CFL Betting Recap - Week 4
July 16, 2017
By Joe Williams
League Betting Notes Analysis
-- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 4
-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 4
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 4
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 4
-- The 'Over' went 3-1 in Week 4
After underdogs ended up going 8-0 ATS over the first two weekends, normalcy continued in Week 4 with 'dogs splitting 2-2 ATS in Week 4. Hamilton (0-3) didn't help out that trend, however, as they were pounded at home on Saturday night by BC Lions (3-1), not even coming close to covering a three-point number at Tim Horton's Stadium. In fact, the TiCats were the only home team failing to win outright on their home turf on the weekend.
In addition, it was a high-scoring weekend in CFL play. There were 222 points scored in Week 4, second-highest in the league this season. However, the points were more evenly distributed and the 'over' finished in the majority for the first time (3-1). In Week 1, a total of 199 points were scored (under went 3-1). In Week 2, the highest-scoring weekend of the season with 250 points, the over/under split 2-2 with the points mostly scored in two of the matchups. In Week 3, we had the lowest-scoring weekend with just 186 points (under went 3-1).
Ottawa (0-3-1) continues its downward spiral after appearing in the Grey Cup last season. That's mostly because they cannot take care of the football. The RedBlacks are averaging 2.0 turnovers per game through four weekends, highest in the CFL (tied with the Argonauts). It's not surprise they find themselves heading into Week 5 still searching for that elusive first victory.
Team Betting Notes
-- Next up for the RedBlacks will be a date with Montreal (2-2). The Alouettes posted a nice 30-23 win over previously unbeaten Calgary (2-1-1). It was a rare high-scoring game for the Alouettes, who entered on a 3-0 'under' run, averaging just 17.3 points per game. Their defense continues to be the story, however, allowing 23 or fewer points in each game so far, including an amazing three-week run allowing exactly 23 points.
-- Speaking of the Stamps, last season they were cover kings with a league-best 13-5 ATS mark in 18 regular season games. They were also 6-2-1 SU on the road and 15-2-1 SU overall, going 1-1-1 SU over the first three weekends. Might we see a similar run this season after a slow start? After Week 5, the Stamps covered seven in a row in 2016.
-- Edmonton (3-0) picked up a third consecutive wins to open the season, although their narrow win in Ottawa was anything but easy. The Eskimos failed to cover for a second straight weekend while the 'under' cashed for the third time in as many games. Next up for the Esks is a trip east to face winless Hamilton.
-- As mentioned, the TiCats have dropped three in a row to open their season, and they're 0-3 ATS to kick off the season. A lack of offense and a lack of defense is not a very good mix for success. Hamilton is averaging just 20.3 points per game while yielding 36.7 PPG. The 'over' has hit in two straight for Hamilton, as they have allowed 78 points during the span.
-- The Lions won and covered for the third consecutive outing. They dropped 41 points in Hamilton, their most prolific offensive performance of the season. BC wrapped up an impressive 3-0 SU/ATS East Coast swing through Toronto, Montreal and Hamilton, but there won't be much time to celebrate. They have a tough home game Friday night against Winnipeg (2-1).
-- The Blue Bombers travel to BC on Friday, and they're 1-0 SU/ATS on the road this season. The Bombers look for revenge after being ousted 32-31 from the postseason in BC on Nov. 13, 2016. The Bombers had success against the Lions in the 2016 regular season, however, winning and covering each meeting. In fact, Winnipeg is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS over the past four regular season meetings with British Columbia.
-- Toronto (2-2) dropped a 33-25 decision in WPG, as consistency hasn't been their strong suit to date. They have alternated wins and losses through the first four weeks, doing the same against the number (2-2 ATS). The Argonauts are also tied with the RedBlacks for the most turnovers (eight) in the CFL through Week 4.
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