May 19, 2017
By Micah Roberts
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Cleveland (20-19) at Houston (29-12)
Series Price: Astros -135, Indians +115
Scheduled Rotation: Bauer (3-4) vs. Morton (5-2), Clevinger (1-1) vs. Fiers (1-1), Salazar (2-4) vs. Musgrove (3-3)
The Astros are running away with the American League West with a 7.5 game lead over Texas, the team that won the division last season. They have baseball's best record, and more importantly they have been the most profitable team at the bet window with +13.6 units. The good news for the Indians this weekend is that they'll miss Dallas Keuchel who leads the AL in wins (7) and ERA (1.84). Because of Keuchel missing the series, Station Casinos has posted the Astros as a short -135 favorite to win the series.
The Indians come in with with the best bullpen in baseball with a 1.96 ERA and converting all 11 of its save opportunities. Colorado has the second-best save percentage (90.48) converting 19 of 21. It's basically a lockdown with the Indians when the starter comes out which makes it hard to believe their record isn't better than it is. Only 25 runs allowed in 116.2 innings with opponents hitting .203 is incredible. The main reason why the Indians don't have a better record is because the starting rotation, which was supposed to be one of the best in baseball. They have a 4.95 ERA which ranks 28th.
One trend to take note of between these two clubs is going 21-6-2 to the 'under' in the last 29 meetings. The best value of the weekend is probably taking the Indians and 'under' on Sunday with Danny Salazar on the hill.
Toronto (18-24) at Baltimore (23-16)
Series Price: Orioles -155, Blue Jays +135
Scheduled Rotation: Sanchez (0-1) vs Tillman (1-0), Bolsinger (0-2) vs. Gausman (2-3), Estrada (2-2) vs. Miley (1-1)
After winning seven of eight games the Blue Jays found themselves in trouble during the week losing three of four to the Braves. The good news for them is that their bats are hot. They've been crushing the ball and have gone 'over' in their last four games. The Orioles come off an awful 1-6 road trip, but home is where their heart is. They've gone 16-5 in their last 21 home games. Toronto has gone 9-2 to the 'over' in their last 11 road games. However, 12 of the past 14 meetings between these two cubs have stayed 'under' the number.
Colorado (26-16) at Cincinnati (19-21)
Series Price: Reds -120, Rockies +100
Scheduled Rotation: Anderson (2-4) vs Bonilla (0-1), Senzatela (6-1) vs. Adleman (2-2), Freeland (4-2) vs. Arroyo (3-3)
And the Reds have finally come back to reality. Pittsburgh is still in last place of the NL Central, but the Reds should be there soon and it might happen this weekend. But somehow they're the favorite to win the series despite playing the NL West-leading Rockies and riding a six-game losing streak. The best value of the weekend should be Saturday with Antonio Senzatela who has been the third most profitable pitcher in baseball at +6.8 units. The Rockies have won seven of his eight starts. The Rockies have stayed 'under' in 10 of their last 14 games, but Senatela has gone 'over' in his last five starts after staying 'under' in his first three.
Texas (22-20) at Detroit (20-19)
Series Price: Tigers -150, Rangers +130
Scheduled Rotation: Martinez (0-2) vs. Norris (2-2), Griffin (4-0) vs. Verlander (3-3), Darvish (4-2) vs. Boyd (2-3)
The hard charging Rangers have won nine straight coming into this series -- all as favorites, but come into this series as an underdog which I believe offers great value. Yu Darvish comes off a fantastic outing and should win on Sunday and A.J. Griffin is having a career year so far and should be able compete with Justin Verlander on Saturday. Most of all, this Rangers squad is on fire. Why stop betting them to win? Also, Texas has won nine of the past 12 meetings. And something to also think of this weekend if that Detroit is 2-7 in their last nine games as a favorite.
NY Yankees (24-14) at Tampa Bay (21-22)
Series Price: Yankees -125, Rays +105
Scheduled Rotation: Severino (2-2) vs. Ramirez (2-0), Tanaka (5-2) vs. Andriese (3-1), Sabathia (3-2) vs. Archer (3-2)
The first-place Yankees are up +8.4 units of profit for bettors and lead baseball with a +1.6 average margin of victory (5.8 to 4.2). They've been a great 'over' team at 23-15 which is a winner for bettors 60.5 percent of the time. Early on the Yankees were looked at as a team that was great at home but struggled on the road, but now they're the road warriors going 8-2 in their last 10 on the road. Something to take note of in this series is that the Rays have been cashing in as underdogs going 6-2 in their last eight.
Kansas City (17-23) at Minnesota (20-17)
Series Price: Twins -130, Royals +110
Scheduled Rotation: Karns (2-2) vs. Santiago (4-2), Kennedy (0-3) vs. Wilk (0-1), Hammel (1-5) vs. Hughes (4-2)
The Royals are 3-9 in their last 12 road games and 3-10 in their last 13 as a favorite, so be careful this weekend even though they're hitting the ball with much more authority than the first five weeks of the season. The Twins have gone 8-3-1 to the 'over' in their last 12 home games, but the road has been where they've had more success. They're 11-5 on the road and only 9-12 at home. However, they're in first-place of the ultra-competitive AL Central. It's only a one-game lead over the Tigers and Indians, but it's still impressive considering they were supposed to finish last in the division. Last is where the Royals are and they have the worst margin of victory in the AL at -42 runs.
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5-1 L6 Picks, 5-1 L6 G-Plays
3 Straight Playoff Winners
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