Friday's Tip Sheet
October 25, 2018
By Brian Edwards
Editor’s Note: Brian Edwards went 4-2 in Week 8 and has his Saturday games ready to purchase and then enjoy profit galore. Make sure to get in on his next pay-if-it-wins-only selection!
**Miami at Boston College**
-- Both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this ACC showdown. As of Thursday morning, most betting shops had Miami (5-2 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5. The Eagles were +145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145).
-- Boston College (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) is undefeated in four home games with a 3-1 spread record. The Eagles have beaten UMass (55-21), Holy Cross (62-14), Temple (45-35) and Louisville (38-20), with the lone non-cover coming against the Owls as 13-point home ‘chalk.’ They took the cash as 11-point home favorites vs. U of L last week, as the 58 combined points inched ‘over’ the 56.5-point total. With just a 24-20 advantage early in the fourth quarter, BC’s David Bailey scored on a one-yard touchdown run. Then with 3:34 remaining, Jeff Smith’s five-yard dash into the end zone gave BC the spread cover and allowed ‘over’ backers to rejoice. The Eagles had a 20-15 edge over the Cardinals in first downs and a 430-217 advantage in total offense. Anthony Brown completed 16-of-22 passes for 179 yards and one TD without an interception. Bailey rushed for 112 yards and one TD on 28 carries, while Ben Glines ran 17 times for 107 yards and one score.
-- BC star sophomore RB A.J. Dillon is ‘probable’ and set to return Friday night after missing back-to-back games with a sprained ankle. Dillon, a first-team All-ACC selection as a freshman in 2017 when he ran for 1,589 yards and 14 TDs, has rushed for 652 yards and six TDs with a 6.2 yards-per-carry average.
-- Boston College owns a 7-8 spread record in 15 games as a home underdog during Steve Addazio’s six-year tenure.
-- Brown, a third-year sophomore QB, has completed 58.7 percent of his throws for 1,238 yards with a 14/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sophomore WR Kobay White has 15 receptions for 265 yards and three TDs, while Smith has 14 catches for 255 yards and three TDs.
-- Miami saw its five-game winning streak snapped in a 16-13 loss at Virginia as a seven-point road favorite on Oct. 13. Redshirt freshman QB N’Kosi Perry threw two first-half interceptions and was yanked in favor of senior QB Malik Rosier, who connected on 12-of-23 passes for 170 yards with one interception. Rosier ran for an 11-yard TD with 3:04 remaining to slice the deficit to three, but it was too little and too late for the Hurricanes. Travis Homer rushed for 95 yards on eight carries and made three catches for 50 yards. Trajan Bandy had a pair of interceptions for UM in the losing effort.
-- Mark Richt has decided to go back to Rosier as his starting QB in what seems to be an odd decision. Rosier has completed 52.1 percent of his passes for 781 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. However, he has just one TD pass compared to three picks in the two games he’s played in against Power Five opponents. Perry has a 56.2 completion percentage for 666 passing yards with an 11/5 TD-INT ratio. He had four TD passes without an interception to rally Miami to a 28-27 home win over FSU on Oct. 6.
-- Homer, a second-team All-ACC honoree in 2017, has rushed for a team-high 529 yards and one TD while averaging 5.8 YPC. He also has six catches for 68 yards. RB Deejay Dallas has 393 rushing yards, two TDs and a 5.8 YPC average. True freshman Lorenzo Lingard, the prize jewel of Richt’s most recent recruiting class, has run for 136 yards and two TDs with an 8.0 YPC average. However, Lingard injured his knee earlier this week and is ‘out’ indefinitely.
-- Jeff Thomas has emerged as UM’s top wideout, catching 17 balls for 401 yards and three TDs. Lawrence Cager has 15 receptions for 265 yards and six TDs, while Brevin Jordan has 18 grabs for 208 yards and four TDs.
-- Miami has compiled a 7-4 spread record as a road favorite on Richt’s watch since he took the job in 2016.
-- The ‘over’ is 5-2 overall for BC, 4-0 in its home games. The Eagles have seen their games average combined scores of 65.6 points per game.
-- The ‘over’ is 5-2 overall for the ‘Canes, 1-1 in their road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 55.6 PPG.
-- These former Big East rivals haven’t squared off since 2012. UM owns a 24-5 lead in the all-time series, including a 41-32 victory as a two-point road favorite in 2012. Going back to 2001, the ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run in the past six games in this rivalry.
-- Kickoff from Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. According to weather.com, the forecast is for cloudy skies with showers later at night. Winds are expected to be at around 10 miles per hour with temperatures in the upper 30s.
**Utah at UCLA**
-- As of Thursday morning, most books had Utah (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) listed as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 54.5. The Bruins were +320 on the money line (risk $100 to win $320). The forecast is for perfect football weather – clear skies, light wind and a low temperature in the mid-60s.
-- Utah has won three consecutive games both SU and ATS to take over first place in the Pac-12 South with a 3-2 record in league play. USC is also 3-2 in conference action, but the Utes own the tiebreaker over the Trojans after beating them 41-28 as 6.5-point home ‘chalk’ last week. Junior QB Tyler Huntley balled out with 22 completions on 29 throws for 341 passing yards and four TDs without an interception. Huntley also ran for 33 yards and one TD. Zack Moss ran 25 times for 136 yards, and WR Britain Covey had four receptions for 79 yards and one TD.
-- Kyle Whittingham’s squad is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in three road outings to date. The Utes have failed to cover the number in a pair of games as road favorites this year. They won 17-6 at No. Illinois but needed a late pick-six to seal the game and didn’t cover as 12.5-point ‘chalk.’ As a 1.5-point road favorite at Washington State, Utah lost by a 28-24 count.
-- Huntley has completed 65.5 percent of his passes for 1,536 yards with an 11/3 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 240 yards and four TDs as well. Moss has run for a team-best 753 yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC. He also has six catches for 36 yards and one TD. Covey has a team-best 42 receptions for 458 yards and one TD, in addition to rushing for 88 yards on nine attempts. He’s also completed 2-of-2 passes for 64 yards and one TD. Covey is ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in all-purpose yards with 677.
-- Utah’s defense is led by senior LB Chase Hansen, who has 63 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, four sacks, one QB hurry and two interceptions for 40 return yards and one TD. The Utes are ranked seventh in the nation in total defense, No. 1 at defending the run and 16th in scoring ‘D’ (17.7 PPG).
-- UCLA (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) got off to an atrocious 0-5 start to begin The Chip Kelly Era, only to respond with back-to-back victories at California (37-7) and vs. Arizona (31-30). Junior RB Joshua Kelley rushed 31 times for 136 yards and one TD, and he also had four catches for 43 yards in last week’s triumph over the Wildcats, who took the cash as 10-point road underdogs. Wilton Speight, the grad transfer QB from Michigan, hit on 17-of-27 pass attempts for 204 yards and two TDs without an interception. Theo Howard had three receptions for 84 yards, while Caleb Wilson had six catches for 82 yards.
-- UCLA has lost three of its four home games both SU and ATS. The Bruins have tasted defeat vs. Cincinnati (26-17), vs. Fresno State (38-14) and vs. Washington (31-24). Their lone spread cover came as 21-point home underdogs vs. the Huskies.
-- UCLA true freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson left last week’s game due to an arm injury, but he’s been upgraded to ‘probable’ vs. Utah. Thompson-Robinson has a 60.2 completion percentage, 1,176 passing yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio. Speight will be ready if needed. He has completed 64.1 percent of his throws for 249 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio.
-- Junior RB Joshua Kelley has emerged as the Bruins’ featured back, rushing for 569 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC. Wilson has a team-best 29 receptions for 417 yards and one TD, and Howard has 28 grabs for 371 yards and two TDs. Kelley also has 15 catches for 119 yards.
-- This Pac-12 South rivalry has seen Utah prevail in back-to-back meetings and three of the past four both SU and ATS. The ‘under’ cashed in five consecutive encounters from 2011-15, but the ‘over’ has been a winner the past two games. Utah destroyed UCLA 48-17 as a 9.5-point home favorite last year, with the 65 combined points jumping ‘over’ the 53.5-point tally. Huntley threw for 234 yards and four TDs without an interception, and he rushed 18 times for 93 yards. Moss produced 153 rushing yards and two TDs on 23 attempts.
-- Utah won 52-45 at UCLA as a 3.5-point road underdog in 2016. Both teams scored enough points on their own to get ‘over’ the 42.5-point total.
-- The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for Utah, 2-1 in its road contests. The Utes have watched their games average combined scores of 48.0 PPG.
-- The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for the Bruins, 3-1 in their home outings. They’ve seen their games play to average combined scores of 54.1 PPG.
-- Kickoff is slated for 10:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- If you don’t follow me on Twitter or listen to my Games Galore podcast (feel free to subscribe on i-tunes and those other various pod platforms) or catch me on radio shows as a weekly guest with Chris Vernon (Fridays in Memphis), Sharp & Benning (1620 The Zone in Omaha on Thursday’s at 11:40 a.m. Eastern) or Qualk & Kelly (on The Roar in Clemson), then perhaps you haven’t heard of my recent guarantee? I’ve been suggesting it since the presser announcing the Ohio State head football coach’s three-game suspension, but it’s now been upgraded to GUARANTEE status: Oscar Liar will quit (or perhaps even get fired or agree to some sort of buyout) by Jan. 15 of 2019 at the absolute latest. Trust me, folks! When times get tough, Oscar gets gone. You will see soon…
-- BetOnline.ag has Alabama as the -175 favorite to win the College Football Playoff. If you want the field (any other team), you can get a +145 return. It’s October still, people, and the Crimson Tide is nearly a -200 ‘chalk’ to repeat as national champs. That’s utterly ridiculous, but more than fair. Look, we know we’ve got to let the games play out. Shit happens during a football season. Stuff like injuries, suspensions, chemistry issues, friction between coaching staff members, etc. But the only type of shit that’s going to prevent Nick Saban’s team from winning the CFP is a slew of injuries to at least four starters and one of them must include the Heisman Trophy favorite, sophomore QB Tua Tagovailoa. Otherwise, the Tide is just going to keep on rolling and remember, Tagovailoa is back next year, too. Holy Yikes!
-- Tagovailoa is the -300 ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman at BetOnline.ag. The next-shortest odds belong to Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray (+325), Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins (6/1), PSU’s Trace McSorley (14/1), WVU’s Will Grier (18/1), UCF’s McKenzie Milton (20/1), Kentucky’s Benny Snell (50/1), Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor (50/1) and Oregon’s Justin Herbert (66/1).
-- FAU is a 3.5-point home favorite for Friday’s C-USA matchup vs. La. Tech in Boca Raton. Owls’ starting QB Chris Robison is ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury. Robison has been mediocre this season, anyway, throwing eight TD passes compared to 10 interceptions. He’s run for 183 yards and a pair of scores. Senior safety Jalen Young is also a question mark due to a knee injury. Young was a first-team All-CUSA pick in 2017 when he had 77 tackles and seven interceptions. La. Tech is 3-1 both SU and ATS in four road assignments, with the lone outright defeat coming at LSU. The CBS Sports College Network will have the telecast at 6:30 p.m. Eastern.
-- On FS1 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday, Minnesota (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) will play host to Indiana (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) as a 2.5-point home underdog. The total was 54 late Thursday. Since starting P.J. Fleck’s second campaign with the Gophers 3-0 both SU and ATS, they’ve lost four games in a row against Big Ten competition by margins of 25, 16, 17 and 29 points.
-- 5Dimes.eu has updated some of its Games of the Year lines. Some examples include Texas -3 vs. WVU, Michigan -8.5 vs. PSU, PSU -7 vs. Wisconsin, Ohio State -2.5 vs. Michigan and Notre Dame -7.5 vs. USC.
-- You think TCU (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) head coach Gary Patterson was tired of KeVontae Turpin’s nonsense? When Patterson dismissed him from the program earlier this week after learning about an arrest this past Sunday and another one back in March, he told reporters that he hadn’t even informed Turpin yet but that the senior WR and special-teams ace could find out on Twitter. Turpin had 29 receptions for 410 yards and three TDs. He also returned a punt and a kickoff back for a TD. The Horned Frogs have also lost QB Shawn Robinson to a season-ending injury. Robinson (60.6%) has thrown for 1,326 yards with a mediocre 9/8 TD-INT ratio. Sophomore signal caller Michael Collins will get the starting nod at Kansas. Collins has completed only 13-of-31 throws (41.9%) for 247 yards with a 3/1 TD-INT ratio.
-- Michigan State lost its best WR Felton Davis to a season-ending Achilles injury in last week’s home loss to Michigan. Davis was a second-team All-B10 selection last year when he had 55 receptions for 776 yards and nine TDs. The senior, who has played his last down for the Spartans, had 31 catches for 474 yards and four TDs in seven games this season. Also, QB Brian Lewerke is ‘questionable’ with a shoulder injury (at least as of early Thursday) for this week’s home game vs. Purdue. The Boilermakers have won four games in a row and won over the hearts of America by not only destroying Ohio State, but introducing us to its inspiring fan Tyler Trent, who is courageously battling cancer like the incredible fighter that he is.
-- Wisconsin has been one of the nation’s biggest disappointments, yet it still controls its own destiny to win the Big Ten West. The Badgers might not have three-year starting QB Alex Hornibrook on Saturday at Northwestern, though. Hornibrook (11/6 TD-INT) is ‘questionable’ and in concussion protocol.
-- UMass QB Andrew Ford has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ at UConn due to a leg injury. Ford, who has thrown for 1,340 yards with a 9/5 TD-INT ratio, had a 22/4 TD-INT ratio last season.
Follow Brian Edwards' sports gambling opinions on Twitter at @vegasbedwards.
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