Money-line Plays - Week 11
November 8, 2018
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by Kyle Markus
College Football Week 11 Moneyline Plays
As we enter Week 11, everyone has a pretty good idea on the strength of teams throughout college football. However, there are always upsets every week, and that won’t change this time around. The stakes continue to get higher as the College Football Playoff and conference championship races come down to the final few games of the year.
The moneyline is a good way to go this week as it takes out the uncertainty of a backdoor cover when a game has already been decided. Here are some of the top moneyline plays for this week’s slate of games in NCAA football wagering.
Odds Analysis - per BookMaker.eu
The Northwestern Wildcats have a tough game this week as they hit the road to face off against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Northwestern is a pretty sizable underdog, but this is the type of team that can keep games close and pull upsets. The Wildcats are a great choice on the moneyline at +324 as a road win seems more likely than those odds suggest.
The Oregon Ducks have been tough to figure out this season. They have looked like world beaters one week and very mediocre the next. With that in mind, it makes sense to take the underdog as Oregon takes on Utah on the road this week. The Ducks are listed at +170 but it would not be a surprise at all if it came away with the victory.
The Penn State Nittany Lions are at home this week against the Wisconsin Badgers. Penn State has been solid this season and even though it is the favorite, there seems to be little chance it loses this matchup. Roll with the Nittany Lions to win this contest at -320 on the moneyline.
The LSU Tigers are coming off a huge game against Alabama in which it was shut out. The loss sent a really damaging blow to LSU’s national championship hopes. The Tigers are much better than this week’s foe, the Arkansas Razorbacks, but are on the road and might be dealing with a hangover effect from last week’s game. Arkansas isn’t likely to win, but at +410 odds on the moneyline it is worth the gamble to pull out a shocker at home.
The matchup between the Texas Longhorns and Texas Tech Red Raiders is expected to be a competitive one, as the road team, Texas, is the slight two-point favorites. The oddsmakers believe the Longhorns have more talent, but it’s never easy winning a toss-up game on the road. Texas Tech’s odds of +105 are intriguing. Texas is a good team but the Red Raiders aren’t far behind. Roll with Texas Tech on the moneyline.
One of the best underdogs on the moneyline is the Tennessee Volunteers. They are significant home underdogs against the Kentucky Wildcats. Tennessee isn’t the same program it has been in the past, but should be able to keep this game close and could come away with the win at +195 odds on the moneyline.
NCAA Football ATS Pick
The best wager of the day features the Ohio State Buckeyes on the road against the Michigan State Spartans. Ohio State has not looked great in recent weeks and has ceded control of the Big Ten to rival Michigan. The Buckeyes need to turn it on and this is not an easy game.
Even so, Ohio State has the clear talent advantage. The Buckeyes may be on the road but they should claim this victory. They are -165 favorites to win on the moneyline and that feels like a near-certainty. Those odds are good and an Ohio State win should be chosen with great confidence in NCAA football odds.
NCAA Football ATS Pick: Ohio State to defeat Michigan State as the -165 favorites on the money-line
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