As we near the midway point of the season, divisional matchups take on even more meaning. Winning an intra-division contest can help get you a better seed in the playoffs, while losing can force you to make early tee times. There are two early games that have piqued my interest this week in the NFL. Let’s take a look at them.
Ravens at Bengals – 1:00 p.m. EST, CBS
First place in the AFC North is on the line when the Ravens head to the shores of the Ohio River to play Cincinnati (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) this weekend.
The Bengals are coming into this contest after an impressive 45-10 win over Chicago as two-point home pups. Carson Palmer seemingly couldn’t miss against the Bears’ secondary, completing 20 of 24 pass attempts for 233 yards and five touchdowns. Cedric Benson had a hell of an outing against his former team by rushing for 189 yards and a score on 37 carries.
Benson has been a major reason why Cincy has had such a turnaround this season. Last year, the Bengals were ranked 29th in the league with 95.0 rushing yards per game and the fewest touchdowns on the ground with six. Through seven fixtures in 2009, Cincinnati has scored six rushing touchdowns and ninth with 127.7 rushing YPG.
Cincinnati has also been great on the defensive side of the ball. They rank sixth in the NFL in scoring defense (18.3 points per game) and fifth in rushing defense (88.0). Antwan Odom has helped keep quarterback on their toes by picking up eight sacks this season.
Baltimore (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) is certainly feeling full of itself after knocking the Broncos from the ranks of the unbeaten in a 30-7 victory as a four-point home “chalk.” Ray Rice had a quality showing with 84 rushing yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. The Ravens’ defense was the true reason why they dominated Denver. The Broncs converted just three of their 13 third-downs and allowed 200 total yards.
The win over Denver snapped a three-game losing skid that the Ravens had been on, where they lost by a combined 14 points. That stretch includes a last minute 17-14 loss to the Bengals that was a tough pill to swallow.
Despite losing to Cincinnati at home, the Ravens are listed as three-point road favorites with a total of 43 ½.
“I think this is one of the toughest games on the board,” says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Marc Lawrence. “Had Baltimore not beat Denver they would likely have been the underdog in this contest. The Bengals own four victories against teams with winning records and should benefit from a week of rest.”
“The bottom line is that the Ravens are favored because of the revenge factor - they lost to Cincinnati as 9 ½-point home favorites a month ago. A customary eight-point swing between games would bring them in at -1 ½. Add another 1 ½-points for the revenge and thus the line.”
Bodog’s Richard Gardner gives us his take on why the set the line as they did. “Players have been betting the Ravens all year, and this one of those games where we have to take in the bettor’s long term view of the two teams and the fact that some see it as a revenge game. We know bettors will expect a close game, but we know that bettors will see it as must win for the Ravens and bet who they consider to be the better team regardless of venue.”
This series has recently been the domain of the road team as the visitors are 3-1 SU, but just 2-2 ATS. The ‘under’ went 3-1 during that stretch as well.
What is good to know is that the Bengals have been good as home pups coming off of a bye as they’ve gone 3-2-1 SU and 4-2 in their last six games.
Texans at Colts – 1:00 p.m. EST, CBS
While the race for the AFC South doesn’t appear to be in doubt, this contest could be considered a slow changing of the guard. At least that’s one way to spin it.
Indianapolis (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) won its 16th consecutive regular season game last week, but had to earn it in an 18-14 decision over the 49ers as a 13-point home favorite. Peyton Manning may have connected on 31 of his 48 passes for 347 yards, but he looked out of sync for much of this game. Joseph Addai took care of the scoring as he tossed a 22-yard scoring pass to Reggie Wayne to take the lead in the fourth quarter.
Despite the close win last week, the Colts have been coldly effective on offense. They are averaging 28.1 PPG, while next to last in time of possession, averaging 29:36 per game.
Things didn’t look good for Houston (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) when they opened the season with they lost three of its first five decisions. The Texans have now won three straight games, covering the spread in two of those tilts.
The Texans had their way against Buffalo as 3 ½-point road faves in a 31-10 victory. Houston didn’t get into the end zone via the air, but did find pay dirt three times on the ground. What was surprising is that Steve Slaton wasn’t doing the scoring. Slaton was benched after he fumbled the ball away for the fifth time this year. His replacement, Ryan Moats, may have grabbed the starting job as he rushed 23 times for 126 yards and three scores.
All was not sunshine and lollipops for Gary Kubiak’s club last week. The Texans lost tight end Owen Daniels for the rest of the season. So does the loss of Daniels’ 519 receiving yards and five touchdowns factor into the sportsbooks into making Indy a 9 ½-point home “chalk?”
“The combination of the Owen Daniels injury and the fact that Indy's high powered offense sputtered definitely had an impact on the line dropping down from 10 ½,” says Gardner. “To most teams, a spread of 9 ½ would be big, but for Colts and the way they were playing prior to last week, this is a big deal, especially with 10 being a relevant number.”
Even though Houston has been team that was down in the dumps for much of its history, they’ve played the Colts tough. The Texans are 1-8 SU, but 5-4 ATS in their last nine head-to-head meetings with Indy. The ‘over’ is on an 8-0 run between these AFC South clubs.
Something else to keep in mind is that Indianapolis is that they are 13-2 SU, but just 5-9-1 ATS when listed as a 9 ½-point favorite over the last four seasons.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
