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Top Ten Home Field Edges in the NFL
It's an unwritten rule in NFL handicapping that the home field is worth three points to the hosting club. But astute football bettors want more than just a rule of thumb.
We did a little digging and came up with a power poll of the home advantages for every team in the league. We've attached a number to be used any time the team involved is playing in its own stadium.
We'll reveal the worst home-field edges next week. Let's take a peek at which clubs received the biggest leg up playing in front of their home crowd.
Seattle Seahawks (4.5): Qwest Field claims keeps a sign up which reads “12th man” for the contributions the vocal home fans make for the Seahawks. Seattle is 35-13 straight up over the last six seasons at the uniquely loud field. The team was terrible last season, but don’t forget it went 6-2 against the spread at home in two of the previous three seasons.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4.5): The Steelers are 47-16-1 in their last eight seasons at Heinz Field and they’ve only been a home ‘dog five times in their last nine seasons (they’ve covered four of those games). The ATS data isn’t as strong, but I think that has more to do with oddsmakers increasing the club’s home lines. The Yellow and Black get well-earned respect from the books and bettors at the Ketchup Bottle.
Baltimore Ravens (4.0): The Ravens make their home edge count. As a home dog they’ve only been about a 50-50 proposition this decade but as a home fave they’re own a 36-16-2 ATS mark. They draw well at M&T Bank Stadium and they’ve won at least six home games in all but two of the last nine seasons.
San Diego Chargers (4.0): Here’s another team that benefits from being out West. Teams to the Left Coast rarely come up with their best performance. The Bolts are 26-13-1 ATS over the last five seasons in at home games. Last season was a bit of an aberration because of injuries, but prior to 2008, San Diego had won at least seven of its eight home games straight up in three of the four campaigns.
Minnesota Vikings (4.0): A new stadium is on the way but the Vikes may end up missing the dome. The Purple People Eaters are 47-25 straight-up there in this decade. Minny holds just a 50 percent ATS record this decade in friendly confines, a sign that oddsmakers are on top of the added edge the team holds at the Metrodome.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.0): The Bucs are a much stronger home team than road team. They’ve gone at least 6-2 in three of the last four seasons at Raymond James Stadium. They’re also 7-3-1 ATS the last 11 times they’ve been a home ‘dog. Tampa Bay is averaging 2.4 more home wins than road wins over the last five seasons.
New England Patriots (4.0): The Pats have gone undefeated on their home field in three of the last six seasons. Their glory years of covering the spread in home games were 2003 and 2004. Since then, they’ve been mediocre at home from an ATS standpoint. Still, their 39-9 straight-up mark at home over the last six seasons shows how well they play in Gillette Stadium.
Arizona Cardinals (3.5): The Cards play their home games at University of Phoenix Stadium which opened in August of 2006. The first season it wasn’t a big edge but Arizona was a 5-11 team at the time. The true value has been demonstrated over the last two years. The club is 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS over that period in the desert.
New York Giants (3.5): Unlike the Jets, the Giants seem to know how to get the most out of Giants Stadium. They are 19-13 ATS there the last four seasons and in two of those seasons they lost just once game straight-up. The Giants handle the elements much better than their opponents when the winds are swirling at the Meadowlands. Kicking can be especially troublesome for clubs that don’t have much experience in the conditions.
Houston Texans (3.5): Ask almost any opponent and they’ll tell you, the Texans are much tougher to face at Reliant Stadium than when you get them in your own house. Houston has gone 6-2 straight up at Reliant Stadium each of the last two seasons while going just 2-6 on the road. The Texans are also 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.
