FINAL WEEK...PROCEED WITH CAUTION!

In many respects, the last week of the NFL regular season is different than the 16 pro football weekends that precede it. Not that it should cause handicappers to go into a state of panic. Indeed, adherence to traditional forecasting principles (such as identifying strengths and weaknesses of each side, fundamental matchups, personnel situations, psychological and technical considerations) is recommended as always.

But we might suggest altering the usual recipe just a bit for this week.

That's because the last week of the NFL season often will more resemble the preseason than a normal regular-season weekend. Much like handicapping exhibition games, we suggest paying extra attention to personnel developments and lineup moves, especially involving quarterbacks (most announced in advance), leading up to the games. Keep in mind that several Week 17 contests will have no bearing on the standings or playoff picture. And it's often the playoff-bound teams, especially those that can't improve their postseason seeding prospects, who experiment the most as they attempt to avoid extra any injuries of consequence before the knockout rounds commence.

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But here is where it often gets tricky, and when a "working knowledge" of the teams often comes in handy. How will a squad respond if its backup QB is taking the snaps, often surrounded by other reserves getting a rare chance to perform? Even if a team isn't compelled to win, will it still focus on victory, or will care little about the much-discussed (and arguably overrated) "momentum" heading into the playoffs?

Unfortunately, recent history doesn't provide a clear road map of what to expect in the final regular-season week. A year ago, many playoff-bound teams, as usual, rested several starters (including QBs) in Week 17 action, with mixed results. Tennessee, assured on the AFC's top seed entering the final week of the regular season, subbed liberally in a meaningless game at Indianapolis (with Vince Young, by the way, going almost the whole way at QB in place of then-starter Kerry Collins). The playoff-bound Colts also took things easy, but responded better to the situation, with Jim Sorgi filling in effectively for a resting Peyton Manning in a 23-0 win. On the other hand, the Giants, already assured of the top seed in the NFC, took a slightly different approach in their final regular-season game at Minnesota, a game in which the Vikings, favored by 7 points, needed to win the NFC North. Tom Coughlin kept Giants starters on the field a bit longer than expected, although by the 4th quarter the G-Men were fielding mostly reserves. Nonetheless, they fought to the finish, when the Vikings needed a 50-yard FG by PK Ryan Longwell in the final seconds to secure a 20-19 win and the NFC North title.

Examples abound in all directions over the past few years. Back in the final regular-season week of the 2005 campaign, Denver, assured of the 2nd seed in the AFC, limited starting QB Jake Plummer's snaps and went with backup Bradlee Van Pelt the entire 2nd half, yet was still sharp and focused when winning 23-7 at San Diego. Jacksonville, locked into the 5th seed in the AFC, subbed liberally and played little-used QB Quinn Gray extensively, yet still whipped Tennessee, 40-13. On the other hand, Chicago low-keyed it at Minnesota and was whipped by the Vikings, 34-10. And 2005 NFC top seed Seattle also didn't risk QB Matt Hasselbeck for more than a couple of series in its 23-17 loss at Green Bay (in which HC Mike Holmgren's well-advertised lineup moves caused a dramatic point-spread shift, the Seahawks ending up a decided underdog and earning a point-spread push at Lambeau Field).

The mention of dramatic point-spread shifts (such as that 2005 Seahawks-Packers game) brings up another interesting Week 17 factor-must-win games don't necessarily mean must-wager games. Examples abound over the years, including the aforementioned Giants-Vikings game last season, when New York had nothing to play and the spread mushroomed in Minnesota's direction before. The Vikes, as mentioned above, didn't cover. And who could forget the final day of the 2003 season, when the Vikings needed a win in their season finale at going-nowhere Arizona to win the NFC North. But not only did Minnesota fail to cover as a 7 1/2-point favorite, it lost the game outright, 18-17, on a pair of Cardinal TDs in the final minutes, including an incredible 28-yard, 4th-down TD pass from Josh McCown to Nathan Poole to win the game with 4 seconds to play. Meanwhile, Green Bay, needing to win the same day over playoff-bound Denver to stay alive, easily handled the 9 1/2-point spread over the disinterested Broncos to advance to the postseason.

Caution, then, might be suggested before blindly laying whatever the point-spread with "must-win" teams such as the Jets and Ravens this week, facing supposedly disinterested foes.

Arizona's effort six years ago this weekend vs. the Vikings offers another example of Week 17 dynamics-don't automatically assume a team doesn't care about winning a game. This is especially true of non-playoff bound squads which would seem to have little to play for in the final week (such as the Lions a year ago). Except for the fact that pro football is the livelihood for the players, and future employment depends upon their performance. That's why we've rarely subscribed to the "lose to get a higher draft choice" argument we hear every season. Coaches of such lower-rung teams are rarely motivated to lose another game and put their own jobs in further jeopardy. And rest assured that players on a losing team could care less about next season's high draft choices who might take their place on the squad. Indeed, there are probably more examples of losing teams winning down the stretch, and thus worsening their draft position the following spring, than vice versa. Look no further than 2005, when San Francisco was in "pole position" for the number one draft choice entering the last two weeks of the season, only to beat the Rams and Texans and slide down to the 6th position in the draft. In the past, we can recall sides such as the 1968 Eagles winning twice late in the season and denying themselves a chance to draft the ballyhooed O.J. Simpson (who ended up with the Bills), and the 1988 Packers winning an otherwise meaningless regular-season finale at Arizona, allowing the Cowboys to draft Troy Aikman with the first pick instead.

Bad teams can often find various ways to beat themselves. But it's never because they're not trying to win. The front office might have different ideas, but rest assured one of the last things on a player's mind is being on a team that's "first on the clock" for next spring's draft!