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Bears at 49ers
November 12, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Click to win now with Brian Edwards and his guaranteed selection for tonight's Bears-49ers game!
W ith both teams in dire need of a victory to stay in contention in the NFC playoff chase, San Francisco (3-5 straight up, 5-2-1 against the spread) will play host to Chicago on Thursday night. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the 49ers as four-point favorites with a total of 41 ½.
As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Niners favored by three with the total adjusted to 43 ½. Nearly every book is forcing gamblers to lay at least a minus-120 price to back San Francisco, so bettors backing Chicago are getting even money or a small plus return. The Bears are plus-160 on the money line (risk $100 to win $160).
Mike Singletary’s team has lost four in a row after starting the season by winning three of its first four games. The 49ers led the Titans 17-10 at intermission last week, but Tennessee rallied to collect a 34-27 win as a 4 ½-point road underdog.
San Francisco out-yarded the Titans (358-315) and had a huge advantage in first downs (25-14), but it couldn’t overcome three interceptions by Alex Smith, who was making his second start of the season. Smith completed 29-of-45 passes for 286 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
However, with the 49ers trailing 27-20 late in the fourth quarter, Smith was picked off by Cortland Finnegan, who returned the interception 39 yards for a TD to put the game on ice.
Frank Gore ran for 83 yards and one touchdown on 15 carries. Gore also had seven receptions for 75 yards. Vernon Davis made a team-high 10 catches for 102 yards, while Jason Hill had four receptions for 50 yards and two touchdowns.
Chicago (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) has lost three of its last four games both SU and ATS, including last week’s embarrassing 41-21 home loss to Arizona as a one-point ‘chalk.’ Kurt Warner torched the Bears’ secondary for 262 yards passing and five touchdowns. The Cardinals led 31-7 at halftime and 34-7 at the end of the third quarter.
Jay Cutler threw for 369 yards and three touchdowns, but he had no support from the ground game that had to be abandoned early. Matt Forte finished with just 33 yards rushing on five carries. Devin Hester had six receptions for 94 yards, while Earl Bennett had seven catches for 93 yards.
Cutler hasn’t lived up to the hype after he was acquired from Denver in the off-season for a slew of draft picks. The Vanderbilt product had been intercepted 12 times compared to 14 TD passes.
Forte seems to be mired in a sophomore slump of sorts. Without a doubt, at the halfway mark of the 2009 campaign, he’s nowhere near the pace he set in rushing for 1,231 yards as a rookie in ‘08. Forte has 441 rushing yards for a pedestrian average of 3.6 yards per carry.
Hester is enjoying a career year as full-time starting wide receiver. He has 41 catches for 548 yards and three touchdowns.
Lovie Smith’s team is winless both SU and ATS in a pair of road underdog spots this season. The Bears lost 21-14 at Atlanta and 21-15 at Green Bay. They are 1-3 both SU and ATS in four road games, beating Seattle 25-19 as one-point road favorites before getting smoked 45-10 at Cincinnati as one-point road ‘chalk.’
San Francisco is 2-2 both SU and ATS at home this season. The 49ers have been single-digit favorites in each home assignment, just as they are in this one.
Totals have been a complete wash for both clubs, going 4-4 to date. With that said, both squads have seen a recent surge of ‘overs.’ The ‘over’ is 4-2 in the Bears’ last six games, 3-1 in the 49ers’ last four contests.
The NFL Channel will have the telecast at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--We’ll mention a 4-0 run for the ‘over’ in the last four head-to-head meetings between the 49ers and Bears. However, the relevance of this nugget is tempered by the fact that three of those “games” were in the preseason.
--Hester had 11 touchdowns on punt and kick returns in 2006 and ’07. Since then, he has zero.
--San Francisco first-round pick Michael Crabtree didn’t sign a contract until October. The 49ers are winless since he inked his deal. Crabtree has played in each of the last three games, hauling in 14 catches for 167 yards. The Texas Tech product is still looking for his first career TD grab.
--Chicago is in a second-place tie with Green Bay in the NFC North going into Week 10. The Bears and Packers both trail division-leading Minnesota by three games. They are both one game behind the wild-card leaders, Atlanta and Philadelphia, and one-half game back of the 5-4 Giants.
--San Francisco’s future number to win the Super Bowl at Sportsbook.com has been moved to 100/1. Meanwhile, Chicago is now sporting 40/1 odds at the offshore website. New Orleans is now the plus-350 ‘chalk’ (risk $100 to win $350), while other clubs with short odds include Minnesota (+400), New England (+450), Indianapolis (+450) and Pittsburgh (+500).
--I couldn't help but get a good chuckle out of this one. Somebody get poor Me-Angelo some cheese to go with his wine-ing.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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