Tampa Bay Derby Picks, Predictions, Odds

The 148th Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place on Saturday May 7, 2022 from Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby prep schedule continues to heat up during the months of March and April.

VegasInsider horse racing expert Anthony Stabile will be providing his Free Picks and Finish Predictions for key races throughout the prep season and he's focusing on one race for Saturday Mar. 12, 2022 -- the 2022 Tampa Bay Derby.

Tampa Bay Derby Resources

• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Post-Time: 5:23 p.m. ET
• Race: 11
• Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/16 Miles
• Qualification: Three-year-olds
• Track: Tampa Bay Downs
• Location: Oldsmar, Florida

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Tampa Bay Derby Betting Analysis

1) GRANTHAM (20-1)

Cuts back to a slightly shorter trip for his first local try and his fourth race at as many different venues. His pilot won this race 2 years ago with King Guillermo. Lone win came on synthetic footing and though he’s been working better on dirt of late, he’s got his work cut out for him today.

2) TRADEMARK (30-1)

Gelding was sent off a big price in the local prep for this while making his first start since late fall and stopped abruptly. His 2 wins came on the front end at this trip in Kentucky so maybe his connections decide to push him hard from the opening bell while moving to an inside draw, but he’ll likely have the Morning Line favorite Classic Causeway to deal with from the outset today. Rider Daniel Centeno has won this race twice, most recently with Ring Weekend in 2014.

3) HAPPY BOY ROCKET (12-1)

Showed significant improvement stretching out to win his second career start at Gulfstream Park but that came against maidens. Waters get deeper here though he does have a right to keep getting better and he resides in a barn (won this race in 2019 with Tacitus) that does nice work developing young runners.

4) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (8-5)

Morning line choice is one of just 3 stakes winners in this field and he did it fine front running fashion while prepping for this in the G3 Sam F. Davis last month. Classy colt has done his best on the lead so expect he’ll again be hustled to the top while retaining the services of the nation’s Eclipse Award winning pilot. He’s yet to run a truly fast race and he’ll take plenty of tote support in this big field, but they’ll probably have to come and get him in the lane to win.

5) GIANT GAME (10-1)

Third place finisher in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile last fall disappointed in his return try in the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park last month but has returned to work rather well for this. He’s reunited with the rider aboard for his maiden route score last fall and does figure to take a step forward with his last behind him. Could be one to outrun his price.

6) GOLDEN GLIDER (12-1)

Didn’t have enough to threaten some of these off a solid trip on the rise to the stakes ranks in his prep for this last month. His barn has won this race twice, most recently with Helium in last year’s renewal. His late run in both starts against cheaper was impressive but he’ll need to find more than what he showed in that last one to compete at this level.

7) STRIKE HARD (8-1)

Got solid, contested fractions in front of him when chasing in the G3 Davis, but after breaking from a wide draw lost a bunch of ground while making his late run. He will get a huge rider switch today and he has shown the ability to stay close to a quick pace. Sharp gate breeze last weekend suggests he may be ready to take a good step forward at a nice price.

8) MAJOR GENERAL (9-2)

Gutted out scores in each of his starts including the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs but he’ll return from nearly 6 full months on the shelf today. His barn has won this race 5 times and they teamed up with today’s pilot Javier Castellano to score aboard Destin in 2016. He has ability, and this outfit is simply on fire at this meeting, but expect we’ll see a lot better from him with this try behind him.

9) SHIPSATIONAL (5-1)

New York bred stakes winner showed he clearly belongs at this level after finding himself much further off the pace than usual in the Davis but still finishing with interest in that initial 2 turn attempt. He does have nearly 4 lengths to make up on today’s rival Classic Causeway from that one and his rider opts to stick with the runner drawn to his immediate inside here, but he’s been working like a killer of late and can’t be overlooked.

10) BELGRADE (20-1)

Had to work a little harder than he should have while facing entry level allowance runners here last time out bit it has just his second career start and he did have some trouble early. Barn did win this race in 2014 with Ring Weekend. Hasn’t run very fast, though, and he will be trying 2 turns for the initial time today. Others offer more appeal.

11) MONEY SUPPLY (10-1)

Exits a fast sprint debut score for a barn that is hotter than the surface of the sun with its runners here this winter. His rider has won this race twice, most recently in 2019 with Tacitus. There are obstacles to clear here such as the move to 2 turns, an outside draw and the rise to face winners, but the way he rallied from the back of the pack to roll past the field suggests this guy may be ok to outrun the distance limitations his pedigree boasts.

12) SPIN WHEEL (20-1)

Gets the worst of the post draw after showing little in his first start of the year in the Holy Bull. Maybe he’s better with that one in the rear view mirror and the price will again be big on a runner who does own some solid late pace figures.

Tampa Bay Derby Best Bets

IF I’M RIGHT…

1. (5) GIANT GAME
2. (4) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY
3. (11) MONEY SUPPLY

4 - CLASSIC CAUSEWAY is let loose from the bell and secures the lead going down the backside with 2 - TRADEMARK in close pursuit.

9 – SHIPSATIONAL and 11 – MONEY SUPPLY both settle mid-pack and make runs towards the leaders, but 5 – GIANT GAME is the one who takes the big step forward and runs past them all to win over 4 - CLASSIC CAUSEWAY with 11 – MONEY SUPPLY getting up for third money.