1-TCU...Assuming resourceful d.c. Dick Bumpas fields another voracious stop unit that resembles the past two editions that have allowed only 12 ppg, the Frogs might be able to make another run at an unbeaten mark and the BCS. The offense, led by sr. QB Andy Dalton, is loaded after producing school record-breaking numbers last season that included a whopping 37 ppg. But a modest non-league slate means there’s no room for slip-ups in the "poll" game, and this fall’s expected MWC showdown is on the road at revenge-minded Utah. Despite dealing with increasingly heavier imposts, Patterson’s TCU has continued to provide great pointspread value (38-21 vs. line since ‘05; 20-6 at home that span!). POINTSPREAD TRENDS WORTH NOTING: The Frogs are 19-6 their last 25 laying double digits since late 2005, and have covered their opening game in each of the past five seasons.

2-Utah... We’re beginning to take Utah’s excellence for granted, and another banner season could be on tap as long as HC Kyle Whittingham (as usual) can fill in some of gaps on defense. Expect more from an offense that now has an established leader in Jordan Wynn and is much further along than it was at this time a year ago. Although don’t expect a warm greeting for the Utes anywhere on the Mountain West trail this fall as they prepare for their move to the Pac-10 (soon to be Pac-12) next season. Still, If things break right (as they’ve done in the past at Salt Lake City), another run at the BCS is not out of the question. POINTSPREAD TRENDS WORTH NOTING: Although not often an underdog, the Utes are a sparkling 22-6 vs. the number getting points over the past ten seasons, and they’ve covered 7 of their last 8 bowl appearances.

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3-BYU... By November, BYU might be formidable, especially if true frosh QB Jake Heaps lives up to the hype. At the outset, however, either a young Heaps or pocket-sized Utah State transfer Riley Nelson figure to be downgards from the prolific Max Hall, not in the Arizona Cardinals; camp. But perhaps relying on a true frosh QB, plus star RB Harvey Unga having left school, and a rebuilt "D" make the Cougs far more of an X-factor than usual, and a menacing September slate could be tricky for a team in adjustment mode. BYU likely goes "bowling" again, but we’re not sure the Cougs notch a fifth straight double-digit win season. POINTSPREAD TRENDS WORTH NOTING: Interestingly, the Cougars have not provided much value lately at home, and enter 2010 having covered just 1 of their last 9 games at Provo, as well as dropping 5 of 7 in somewhat rare underdog roles since ‘07.

4-Air Force... Troy Calhoun’s teams have been more than just the awkward, change-of-pace opponent that Air Force has been since Kenny Hatfield’s days in the ‘80s. The Falcs’ crisp execution and mistake-free ways (they’re +45 in TO margin, as well as 23-13 vs. the line, in three years on Calhoun’s watch) indicate there’s some real coaching going on these days at the Academy. Once again, underestimate the Force at your own risk. POINTSPREAD TRENDS WORTH NOTING: Calhoun’s Falc teams are 11-4 vs. the line at home since 2007. The Force, however, has not covered its last 6 vs. BYU or its last 7 vs. hated Navy, yet it has covered 6 straight vs. New Mexico and 7 if its last 8 vs. Army.

5-San Diego State... Brady Hoke’s track record suggests having some patience (which SDSU fans are used to) after LY’s 4-8 mark, although his desire to mold the Aztecs into a smashmouth offensive force sounds a lot like the failed policies of the Chuck Long regime. A bit better balance is all QB Ryan Lindley and his receivers need, and if Rocky Long’s "D" can force a few more TOs, the Aztecs, with a soft non-conference slate, might have a chance to break their 12-year bowl drought. POINTSPREAD TRENDS WORTH NOTING: SDSU has dropped 16 of its last 24 spread decision as a double-digit dog since 2006, but has covered its last 4 and 7 of its last 8 vs. UNLV.

6-UNLV... Early reports from MWC sources are unfailingly positive on the Bobby "General Stanley McChrystal" Hauck regime, although that optimism has to be tempered, considering a rugged slate featuring nine bowl teams including non-conference dates vs. Wisconsin & West Virginia, not to mention hated Nevada (which has won five straight Fremont Cannon battles). Perhaps Hauck can replicate recent CSU and Wyoming bowl appearances for their first-year coaches if the defense can make some upgrades, and the offense becomes more balanced as it reintroduces a power-running dimension. Although it would also not surprise to see the Rebs, with that tough slate, make progress but fail to exceed the 5 wins they posted a year ago. POINTSPREAD TRENDS WORTH NOTING: The Rebels enter 2010 having dropped 19 of their last 26 spread decisions away from Las Vegas, as well as losing and failing to cover their last five vs. hated Nevada.

7-Wyoming... Neither second-year HC Dave Christensen nor the folks in Laramie want to hear about comparisons to last year’s Colorado State, which, like the Cowboys, emerged as a surprise bowl team under its own first-year HC, Steve Fairchild, in 2008 before collapsing in 2009. But the chips are unlikely to fall the Pokes’ way in every close game as they did in ‘09. Austyn Carta-Samuels should be more comfy running the offense as a soph, but it was hardly an explosive attack LY, and a new-look "D" starts the campaign in adjustment mode. Non-conference dates vs. Texas and Boise State and early matchups vs. the MWC’s upper echelon could have Wyo scrambling just to keep its bowl hopes alive before Halloween. POINTSPREAD TRENDS WORTH NOTING: The Cowboys were an overachieving 9-3 vs. the line a year ago in Christensen’s first season, but remember, their extended spread marks in Laramie (5-11 since ‘07) and as a favorite (2-7 the past three seasons) are still subpar.

8-Colorado State... Getting to a bowl would be no bigger surprise this fall than it was during Steve Fairchild’s debut campaign in 2008, although with revenge-minded Colorado and Nevada waiting out of the chute, a quick start might be difficult, and the current 9-game losing streak could extend. And even with a veteran "D" on hand, forecasting any significant upgrades in Fort Collins will have to assume that one of the frosh QBs delivers and that Fairchild adequately fills the many other offensive gaps. We’re not quite that bold. CSU should improve from the disappointing ‘09 when injuries exposed an alarming lack of depth, but the top layer of MWC contenders is still way over the horizon. POINTSPREAD TRENDS WORTH NOTING: The Rams dropped their last 6 spread decisions in ‘09, and have lost 27 of 41 vs. the number as a true visitor since late in the 2003 season.