Kentucky Derby Betting Guide: The 147th Run for the Roses

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

22 minute read

Apr. 8, 2021

by VI News
VegasInsider.com

Our 147th Kentucky Derby betting guide includes some crucial information about one of the most famous horse races in the world, the Kentucky Derby, which will take place on Saturday, May 1, 2021.

Keep reading our article and discover all about Kentucky Derby online betting sites, Kentucky Derby odds, and learn how to bet on the Derby.

Kentucky Derby Betting Rankings

VegasInsider.com Horse Racing expert Anthony Stabile provides his "Stabile's Seven" rankings throughout the Kentucky Derby prep trail.

His latest rankings have a new-comer, Known Agenda.

The horse looked sharp in the Florida Derby and will get more attention in this year's Kentucky Derby. Moving out of the rankings was Collaborate.

Stabile's Seven - Power Rankings

1. Essential Quality
2. Highly Motivated
3. Rock Your World
4. Rombauer
5. Mandaloun
6. Known Agenda
7. TBA

(Updated 4.8.21)

The Stabile Seven Rankings are your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 147 on Saturday May 1 at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

In the coming weeks, Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years’ Run for the Roses on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, April 30 with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Stabile's Seven Betting Analysis

(Number of points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard)

1) Essential Quality (140)

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Jockey: Luis Saez

It’s rare that a race plays out on the track how it figures to on paper but that’s pretty much what happened when he stayed undefeated by grinding past Highly Motivated in a stirring Blue Grass stretch battle. I’m sure his connections are thrilled he finally got his hands dirty a bit as his other wins have come pretty handily. He did not get much faster on speed figures but he at least has a stiff test under his belt. It’s sad to say this about a horse that’s never lost a race, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but I’m underwhelmed by him and this crop in general right now regarding the Derby. He’s a nice horse but ordinarily I’d be looking to bet against a horse like him as the first or second choice. This year I feel he is the likeliest winner.

2) Highly Motivated (50)

• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Jockey: Javier Castellano

He did everything right in the Blue Grass except win. Got to the front, set moderate fractions and separated himself from all but one on the turn. Unfortunately for his backers, that one got him late in the game. Still, for his first start beyond a mile, around two turns and setting the pace you have to applaud him. He’ll be making his third start of the year and be in his usual stalking position come Derby Day. I’m worried he just got plain tired in the final furlong last out and will now have to deal with an additional one like most of the others do. He’s plenty talented, that’s for sure. I’m just not sold on him going this far.

3) Rock Your World (100)

• Trainer: John Sadler
• Jockey: Umberto Rispoli

With Life Is Good out and many not sold on the others in California, it felt like the Santa Anita Derby was crying for a big effort from someone and this guy provided it. A perfect two-for-two on turf, he went right to the lead in his dirt debut, improved at every pole and if the Derby were being run before the final two preps this weekend he’d be the only horse with a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure. Sadler is going to have to take his show on the road, something he has not been able to do on a consistent basis, but if he can, this is a dangerous horse.

4) Rombauer (34)

• Trainer: Mike McCarthy
• Jockey: Florent Geroux

When this horse is sitting third in the early going, you know the pace is slow. I thought he ran really well in the Blue Grass considering how out of his element he was. He should appreciate more ground and a return to his one-run style in the Derby. He’s likely a cut below these as far as talent goes but with the right set up that final furlong has proven to be the great equalizer for horses far worse than him.

5) Mandaloun (52)

• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Jockey: Florent Geroux

The Lexington entries came out and he wasn’t entered so it will be six weeks from his Louisiana Derby flop to Louisville. This horse ran a race in the Risen Star that puts him right there with this bunch. I am a believer in a horse having a bad day/race therefore I am drawing a line through his last. Some don’t subscribe to the theory and that is understandable. If you do you figure to get a much bigger than you probably should on him.

6) Known Agenda (102)

• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Just a month ago, Pletcher was on the outside looking in regarding the Derby. As we sit here approximately three weeks before the race he has FOUR runners. This horse won the Florida Derby, Sainthood was second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway the same day and just last week, Bourbonic and Dynamic one ran one-two in the Wood Memorial. I don’t know about the other three but this horse has a bit of a chance and retains the hottest jockey on the planet.

7) TBA - One of four runners in the Arkansas Derby

In honor of Wrestlemania 37, the winner of the final prep on the Derby Trail gets a spot on Stabile’s Seven next week. Concert Tour looks to stay undefeated having defeated the other three fighting for the spot most recently in the Rebel, also at Oaklawn. Stablemate/runner-up Hozier made up ground late while continuing to improve from start to start. Super Stock fought through some traffic to finish fourth and should improve as the distances get longer. Beaten favorite Caddo River, rated last out, allowing Concert Tour an uncontested lead, WILL be sent from the bell this time around. He’ll get a chance to prove himself while employing his most powerful weapon.

Who is the Big A?

VegasInsider.com Horse Racing expert Anthony Stabile provides his "Stabile's Seven" rankings throughout the Kentucky Derby prep trail.

Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday.

Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile

2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds

The 2021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pools began in November and concluded at the end of March.

Kentucky Derby Odds Breakdown

The final wager has ended and the Pool 5 Kentucky Derby Contenders are listed below:

• Essential Quality 4/1
• Concert Tour 11/2
• Greatest Honour 9/1
• Hot Rod Charlie 12/1

Top Kentucky Derby Betting Bonuses

Kentucky Derby Betting Leaderboard

We’d like to start our Kentucky Derby online betting guide by presenting the current top 10 on the leaderboard. Here you can find the horse racing results from the Road to Kentucky Derby prep races, as well as a list of their trainers and jockeys. As far as online racebooks go, our favorite is definitely TVG, so visit them from the leaderboard below to sign up and bet on the Kentucky Derby.

The 2021 Kentucky Derby Prep schedule features all of the upcoming races and the winners of the previous major events that already took place.

Kentucky Derby Online Betting 2021

Betting on the Kentucky Derby is something that hundreds of thousands of fans are looking forward to because of all the excitement the race brings. The thrill isn’t just in guessing the next Kentucky Derby winner-- there are many other betting options for those who know where and how to look for them.

The odds and predictions will change as the 147th Kentucky Derby draws nearer. Some prefer early Kentucky Derby online betting, while others wait for the day of the Run for the Roses to place their bets. Both these practices have their pros and cons. Ultimately, everything depends on your personal preference.

Also, before you decide who to bet on, you should take into consideration some of the important factors such as the weight, age and form of every horse. Don’t forget to find out more information about their past performances, their jockeys and trainers.

These are the details that can help you make your own horse racing betting strategy. Not only will this knowledge be helpful for the first leg of the American Triple Crown, but will also apply for the Belmont Stakes and Preakness Stakes.

However, choosing the right operator is one of the most important things when it comes to Kentucky Derby online betting. We choose some of the best Kentucky Derby online betting websites where you can also stream the race, so make sure to visit them and see what they have to offer:

• TVG (4NJBets + PABets)
• AmWager
• BetAmerica
• TwinSpires
• NYRA Bets
• DRF Bets
• Xpressbet
• Betfair Exchange

Morning-Line Odds for the Kentucky Derby aren't available until the week of the race and those are created by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. The official morning-line odds are announced after the post positions for the field have been set, which is normally announced on Wednesday before Saturday's race. Prior to the draw, gamblers can check out fixed odds at various betting shops.

TVG Welcome Offer: Get up to a $300 risk-free bet with a new TVG account

In order to qualify for this offer, as soon as you open a new account, you should place a single horse win-bet. If you lose, the operator will put up to $300 right back into your account as a wagering credit.

As you may know, TVG is one of the most popular sites for horse racing betting in the USA. But what makes it so great? Apart from the quality of welcome offers and current Kentucky Derby betting promotions, the operator comes with a bunch of other great stuff.

First of all, we want to say that the operator is exclusively focused on horse racing. It doesn’t feature any other sport, but if you are on the lookout for great horse racing action, then you’ll be in the right place.

TVG is the go-to place for online horse racing betting, including Kentucky Derby online betting. You can also find betting on the Breeders Cup or Kentucky Oaks. The operator offers some of the best horse racing odds, live streaming and betting services.

In the horse racing schedule on the website, you can easily find all upcoming events. For your convenience, TVG has also created a dedicated mobile application that you can easily download and use to place your bets or keep an eye on existing ones.

AmWager Welcome Bonus: $500 signup bonus

AmWager has prepared a special welcome offer for all new users who register for the very first time. It is one of the best US online horse betting platforms. Fully dedicated to its users, the brand always strives to provide you with the best possible quality of services.

It is available in the following states: AL, AK, CT, DE, FL, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, MI, MT, NH, NY, ND, OH, OR, RI, SD, TN, VT, WI. Only new users who are over the age of 21 or 18 in some states are eligible for the welcome offer and can open a new user account.

How to Bet with AmWager

AmWager horse betting is a straightforward and simple process. Once you register, you’ll be able to deposit funds to your account and then start placing bets on your favorite runners. It doesn’t matter if you are interested in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes betting options or something else-- the brand covers all the major horse racing events.

The brand offers a massive range of betting markets, referred to as “pools”. Depending on the race and event, you can find various pools. Also, some of them might be limited only to specific types of races, specific tracks or events.

The following types of bets can be found on the operator’s official website: bet to win, bet to place, bet to show, exacta bet, trifecta bet, superfecta bet, double bet, pick 3 bet, etc.

In one of the following sections of our Kentucky Derby online betting guide, we include a special glossary where all these types of bets are shortly explained. If you are not familiar with them, make sure to check it out before you start your betting adventure.

It is also important to know that you can access the AmWager platform from a browser of your desktop computer or mobile device, but you can also download and install the AmWager mobile app.

The AmWager app is available both for iOS and Android users. Furthermore, the download procedure is pretty straightforward. With the app on your mobile device, you can check out the status of your bets anytime, from the comfort of your smartphone.

History of the Kentucky Derby Race

Capping the two-week-long Kentucky Derby Festival, the race is also known as "the most exciting two minutes in sports".

Popularly called the Run for the Roses because of the blanket of roses draped over the Derby winner, the first Derby took place in 1875. Since then, it has been held annually in Louisville, Kentucky without interruption-- not even during the Great Depression and both World Wars.

The Kentucky Derby is usually the first leg of the American Triple Crown, followed by the Preakness Stakes and then the Belmont Stakes. This year, however, Belmont is up first due to the new race season schedule.

Now, if a horse manages to win all three races, it’s the winner of the Triple Crown. However, only 13 horses have been able to do it so far.

The last horse to win the Triple Crown was Justify in 2018, who was the favorite for winning the Kentucky Derby right from the start. In the 2019 Derby, even though Maximum Security was the first one to cross the finish line, he was disqualified for interference, and Country House was declared the winner of the 145th edition of the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Winners (Last 10)

2020 - Authentic
2019 - Country House
2018 - Justify
2017 - Always Dreaming
2016 - Nyquist
2015 - American Pharoah
2014 - California Chrome
2013 - Orb
2012 - I'll Have Another
2011 - Animal Kingdom

A Few Words about Kentucky Derby Online Betting

When it comes to the 2021 Kentucky Derby, it could be any horse’s race. Make sure to check the odds on one of the websites we’ve recommended you above and keep an eye on them.

Kentucky Derby online betting is a much-beloved tradition for many people, and therefore all these online betting operators try their best to provide users with an excellent betting experience.

Many of these operators even offer the possibility of live streaming so you can watch the race from the comfort of one device. However, in order to watch the Kentucky Derby online, you need to register with an operator of your choice.

The majority of Kentucky Derby online betting operators have adopted the “bet and watch” concept. Basically, you need to have placed a bet in the past 24 hours in order to watch a race’s livestream.

There’s nothing more exciting than watching a live stream of your favorite Kentucky Derby contenders and rooting for them to achieve Triple Crown glory. Without a doubt, the Kentucky Derby is one of the most important events in the American sporting calendar.

Whether you decide to watch the race directly from the racecourse, from the Kentucky Derby online betting mobile application or on the operator’s official website, exciting action is guaranteed. In order to be fully prepared to make bets, bettors look at the odds months in advance.

How to Bet on Kentucky Derby Lines

After going through some of the currently available predictions and analyzing the horses’ forms and past performances, the next logical step when it comes to Kentucky Derby online betting is to actually place a bet. In our guide, we’ll go through some of the basic steps that you usually need to follow when it comes to betting with different online bookmakers.

First of all, you need to visit an online sportsbook offering the possibility to bet on the Kentucky Derby. We have included a list of such operators at the beginning of our article. Feel free to take a look at them and choose the one that suits your style of betting.

Once you visit one of the websites, you’ll need to register in order to access the operator’s services. Keep in mind that the vast majority of these online sportsbooks offer certain welcome promotions for all new users who register for the very first time.

Importantly, don’t forget to go through the operator’s terms and conditions and see what requirements must be met in order to get the available bonus.

As soon as you register, you gain access to the available betting markets. Let’s go through some of the most popular Kentucky Derby online betting options and see what the possible choices are:

Different Types of Kentucky Derby Online Betting

After signing in to your online sportsbook account, you’ll need to select the track of the race of your choice, then pick one or more races you'd like to bet on. Next, select your runner and wager type. Finally, all you have to do is enter the amount you’d like to wager and submit your bet slip.

Before you start placing your first bets, we want to make sure that you are well aware of all the betting options available when it comes to Kentucky Derby online betting.

Therefore, let’s take a quick look at some of the popular types of bets:

Early betting

Kentucky Derby future wagering is a great option for all those who enjoy early betting. This type of bet is usually available during different runnings of the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” prep races.

Win, Place & Show Bets

Win, place and show bets are types of wagers that new players usually stick to. Just like the name suggests, a win bet is a bet placed on the horse that you hope to win the Kentucky Derby.

With place bets, you can get a return if your selection finishes first, second, or sometimes even fourth or fifth depending on the bookie’s offer. It goes without saying that the odds are much lower, but this type of bet is more reassuring.

Show bet is the next in line. It’s quite simple - you win if your selection finishes in the top three. As you probably imagine, this bet comes with lower risk, but also a lower payoff.

Of course, it’s up to you to decide which one of these options is the best for you. There are also some other, maybe slightly more complicated types of wagers. But once you get familiar with them, you’ll see that they can be easily understood. So, let’s get started!

Exacta Bet

If you’ve already tried some of the previous types of bets and you’d like to try something new when it comes to Kentucky Derby online betting, exacta is the next one on our list we’d like to discuss.

In this type of bet, you have to choose two runners who you’ll think will finish first and second, but in exact order. That’s what makes this type of bet more complicated compared to those we discussed earlier. Of course, bigger risk means bigger potential payouts.

Trifecta Bet

Another type of bet that you can try is trifecta bet. It’s similar to an exacta, but just like the name suggests, this type of wager involves three horses. Choose three runners you think will finish in the top three, in the exact order, and wait for the outcome of the race.

If the “exact order” part of the bet is what bothers you, there’s another option called a boxed trifecta wager. With this modified trifecta bet, you also have to choose three horses, but the order is not important.

Kentucky Derby Online Betting Odds

The good news is that thanks to the various Kentucky Derby online betting options, you don’t have to be at Churchill Downs to place your bets. You can place a bet online as long as you are in one of the states where Kentucky Derby online betting is available.

With our Kentucky Derby betting guide, we want to point out some of the most important aspects of this exciting betting adventure. However, it’s all up to you – you choose when to place a bet. You can rely on early Kentucky Derby online betting or you can place bets just a few minutes before the windows close.

There’s one thing to keep in mind: don’t forget to regularly check the Kentucky Derby online betting odds. Odds can change from one day to the next. Most of all, make sure to compare the odds offered by different bookmakers.

When it comes to odds, it won’t hurt to know how they are calculated. They are determined by a Pari-Mutuel System. In other words, the odds are dependent on the peoples’ wagers.

Once the specific amount bet on a horse is determined, that amount is compared to how much is bet on the other horses in the field and the bookies determine the odds. That’s why odds constantly change, and why the more money is bet on a particular horse, the lower odds he’ll get.

Ready for Kentucky Derby Betting?

There’s no easy way to create a successful Kentucky Derby online betting strategy. To sum up, we’d like to once again go through some of the most important things to remember when it comes to betting on the most exciting two minutes in sports.

First of all, make sure to know who you are betting on before you decide to place a bet. Because of this, it is important to do some research in advance. We don’t say that it's a guaranteed way to bet successfully-- luck also plays an important role. However, it’s good to do everything you can to try and prevent unpleasant surprises.

Make sure to consider all the important factors, including the horse’s past performance and jockeys’ and trainers’ histories. Don’t forget to find out what style of races your horse is good at, and what types of tracks they prefer. For example, when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, horses that had some success on a dirt track might be the promising ones.

Also, keep an eye on the favorites, but don’t forget to check the underdogs too. We never know what might happen. That’s where the whole excitement in the Kentucky Derby online betting comes from.

Last but not least, once you choose your horse(s), find an online sports betting platform that suits your style. If you are opening a new account for the first time, make sure to check the currently available promotions and let the fun begin!

VegasInsider Staff

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