EPL Matchday 9 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for Premier League Matchday 9 fixtures that begin on Saturday, October 1.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham
- Date: Saturday, October 1
- Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Emirates Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Over 2.5 (-160)
It’s almost 15 years since a north London derby where one of the sides kicked off while top of the table. Add in that Tottenham are third and this might be viewed as a crucial battle in the title race.
As it is, Manchester City (-375) are red hot favourites with Liverpool (+700) next in line. This is still an important match irrespective of local bragging rights, though, as neither side has beaten one of the top clubs yet this season, and this could cement their credentials.
Arsenal are favorites while Spurs have only lost two of the last eight meetings. Instead of picking a winner, lets choose goals. Over 2.5 goals has paid out in five of the previous six clashes, and should do so once again.
Bournemouth vs. Brentford
- Date: Saturday, October 1
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Vitality Stadium
- Location: Bournemouth, England
Best Bet: Brentford Win to Nil (+240)
Brentford have won four of their last six games against Bournemouth and are favored by the bookmakers to take three points here too. Priced at +115 to win, a bet on the Bees already looks a good value selection.
But they should keep a clean sheet too. In three home games this season, Bournemouth have generated just 1.1 expected goals. Their upturn in form since dismissing Scott Parker has not been justified by their statistics and Brentford winning to nil looks inevitable.
Southampton vs. Everton
- Date: Saturday, October 1
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Vitality Stadium
- Location: Bournemouth, England
Best Bet: Over 2.5 (-115)
Selecting over 2.5 goals looks an unusual choice for this game. Only one of Everton’s first seven league matches this season has seen at least three goals, and just of the last five meetings between these clubs has too.
But once again the data implies it’s a good selection. There has been an average total of 3.4 expected goals in the matches at St Marys Stadium in 2022/23, and 3.3 when Everton have been on the road.
The misfiring players at both clubs could easily undermine this bet but there should be plenty of chances to give it a strong possibility of paying out.
West Ham vs. Wolverhampton
- Date: Saturday, October 1
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: London Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Draw (+240)
In the four completed seasons since Wolverhampton were promoted to the EPL in the summer of 2018, they earned 212 points and had an average finishing position of 9.3. West Ham United recorded the same point tally on their way to 9.8 on average.
Despite this proximity in performance, there hasn’t been a draw between the teams since 2010, with nine of the last 10 meetings ending with one of the sides winning to nil.
With these clubs entering the weekend as the joint-lowest scoring sides in the division, there is unlikely to be much between them. A draw is long overdue between West Ham and Wolves and this looks likely to be the day for it.
Manchester City vs. Manchester United
- Date: Sunday, October 2
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Etihad Stadium
- Location: Manchester, England
Best Bet: Over 2.5 (-115)
The last meeting of these teams in March almost threatened to be competitive, with Jadon Sancho equalizing for United after City had opened the scoring through Kevin De Bruyne.
But it ended 4-1 with the reigning champions ultimately cruising home. That game aside, it has been commonplace for at least one team in the Manchester derby to end with a nil on their side of the ledger. It occurred in the last six clashes prior to the most recent one.
The odds aren’t expecting it here but the data suggests it’s a good value play, mainly as City give up so few chances at home. Visiting sides have averaged just 5.8 shots per game across the last 10 league games at the Etihad and that stretch includes United’s previous away derby. Backing ‘no’ for both teams to score looks a smart choice.
Leeds United vs. Aston Villa
- Date: Sunday, October 2
- Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Elland Road
- Location: Leeds, England
Best Bet: Over 2.5 (-115)
These teams last met at Elland Road in March and Aston Villa won 3-0. While the score line flattered Steven Gerrard’s side a little, the underlying data did suggest they deserved their victory.
The problem for Villa is that that hasn’t been the case in their eight league games on the road since. Being outplayed at Arsenal is one thing, losing badly at Bournemouth and Crystal Palace is another, and suggests they could struggle here.
The bookmakers have them and Leeds equally priced at the time of writing, but the expected goal numbers lean heavily towards the home side. With little in Villa’s form suggesting they will win, get on Leeds.
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