Week 8 Recap
As we enter the midway point of the year, we haven’t seen any serious league trends toward the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ so far. After eight weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 60-56-1 (52%) and that includes a 7-6 ‘under’ run in Week 8, which saw a little bit of everything. Seven of the 13 games played last week saw the final outcome decided by double digits. Of those decisions, the ‘over’ went 4-3.
Close calls usually dictate lower-scoring affairs, which in turn create ‘under’ winners. That was the case this past weekend as the ‘under’ went 4-2 in games decided by 10 or less. The two games that jumped ‘over’ were the Saints-Falcons battle on MNF and the Jets-Dolphins divisional clash.
The MNF ‘over’ run has been incredible (see below) this season and last so we won’t harp on that too much, but the AFC East rivalry between Miami and New York was tough to stomach for some, especially this writer. I played the ‘under’ based on an old vice versa (see last week’s TT) system with totals. With the score knotted at 3-3 after 30 minutes, it was time to relax with the kids for 90 minutes before the next session. Foolishly, I checked an update on my phone and saw 24-19 in the third, which just made me laugh.
Two things you cannot handicap in the NFL are turnovers and penalties but I’d like to add special team touchdowns after that loss. Six points at the half and 49 in the second. To think I lost a couple teasers with a number of 50.5 really stuck the knife deeper.
Round Two
Even though the Vice Versa total system lost on the Jets-Dolphins game last weekend, it did cash tickets with the Titans-Jaguars total. This week, we have another divisional matchup that fits the past history criteria but the number has gone up.
Cincinnati upset Baltimore 17-14 in on Oct. 11 as a 9 ½-point road underdog and the combined 31 points fell short of the 42-point closing total. Looking back at this contest, it’s easy to see that both teams left a lot of points off the board. Cincinnati and Baltimore both had multiple turnovers in the red zone plus one field goal was blocked.
The Bengals racked up 402 yards on the Ravens defense, which still gets a lot of undeserving hype according to VegasInsider.com handicapper Pat Hawkins. “The unit is a lot of older and even though they have some big names in Lewis and Reed, they’re not playing at the same level as last year. Teams have been able to go up and down the field on them and it’s fair to say that they’ve been more lucky than good this year,” said Hawkins.
Last year, the Ravens only gave up 20-plus points in five games. Through eight contests this season, the defense has allowed 24-plus point four times. Fortunately for Baltimore, the offense (28.4 PPG) has been stellar behind QB Joe Flacco.
In the 10 previous meetings, the total has gone 5-5. However, this week’s number of 43.5 is the highest total posted during this span, which tells me something.
Extra Week = Extra Points
The argument of rest vs. rust usually comes up with the bye week and the numbers posted this year have shown that the extra week has helped the offense. Twenty-four of the 32 clubs in the NFL have had their bye week already and 18 have played in games after the bye with six more on tap this weekend.
The scoring average for the 18 teams after the bye is an eye opening 26.6 PPG. We delved into the numbers a little further, took out the highest (Saints, 48) and lowest (Broncos, 7) and still came up with an average of 26.4 PPG.
So what does it mean in terms of totals? The ‘over’ has gone 9-9 in those games but that was helped by a 5-1 ‘under’ roll last weekend. Of those five winners, you can say it went 3-1 because the Ravens-Broncos and Jaguars-Titans matchups featured matchups between teams both off byes. So, let’s say the ‘over’ has gone 9-7 with bye teams.
This week, six clubs will look to keep the scoring trend going.
Cincinnati: The Bengals welcome the Ravens in an AFC North battle (see above).
Kansas City: The Chiefs’ offense under head coach Todd Haley has been anything but exciting this year. The offense (15 PPG) has looked awful under QB Matt Cassel but they will be playing a Jags’ defense (25.3 PPG) that has been suspect this year.
New England: After watching the Patriots put up 59 and 35 in their last two games, Tom Brady and company probably didn’t need the bye to get in gear. The offense is clicking right now and they face a Dolphins’ defense that has given up 27, 46 and 25 points in the last three and has a raw secondary.
Pittsburgh: The Steelers head to Denver on Monday Night Football (see below).
Tampa Bay: Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman will get his chance to lead an anemic offense (13.7 PPG) against a Packers’ defense (19.7 PPG) that has been opportunistic. The Bucs do have some weapons on offense, which makes you hope they don’t handcuff Freeman on Sunday.
Washington: The Jim Zorn days are winding down and nobody knows who’s calling the shots in D.C. anymore. Will the extra week help the Redskins? Washington hasn’t scored all year (13.7 PPG) and its third-down conversion (29.1%) rate is gross. Facing an Atlanta team that’s given up 16 PPG in its home games this year doesn’t look good for Zorn – again.
UNDER the Lights?
The ‘over’ on MNF has gone 8-1 (89%) this year but this week’s AFC showdown between Pittsburgh and Denver could make total players rethink their bets.
The Broncos have seen six of their seven games go ‘under’ the number this year and the lone game that did eclipse the closing total was their 34-23 win at San Diego on MNF. In case you forget, 21 of the 57 points posted came from special team touchdowns. If you take away the 34 in that game, Denver is only averaging 17.7 PPG.
Denver and Pittsburgh didn’t meet in the 2008 season but they squared off three times in the three previous years, which included a playoff game. In those three games, the ‘over’ has cashed in all three and very easily too. Plus the numbers (38, 36.5, 41) were in the same range as this week’s total of 39.5.
Baltimore exposed Denver last weekend and held them to 200 yards and seven points. It’s definitely safe to say that Pitt has the better defense too. The Steelers are ranked first against the run (76.6 YPG) and have had a knack of getting to the quarterback (21 sacks). Denver has been a good run-stopper (86.1 YPG) as well, plus they’ve tallied 23 sacks.
You might want to watch the first half of this game and then play the second-half ‘under’ considering Denver hasn’t allowed a second-half point in its three games from Invesco Field at Mile High this year.
Fearless Predictions
Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda…Anybody and everybody who bets always remember the losers more than the winners and that will never change. Last week’s Jets-Dolphins ‘under’ loser cost us some money in our teaser and prevented the $300 sweep. We hit the two totals, which pushes us to 8-6 (+140) on the year, but the teasers are 2-5 (-300). Bases on one-unit plays, we’re down $160 and we only have nine weeks to turn a profit for the postseason. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!
Best Over: Dolphins-Patriots 47
Chad Henne and the Dolphins’ offense were humbled last week but since the former Michigan standout has started for Miami, the ‘over’ has gone 4-0. Now they face a Patriots’ defense that isn’t that great, so some points will be posted by the Fins but not as many as New England. Tom Brady and company have been on a roll lately and the rest should help them even more. In the last five seasons, the Pats have averaged 33.3 PPG after the bye week. If New England can convert TDs instead of FGs, don’t be surprised to see a 40-spot in this one.
Best Under: Steelers-Broncos 39.5
All things usually balance out in the long run and while the betting public has made serious cash on the MNF ‘over’ run, it ends this week in Colorado. Two great defenses will go head-to-head against two teams that need to run the football. Look for a tight game played to the buzzer with the winner claiming a 16-13 victory.
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Dolphins-Patriots Over 38
Texans-Colts Over 39
Bengals-Ravens Over 34.5
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
