Wednesday's Top Wager
July 11, 2018
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Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
By Phil Simon
One reason why the Los Angeles Angels are 10 games behind the Seattle Mariners for the second AL Wild Card is their lack of success against them.
Entering Tuesday’s matchup, the Halos had dropped six of the previous nine meetings this season. But with their offense showing signs of life, the Angels grabbed the series opener by rapping out 15 hits.
The AL West rivals played three series prior to this one with all of them taking place in the Pacific Northwest. Coming off an extended road trip that saw them go 3-7, the Angels are happy to be home. They’ve won three of the first four on their six-game homestand.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Date and Time: Wednesday, July 11, 2018, 10:07 p.m. ET
Location: Angel Stadium of Anaheim, Anaheim, CA
MLB Odds: Seattle +100, Los Angeles -110, O/U 8.5
Probable Pitchers: Marco Gonzales vs. Jaime Barria
TV Coverage: MLB Network
While they’ve slowed down recently, the Mariners are still in a good spot in the AL standings. They have just two wins in their last six games, a stretch that started with a loss to the Angels in Safeco. But they are six games up in the wild card race and only four behind Houston for the division lead.
It’s been a surprising first half run for the M’s and they’ve done it by playing well in close games and in extra time. The M’s are a MLB-best 26-11 in one-run games and they have yet to lose in eight extra-inning contests.
Despite hitting nearly .260 as a team with the 10th-best OPS in baseball, the Mariners have struggled to score runs. They average just 4.3 per game to rank 20th in the Majors and their run differential is plus-11, even though they are 22 games over .500. The M’s are 6-4 against the Angels this season but they’ve been outscored 51-45 in those games.
It’s going to be difficult for the Angels to stay in the race with their beat up pitching staff. And they may have lost another starter on Tuesday when Garrett Richards left in the third inning with a forearm injury. J.C. Ramirez is done for the year while three other starters are currently on the disabled list.
The offense needs to take over and it did on Tuesday with a 15-hit attack that featured home runs from Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun, who’s been hot lately. He had three hits on Tuesday, including his sixth homer, and five of his dingers have come in the past 18 games after he hit just one in the first 51 outings.
We get a pitching matchup we saw just a week ago when Marco Gonzales bested Jaime Barria and the Angels 4-1 on July 5. Gonzales got the win scattering five hits over six innings. Barria was saddled with the loss after giving up two runs on five hits in 5.1 innings of work. The Mariners are 12-6 in games started by Gonzalez, including 3-0 against the Halos, though they all came in Seattle.
Marco Gonzales (9-5, 3.64 ERA) has the most wins on the Mariners staff and he’s emerged as a quality arm after making only 14 starts in his previous four seasons. He silenced the Angels in his last start, giving up five hits and one run in six innings to pick up his ninth win of the season and first in five career starts against them.
Gonzales will face the Angels for the fourth time this season but the first time on the road. He’s given up eight runs on 21 hits over 17 innings for a 4.24 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his previous three games. He’s also had a tougher time on the road overall this year with a 4.29 ERA and nine of his 10 homers allowed in 53.1 innings pitched.
Thrust into the Angels rotation due to injuries, Jaime Barria ( 5-5, 3.39 ERA ) is looking for his first win in since June 1. He’s lost his last four decisions and is winless in five straight with a 4.74 ERA in that span. He worked 5.1 innings against the M’s in his last outing allowing five hits and two runs.
Mariners at Angels Picks
The Angels are ecstatic to be home after a lengthy and unsuccessful road trip and it’s showed in their play. They took two of three from the Dodgers before exploding in the opener. They’ve also enjoyed success at home against the M’s and they have a few more opportunities to sneak back into the playoff picture with more games against Seattle. The M’s are a good story this season, but they are ready to come back to the pack and the Halos will take advantage of a team that’s slumping right now.
Mariners at Angels Pick: Angels -110 and the Under at BookMaker.eu
Mariners at Angels Score Prediction: Los Angeles 5, Seattle 3
7-1 L4 Days, 19-6 Run, 5-0 G-Plays
7-1 Picks, 5-0 Totals, 11-3 G-Plays
6-2 +438 L4 Days, +2,472 TY
9-4 Totals, 7-3 G-Plays, +3,677 TY
4-0 +455 L4, 9-3 +616 L12 Picks
4-1 L5 Guarantees, +1,410 Overall
12-5 G-Plays, 14-6 +873 Pick Streak
13-6 L19 G-Plays, +2,621 TY
6-3 L9, 16-7 Run, +2,347 Overall
8-4 L12, 27-12 +1,484 L39 G-Plays
5-2 Last 7 Guaranteed Plays
4-2 L6, 8-4 +427 L12 Picks
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