EPL Matchday 10 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Andrew Beasley is back for best bets, predictions and picks for Premier League Matchday 10 fixtures that begin on Saturday, October 8.
Manchester City vs. Southampton
- Date: Saturday, October 8
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Etihad Stadium
- Location: Manchester, England
Best Bet: Manchester City to Win to Nil (-120)
Despite finishing 15 th in the table last season, Southampton managed to get two draws against Manchester City. However, the meetings either side finished 5-2 and 4-1 to the reigning champions, and a similar score line here feels very probable.
The Saints have a good record of scoring against City. This fixture ended 0-0 in 2021/22, but Southampton netted in their previous seven visits to the Etihad Stadium.
Their away form doesn’t suggest they will this time though. Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side have only averaged 0.9 expected goals per game on the road and three of their four games have been against struggling sides. City should stroll to a win to nil.
Brighton and Hove Albion vs. Tottenham Hotspur
- Date: Saturday, October 8
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Amex Stadium
- Location: Falmer, England
Best Bet: Double chance: Brighton and Hove Albion or X (-185)
The record across the last five meetings of these teams at the Amex Stadium, since Brighton were promoted to the Premier League, is evenly split: two wins apiece and a draw.
The data for 2022/23 is hot on a home win here, and the Seagulls’ excellent performance at Anfield last weekend backs that up. However, Brighton often struggle to turn their dominance at home into wins – in the corresponding fixture last season they had 15 shots but didn’t put any of them on target.
As such, take the double chance option of ‘Brighton or draw’ in case the home team remain as wasteful under Roberto De Zerbi as they were under Graham Potter.
Crystal Palace vs. Leeds United
- Date: Sunday, October 9
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Selhurst Park
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Both teams to score, Yes (-145)
The last three meetings of these teams have seen just three goals in total: two wins to nil for Leeds and a 0-0 draw in April. More pertinent here is that only three clubs in the Premier League have played a higher proportion of matches this season in which both teams scored than Crystal Palace.
As for Leeds, they have the sixth best expected goals per away game in the division. Netting twice at both Southampton and Brentford, Jesse Marsch’s men drew a blank at Brighton but did accumulate 1.2 expected goals in the process.
While the outcome of this match isn’t easy to call, both teams scoring looks worth a bet.
West Ham United vs. Fulham
- Date: Sunday, October 9
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: London Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Draw (+280)
When Fulham were last in the Premier League, two seasons ago, their two matches with West Ham United saw a single goal, and that in the 91 st minute at the London Stadium.
Another low scorer looks on the cards here, particularly as the Hammers’ four home league games this season have seen just eight goals in total. As they face Anderlecht in Belgium on Thursday night this match could easily peter out into a goalless stalemate. A draw seems the most likely outcome.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool
- Date: Sunday, October 9
- Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Emirates Stadium
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Arsenal ML (+150)
Arsenal possesses a wretched recent Premier League record against Liverpool, winning just one of the last 14 meetings. Even then, it occurred after the Reds had secured the title in 2019/20, making it a dead rubber for them.
Mikel Arteta’s side have made much the better start to the season of the two teams though. While the moneyline odds are fairly close, the Gunners should be red hot favourites according to the underlying data. With Liverpool far too porous at the back, a home win looks an excellent value selection.
Everton vs. Manchester United
- Date: Sunday, October 9
- Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Goodison Park
- Location: Liverpool, England
Best Bet: Under 2.5 (-105)
Few people would’ve predicted that Everton would have the best defensive record in the Premier League after eight matches have (mostly) been played, but here we are.
According to the underlying numbers they could easily have conceded twice as many goals. But after their bad derby beating last weekend, Manchester United will likely want to keep this game tight, which will suit Everton perfectly.
Under 2.5 goals has paid out in three of the last four meetings both overall and at Goodison Park specifically. This match should continue the trend.
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