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UFC Fight Night 129 Odds
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By Tom Wilkinson

UFC Fight Night 129
Demian Maia vs. Kamaru Usman

The main event at UFC Fight Night 129 on Saturday in Chile on FS1 has Kamaru Usman heavily favored against Demian Maia. Usman has been crushing opposition in the UFC, winning all seven of his fights, but he takes a major step up in competition in this fight. Maia is 25-8 in his career, including 19-8 in the UFC. There are two main questions to answer in this fight. First, does Maia have enough at 40-years old to give Usman trouble, and second, has the weak competition made Usman look better than he really is? Let’s look at the bout and UFC picks.

Kamaru Usman -610 vs. Demian Maia +455

The last time we saw Maia in action he lost to Colby Covington by decision in October of last year. Maia has three knockout wins in his career and 12 submission wins. He has 10 first round finishes. Maia has lost his last two fights and there is no question he is on the downside of his career.

Usman is 12-1 in his career and unbeaten in the UFC at 7-0. He is nine years younger than Maia. He has six knockout wins and one submission win. He has three first round finishes. Usman has really not faced any marquee competition, so taking on Maia will be a step up for him.

Both Maia and Usman are known for their takedown ability. Usman has shown some striking ability, especially since he has been under the instruction of Henri Hooft. Usman will be looking to turn this into a striking battle, especially since Maia is 19-2 in the UFC when he gets a takedown in a fight. The question that will likely decide this fight is whether or not Maia can get a takedown. Usman is a former All-American wrestler who can control fights in a variety of ways. He has kept most of his fights standing recently but it won’t be easy to do that against Maia. Usman has never been taken down in his UFC career, but he has never faced anyone as good as Maia.

Usman made some bold comments a couple of years ago about Maia. “This is fighting at the end of the day,” Usman said. “This is not a football game where a high school player is talking to an NFL player. This is a fight at the end of the day. He’s been at the top for a long time. But my style would trump his style. I study this sport. I know that I can get him out of there in the first round.”

UFC Picks
The price on this fight is ridiculous, as Maia shouldn’t be listed as almost a 5/1 underdog. The problem with making a major play on Maia is that Usman is really talented. The only way that Maia wins this fight is to get it to the mat and he may not be able to do that against Usman. The value is definitely on Maia, as he may only need one takedown to win this fight, but Usman is the better all-around fighter. There may be some value on the rounds total, as Usman wants to prove he can win this fight in the first round, while Maia knows he can’t win a long drawn out battle against a younger opponent. I will go under the rounds in this fight.

UFC Fight Night 129 takes place on Saturday, May 19, 2018 at Movistar ArenainSantiago, Chile with a welterweight match between Demian Maia and Kamaru Usman as the event headliner. There are six fights on the main card on FS1 and seven preliminary bouts, with four on FS2 and three on UFC Fight Pass.

Odds per

Main Card (FS1)
Welterweight – Kamaru Usman -610 vs. Demian Maia +455
Women’s Strawweight – Tatiana Suarez -670 vs. Alexa Grasso +485
Light Heavyweight – Dominick Reyes -255 vs. Jared Cannonier +205
Women’s Flyweight – Andrea Lee -315 vs. Veronica Macedo +255
Bantamweight – Diego Rivas -160 vs. Guido Cannetti +135
Welterweight – Vicente Luque -200 vs. Chad Laprise +170

Preliminary Card (FS2)
Welterweight – Zak Cummings -140 vs. Michel Prazeres +120
Flyweight – Alexandre Pantoja -130 vs. Brandon Moreno +110
Women’s Strawweight – Poliana Botelho -170 vs. Syuri Kondo +140
Featherweight – Gabriel Benitez -210 vs. Humberto Bandenay +175

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Featherweight – Enrique Barzola -185 vs. Brandon Davis +155
Bantamweight – Frankie Saenz -310 vs. Henry Briones +250
Lightweight – Felipe Silva -310 vs. Claudio Puelles +250

**Odds and Bouts Subject to Change**

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