User ID
Password
  Forgot User ID
or Register Today!
VegasInsider.com
Follow Us on Facebook Follow Us on Twitter Follow Us on Google+ VI Mobile Scores and Betting Odds
Home
NFL
NBA
NHL
MLB
NCAA FB
NCAA BK
Golf
Auto Racing
Horses
More
Betting Tools

 
Opening Line Report - Week 12

New Sportsbook.ag customers: Make your 1st bet, get your 2nd bet free, 100%, winnings paid in cash.
Join Now

Already have an account? Click here to view new Exclusive Rewards!

Editor’s Note: Stephen Nover is currently listed as the No. 1 NFL handicapper (+1,700) on VegasInsider.com. Don’t miss out on his winning selections. Click to win!

Bookmakers are taking a huge risk any time they put out a double-digit underdog, even if that ‘dog is the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders are 10-point road underdogs to the Denver Broncos Sunday. Laugh at Oakland’s offense, but the Raiders are 2-0 against the spread when getting 10 points losing at Buffalo and Miami by a combined three points.

Favorites laying 10 or more points are 1-14 against the spread this season.

Advertisement
“You can’t make any team a double-digit favorite,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

From a power ratings standpoint, Seba said he would rate Denver a 10 ½-point favorite at home versus Oakland. Yet his opening-line recommendation was Denver minus nine.

“You have to dial it down a notch the way double-digit ‘dogs have been covering,” he said. “We’re sending these (double-digit favorites) out knowing the pros are going to take the ‘dogs.

“But it’s to the point where the public won’t back these big favorites anymore.”

This matchup could be a case of Oakland finally finding a defense it can score against. The Raiders’ offense has managed to score 35 points in six games under new coach Tom Cable.

Maybe that will change now that Darren McFadden finally appears healthy from his lingering turf toe injury. The Broncos rank 29th in total defense.

Winless Detroit certainly rivals Oakland in being inept. Bookmakers weren’t going to make the Lions 10-point home underdogs, though, to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are nine-point road favorites.

The LVSC oddsmakers sent out Tampa Bay minus 7 ½ to their many Nevada hotel clients.

“It won’t get to double-digits,” Seba said. “Not with Tampa Bay.”

The Buccaneers were nine-point road chalk three weeks ago versus Kansas City and had to go into overtime to win. The Buccaneers also lost their best running back, Earnest Graham, possibly for the season because of an ankle injury suffered Sunday. Graham’s loss leaves the run-oriented Bucs without a real power back.

Despite their 0-10 record, the Lions actually are playing hard. They are motivated not to become the first team to go 0-16 in a season. They are 4-2 against the spread in their last six games with one of those non-pointspread covers coming in an eight-point loss to Washington as a seven-point underdog.

The LVSC oddsmakers had some disagreement on the New England-Miami matchup. Some, like Seba, made New England a one-point favorite. The linemakers ended up putting out the Dolphins as two-point favorites. The Las Vegas Hilton was showing Miami minus 2 ½ on Monday morning.

The Dolphins caught the Patriots by surprise in Week 3 unleashing their Wildcat formation in a 38-13 victory. Bill Belichick probably isn’t going to have his team unprepared again, especially with extra time to prepare.

Belichick, however, historically has had problems with the Dolphins. He’s just 9-8 against them. The Dolphins have won seven of their last 10 home contests against New England.

Still, the Patriots have yet to lose back-to-back games this season.

“There’s no way it will get to three,” Seba said about the Patriots-Dolphins line. “Miami only beat Seattle and Oakland (during the past two weeks) by two at home.”

The New York Giants were inching their way up to becoming 3 ½-point road chalk against Arizona after sportsbooks opened the defending world champions minus three with higher juice.

“I might lay three, but not 3 ½,” Seba said about the Giants taking on the Cardinals. “I don’t want to go against the Cardinals at home.”

The Cardinals stand a shot at winning their first division title since 1975 during this month. Arizona has won 10 of its last 12 home games, including seven in a row under Ken Whisenhunt.

The Giants, though, are the best road team in football covering 13 of their last 14 as a visitor.

  
HEADLINES
Mejia: Week 2 Preseason Notes - NFC
Lawrence: 2014 AFC Season Preview
Mejia: Week 2 Preseason Notes - AFC
ASA: NFC North Notebook
ASA: NFC South Notebook
Marshall: Philadelphia Hype
Rogers: AFC North Preview
Browns tab Hoyer as starting QB
Cowboys worth more than $3 billion
MORE HEADLINES
 
Why Buy Picks From VegasInsider.com
NFL Pro Football Handicapper Sports Picks Records
NFL Hot Streaks
9-3 L12 Picks, 73 % +1,083 TY
3-0 L3 G-Plays, 6-1 L7 Picks
5-0 L5 Guaranteed Plays
4-0 Preseason Record
5-1 Picks This Season
4-1 L5, 7-3 This Year
4-0 NFL Guarantees TY
NFL Pro Football Expert Sports Picks-
2014 NFL SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Antony Dinero + 1083
Bruce Marshall + 570
Marc Lawrence + 400
Last Week's Leaders
Handicapper Money
Antony Dinero + 558
Bruce Marshall + 390
Marc Lawrence + 300
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Marc Lawrence 100 %
Kyle Hunter 100 %
ASA 83 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Antony Dinero + 455
The Gold Sheet + 400
Scott Pritchard + 390
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Antony Dinero + 785
ASA + 200
Bruce Marshall + 200
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
Bruce Marshall + 295
Doc's Sports + 290
John Fisher + 275
MORE PICK RECORDS
  
corner graphic
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 10% off a Live Odds subscription, SAVE 20% off Daily Pick packages, and receive access to up to 1,000 Member Plays each month!