All the numbers in Sunday’s Houston at Indianapolis game point to the Colts, who are currently nine-point favorites. After all, Indy has won 16 games in a row, is 13-1 all-time against Houston and has covered five of its past six games this season. Peyton Manning is 7-0 against the Texans in Indianapolis, averaging 301 yards with 20 touchdowns.

But there’s a reason that approximately 56 percent of the betting public is on Houston right now, and that’s because I believe not only will Houston cover but might well beat the Colts. The Texans were a chic Super Bowl sleeper pick in the preseason but got off to a lousy start. Now they have won three in a row and are 5-3 for their best record ever after eight games. They are 3-1 on the road and have the third-best passing game in the NFL behind QB Matt Schaub, who is tied for the league lead in TD passes and ranks first in passing yards (2,342), completions (188), fifth in completion percentage at 66.4 and seventh in passer rating (100.5).

Advertisement

Houston isn’t perfect, however. Schaub did lose a valuable weapon this week in tight end Owen Daniels, who is out for the season with a knee injury. He had 40 receptions for 519 yards and a team-leading five touchdowns this season. And running back Steve Slaton has been fumbling the ball all over the place, leading to his benching last week. But then Ryan Moats rushed for 126 yards and three touchdowns on 23 carries in Slaton’s spot.

On defense, the Texans were the worst in the league after three games. But they have reduced their run defense average to 113.3 yards. In the past five games, the Texans have given up 260.4 yards a game, fourth in the NFL. The 58.2 rushing yards per game allowed in that span ranks first. The Texans also lead the league in forcing three-and-outs with 35. They've forced 14 turnovers, which is fifth in the NFL. The one concern is a lack of sacks – just 11.

Indy’s defense, on the other hand, lost at least two more players this week. Linebacker Tyjuan Hagler is done for the season with a ruptured biceps; he had started every game and had 36 tackles (fourth on the team). Then cornerback Marlin Jackson tore his ACL in practice on Thursday. Maybe the Colts won’t miss the nickelback too much, considering he hadn’t played in the past three games with a separate injury. It is also likely that star safety Bob Sanders sits out after not practicing Wednesday or Thursday with an elbow injury suffered last week against the Niners.

Also know that the Colts struggled last week against the 49ers and are just 1-2 ATS at home this season. Four of the last six games against Houston have been decided by seven points or less, and Indy had to rally in the second half of both wins last season.

“I really think this may be the biggest test of our season so far,” Manning said of this week’s game. “The biggest game of our life,” Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson called it.

Take Houston and the points.