a home underdog in 2007.
--The Cardinals were a road favorite only once last year, winning outright but failing to cover in a 34-31 triumph at St. Louis as four-point ‘chalk.’
--I thought Arizona got great value with both its second and third-round draft choices, grabbing DE Calais Campbell (Miami) with the 50th selection and WR Early Doucet (LSU) at 81.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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