New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Game 3 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The New York Yankees will travel to take on the Cleveland Guardians Saturday for game-three of the ALDS. First pitch is scheduled for 7:37 PM ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio and can be viewed on TBS. 

Updated on 05/09/2024

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NEW YORK YANKEES vs. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS BETTING PREDICTION

The Yankees will head to Cleveland with the series tied 1-1 after losing in 10 innings on Friday afternoon. Since Friday’s game was a makeup game from Thursday, there will be no travel day and game-three will take place on Saturday. New York’s offense finished game-two with six hits, two runs, and went 0-7 with runners in scoring position. They had their chances in this game but could not find a way to execute. Starting pitcher Nestor Cortes gave up six hits and two runs in 5.0 innings of work. Five of the other six pitchers used did not give up a hit or run, but Jameson Taillon blew it in the 10th, giving up three hits and two runs. The right-hander Luis Severino (7-3, 3.18 ERA) is scheduled to start game-three.  

Cleveland managed to tie this series at one game apiece and now have the upper hand as they travel back home for two games. The Guardians offense finished game-two with nine hits, four runs, and went 2-11 with runners in scoring position. Five of their nine hits came with two strikes on the board which is huge for a team that relies on small ball to drive in runs. Starting pitcher Shane Bieber gave up five hits and two runs in 5.2 innings of work. The other three pitchers used were near perfect, holding the Yankees to a combined one hit and zero runs in 4.1 innings. Right-handed pitcher Triston McKenzie (11-11, 2.96 ERA) is expected to take the mound Saturday.  

I like the value in the Guardians in game-three with McKenzie taking the mound. New York’s offense has looked a little off in these first two games and I expect that to continue on the road in game-three. I would also count on another low scoring game as Cleveland does not score a ton of runs and likes to beat teams with their bullpen. Backing the Guardians moneyline here in game-three.  

Score Prediction: Guardians 4, Yankees 3
Best Bet: Guardians ML (+102)

NEW YORK YANKEES vs. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS BETTING ODDS

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NEW YORK YANKEES vs. CLEVELAND GUARDIANS BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Saturday, October 15, 2022
• Matchup: AL East vs. AL Central
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Location: Cleveland, Ohio
• Time-TV: 7:37 p.m. ET – TBS
• Expert Picks

NEW YORK YANKEES BETTING ANALYSIS

After losing game-two the Yankees are now 100-64 SU and 73-91 ATS. The total has gone under in six of their last seven games. Following this trend, the total has gone under in five of their last six games against an American League opponent. New York is 13-6 SU in their last 19 games and 6-2 SU in their last eight games against the Guardians.  

New York’s offense has been held to six runs in their first two games of this series. This is not the Yankees offense seen in the regular season when they had a batting average of .241 (15th), on base percentage of .325 (5th), slugging percentage of .426 (4th) and scored 807 runs (2nd). Center fielder Aaron Judge has yet to find a hit in this series, going 0-8 at the plate thus far. Judge has been crucial for this offense all-season and will need to find a way to get things going. Judge is not solely to blame as the entire Yankees offense has not looked good through the first two games of this series. 

The Yankees bullpen held the Guardians to one run in game-one but struggled a bit in game-two, allowing four runs. New York is generally able to win games with their bullpen if the offense is not playing well, but Cleveland has shown just how strong their bullpen is. Throughout the regular season New York’s bullpen held opponents to a batting average of .219 (3rd), had a WHIP of 3.30 (3rd) and team ERA of 3.30 (3rd). Right-handed pitcher Severino is scheduled to start Saturday. Severino went 7-3 SU this season with an ERA of 3.18 and gave up 72 hits, 36 earned runs, and struck out 112 batters in 102.0 innings. This will be the first time Severino has faced the Guardians this season.  

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS BETTING ANALYSIS

After tying up the series on Friday, Cleveland is now 95-71 SU and 88-78 ATS. The total has gone over in six of their last 10 games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in their last six games when playing against an NL East opponent. The Guardians are 5-1 SU in their last six games but 2-6 SU in their last eight games against the Yankees.  

Cleveland’s offense has not been the highest scoring team throughout the season by any means. In fact, they scored just three total runs in the Wild Card series against Tampa Bay and still managed to advance. During the regular season, the Guardians had a batting average of .254 (7th), on base percentage of .316 (12th), slugging percentage of .383 (21st) and scored 698 runs (T-15th). The third baseman Jose Ramirez has been huge for Cleveland this post season, going 5-18 at the plate with one home run and two RBIs. Small ball is how this team will win games as seen in game-two.  

The Guardians bullpen have come up clutch throughout the season, including a 24-6 SU stretch to end the regular season. Cleveland’s bullpen was great in the Wild Card round, holding the Rays to just one run throughout the series and have done a respectable job keeping the Yankees bats at bay as well. During the regular season they held opponents to a batting average of .230 (6th), had a WHIP of 1.16 (5th), and team ERA of 3.46 (6th). The right-hander McKenzie is expected to start game-three. McKenzie went 11-11 SU this season with an ERA of 2.96 and gave up 138 hits, 63 earned runs, and struck out 190 batters in 188.1 innings of work. In his recent Wild Card start, McKenzie gave up two hits and zero runs in 6.0 innings.  

KEY PLAYERS

• NYY: Aaron Judge - RF (Last Game: 0-5)
• NYY: Giancarlo Stanton - DH (Last Game: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, R)
• CLE: Jose Ramirez - 3B (Last Game: 1-5, 2B, R)
• CLE: Amed Rosario - SS (Last Game: 2-5, HR, RBI, R)

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• NYY: TBD
• CLE: Lance McCullers Jr. - RHP (-)