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Futures Forecast
June 5, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
A lot of gamblers are hesitant to make future wagers. First off, you are tying up money that can’t be collected for a long period of time.
But since we are still waiting for betting shops to release season win totals, there’s nothing else to bet on right now in terms of the 2008 college football season. So let’s talk futures.
I like Florida to win the national championship for the second time in three years. The Gators, who have 6/1 odds at Sportsbook.com, will beat USC in the Orange Bowl to win it all.
Obviously, you have to love UF’s offense led by returning Heisman winner Tim Tebow. The offensive line was already good and is going to be better. The running back situation is improved thanks to the presence of redshirt freshman Chris Rainey and USC transfer Emmanuel Moody.
Urban Meyer also has the nation’s premier dual threat in Percy Harvin, who can make explosive plays lining up at both running back and wide receiver. The Gators also have arguably the nation’s best return man in Brandon James. They also have the best tight end in the SEC in Cornelius Ingram.
Most importantly, Florida has a manageable schedule by SEC standards. Yes, Miami returns to the slate, but UF will be at home and the Hurricanes are in the midst of a mediocre stretch.
Back in the 1990s, even-numbered years were especially difficult because the Gators had to play on the road in both Knoxville and Tallahassee. In 2008, the Vols and ‘Noles -- like Miami -- aren’t nearly as formidable as they once were.
The Gators get LSU at home. They replace Auburn, which has beaten UF each of the last two seasons, with Arkansas, which will be in rebuilding mode this year.
What about Georgia? Well, I think the Dawgs probably go into the season with more talent than any program in America. However, UGA has the nation’s toughest schedule – by far.
Mark Richt’s team has a tough trip out west to face Arizona State, which has a four-year starting QB in Rudy Carpenter, not to mention most of the returning nucleus from last year’s 10-win team.
The Dawgs will have to weather a four-week stretch that’s absolutely brutal. It starts in Baton Rouge, followed by Jacksonville, Lexington and Auburn. That’s LSU, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn. That’s four consecutive weeks traveling.
LSU obviously has QB issues, but the Tigers have a great defense and a quartet of explosive running backs. If they get decent QB play, they’re still a top 10 team.
Florida will be in revenge mode against UGA, which won’t have much time to recover from what promises to be a physical and emotional battle against LSU. Plus, Georgia hasn’t beaten UF in back-to-back years since the 1980s.
Back to UGA’s schedule, which also includes home games against Tennessee and Alabama. And there’s always the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech.
All of those factors make me think the Gators will beat Georgia, and that’s why I prefer a future bet of UF (6/1) over UGA (7/1).
I also like two sleeper teams – Missouri (15/1) and Clemson (30/1). And here’s the thing: In all likelihood, both teams would only have to go 11-1 in order to get into their respective conference championship games. And if that happens, I would think both teams would have a decent shot at the BCS title game if they could win their conference titles.
When looking at Missouri’s schedule, you can’t help but notice Oklahoma’s absence (until the Big 12 title game, that is). Yes, the Tigers have to go to Austin, but that game falls immediately after Texas faces Oklahoma, its most bitter rival.
Chase Daniel is back and he’s one of the top 3-4 QBs in the country. Most of the playmakers return and the defense should be improved.
Missouri faces a tough test in its opener against Illinois in St. Louis, but it will cruise through September against non-conference softies. With the exception of the game at Texas, I would think Missouri is going to be favored in every other game on its regular-season schedule.
The Tigers get Kansas St., Oklahoma St. and Colorado at home. They play Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium in KC. With 15/1 odds, I think Missouri is worth consideration.
Ditto for Clemson, which has the country’s best 1-2 punch at RB in C.J. Spiller and James Davis. The Tigers also have Cullen Harper, who was outstanding in 2007 with a 27/6 touchdown-interception ratio.
I know Tommy Bowden’s teams always seem to lose a game it shouldn’t every year (think BC last season), but this squad appears to have the most talent of any ACC outfit.
Until Miami and FSU return to form, the ACC is an average league. Virginia Tech is probably the class program right now, but the Tigers don’t have to face the Hokies in the regular season. The Alabama opener in Atlanta will be tough, as will a Thursday night trip to Wake Forest.
But Clemson gets South Carolina at home, and it has an open date to prepare for back-to-back road games at BC and FSU. If the Tigers take out ‘Bama, their next major test will be against the Demon Deacons, but that’s not until mid-October.
Clemson at 30/1 is worth a shot.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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