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Green Bay at Minnesota
October 5, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards is cashing NFL winners at a 57% clip in 2009. Don't miss out on his pay-if-it-wins-only selection for MNF tonight!
I understand what life-long Packer fans will be going through Monday when their team goes to the Metrodome to face the Vikings. The Cheeseheads will be watching the franchise icon play in a purple uniform against the team he brought back to respectability.
Between Vince Lombardi and Brett Favre’s stays in Green Bay, there wasn’t much for Packer fans to be happy about. Favre changed that. He brought magic to Lambeau Field, won three NFL MVP Awards and took the Pack to a pair of Super Bowls. They beat New England to win the Lombardi Trophy in January of 1997. It was an incredible 16-year run for Favre and the Packers.
As a Florida alum, I watched Steve Spurrier guide the Gators to unprecedented heights. After a glorious, 12-year tenure, Spurrier tried his luck in the NFL and failed. Following a one-year hiatus, he wanted back in college coaching and ended up at South Carolina, one of Florida’s SEC East adversaries.
Truth be told, I couldn’t help but root for Spurrier and the Gamecocks in their first meeting against Florida. It wasn’t something I planned; it’s just how my rooting interest went in that odd first encounter. South Carolina took down UF by a 30-22 count in Columbia. That wasn’t the best Florida team and that’s probably why my heart went against my own team for the only time in my existence.
I have no idea if Packer fans will go a similar route for this week’s edition of Monday Night Football. Some will probably be disgusted by Favre, while others won’t be able to help rooting for him. And then there will be those whose emotions meet somewhere in the middle.
Whatever the case, the emotions will be running sky-high when these long-time NFC North rivals collide in a battle for first place in the division. ESPN will have television coverage at 8:35 p.m. Eastern.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Minnesota (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 46 ½. As of this afternoon, most books were listing the Vikings as five-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 46 ½. The Packers are plus-170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170). The line has been 3 1/2 or four for most of the week, but that number has been on the rise all day.
Favre didn’t wait long to produce his first magical comeback as a Viking. It came in Week 3 in his home debut when he led them to an improbable last-second win over San Francisco. With no timeouts left trailing 24-20, Favre orchestrated a brilliant game-winning drive that was capped by a remarkable 32-yard touchdown catch by Greg Lewis with two seconds remaining.
Brad Childress’s team pulled out the outright win, but the 49ers took the money as seven-point road underdogs. Favre threw for a season-high 301 yards and two TDs, while RB Adrian Peterson rushed 19 times for 85 yards.
Green Bay (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) bounced back from a home loss to the Bengals by going into St. Louis and collecting a 36-17 victory as a 6 ½-point road favorite. The 53 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 42 ½-point total.
Aaron Rodgers threw for 269 yards and a pair of TD passes without an interception. Favre’s replacement in Green Bay had 38 rushing yards, including a four-yard touchdown scamper. Ryan Grant had 99 rushing yards against the Rams.
Just like last season when he had a 28/13 touchdown-interception ratio, Rodgers has been steady again in 2009. He has 714 passing yards through three games and hasn’t been picked off in 90 attempts. He has four TD passes.
Rodgers has a pair of big-time wideouts in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. Driver had four receptions for 95 yards and one TD at St. Louis, bringing his season tally to 14 grabs for 233 yards and two TDs. Jennings has eight catches for 209 yards to date.
Favre’s WRs aren’t as consistent or as established as the ones Rodgers is working with, but Favre has the best player on the field on his squad. That would be the aforementioned Peterson, who has an NFL-best 357 rushing yards and four touchdowns this year. The Oklahoma product is averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
The Vikings also have rookie playmaker Percy Harvin, who helped the Gators to a pair of national titles in his three seasons in Gainesville. Harvin has a touchdown in all three games this year, finding the end zone last week on a 101-yard kick return. He also had four receptions for 51 yards against the 49ers, including a pair of grabs on the game-winning drive.
Green Bay has covered the spread in four straight head-to-head meetings against Minnesota. With that said, the Vikings did win outright in last year’s encounter at the Metrodome, capturing a 28-27 victory. The Pack took the cash, though, closing as 2 ½-point road puppies.
Favre will make his return to Lambeau for the second meeting between these clubs on Nov. 1.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The ‘under’ is 5-3-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between the Vikes and the Pack.
--The ‘over’ is 2-1 for the Packers this year, 1-0 in their lone road outing. Likewise, the ‘over’ is 2-1 overall for Minnesota, 1-0 in its only home assignment.
--Chicago improved to 3-1 on Sunday with a 48-24 win over Detroit as a 10-point home favorite. The 72 combined points easily jumped ‘over’ the 39-point tally. Jay Cutler had a pair of TD passes without being intercepted, while RB Matt Forte rushed for 121 yards and one TD on just 12 carries.
--Jacksonville has now won back-to-back games following its 37-17 bludgeoning of winless Tennessee as a three-point home underdog. David Garrard was in 2007 form, throwing for 323 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.
--I'm still not sold on Denver as a major contender, but you have to give Josh McDaniels and Co. credit for one of the most improbable 4-0 starts in recent memory. And wow, what an amazing catch and run afterwards for the game winner by WR Brandon Marshall. As for the Cowboys, they are a mess. Memo to Tony Romo: At crunch time, you don't want to throw at Denver CB Champ Bailey at all, certainly not on back-to-back plays with the game on the line.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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