|
Las Vegas Money Moves
November 5, 2009
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
T his weekend’s slate of games was one of the more tame, quiet weeks of the entire season for the Sharps. There were a few plays early in the week with a couple more coming in late Thursday afternoon in college football, but the pro football action has been baron.
Of the 13 NFL games, only four games have moved. That includes sides, totals, and money lines, a rarity for this stage of the week. Either the lines are too good being right on the mark, or there is a plan of attack by a few of the groups waiting to make their push at a synchronized time which likely will be late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
In the games that saw early action, the N.Y. Giants were bet up from -4.5 to the dead number of -5.5 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book while others have settled around -5. If money is coming in at -5, there really is no difference between -5 and -5.5 meaning the next likely move is -6.
For the Giants, the same philosophy as last week for betting them when the move was against the Eagles is still in play. In this scenario, we have a good team that has lost three in a row welcoming a visiting West Coast club.
If there is any relief for the San Diego Chargers, it should help that they’ll be playing at their normal 1:15 pm (PST) starting time rather than the early game which has been dreadful for all Pacific time zone teams.
The Panthers getting 14-points was found attractive by bettors early in the week at New Orleans this Sunday for a few possible reasons, beginning with the over-inflated line. This game should be in the 10-point range or less giving extreme value to the 'dog, a team that has beat the Saints straight up in six of their last seven meeting.
Carolina seemed to have found its growl again last week against a good, but shaky Cardinals team led by past staples of a good defense creating turnovers, a solid running game, and Steve Smith making big plays. It’s the first time all season that they have experienced the three segments of their game coming together against an opponent.
The constants over the last three seasons between the two teams is that Drew Brees has been there, Carolina does what they do, and Louisiana native Jake Delhomme has done enough not to lose. In Delhomme’s last five against the Saints he’s thrown 8 TDs and only one pick. On paper, the Saints opportunistic defense should be salivating over the chance to face Delhomme who has 13 interceptions on the season.
This game looks to be one that could play out similar to last week's Saints-Falcons Monday Night Football game. The Panthers running game should be able to move the ball effectively enough with their two-headed monster and a little home cookin’ for Delhomme could be just what the Cajun doctor ordered. For the Brave and Bold, the Panthers money line will net +600.
The current line has the Saints at -13 with the high total of the week again at 52.
In the other minor moves, Arizona money has come in getting 3-points, even laying money to get it, at the Bears. Chicago is currently -3 +105 and is sure to go to 2.5-flat before the weekend gets started.
Tampa Bay found some takers following their bye week taking 10-points at home against the Packers. It’s a good sign for the books when the worst teams in football are found to have value with double-digits numbers. The public will be all over Green Bay in this game at a ratio of about 95%, so they’ll be rooting for the early move to win.
College Football Moves of the Week * Michigan State bet from -18.5 to -20.5 at home against Western Michigan. * Louisville money in at +19 at West Virginia dropping the number to +17. * Arkansas moved from a 5-point favorite to 7 against South Carolina. * Baylor 'dog money found taking 16.5-points at Missouri dropping number to 14. * LSU on the road dropped from +10 down to +7.5 at Alabama in the Game of the Week. * Notre Dame bet Thursday from -10 to -12.5 against Navy. * Nebraska home 'dog money came at +5.5 against their old rival Oklahoma, now at 4. * Michigan at home laying 4.5-points to Purdue, pushed up to -6.5.
|