WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...WMU is just 3-11 vs. line last 14 since late ‘08, and just 7-15 vs. line away from Kalamazoo since ‘07. But MSU only 4-9 vs. line its last 13 on board, and Dantonio just 3-6 laying DDs at home since arriving in ‘07. Tech edge-slight to MSU, based on team trends.
MIAMI-OHIO at FLORIDA...RedHawks have dropped first spread decision of season in 6 of past 7 years. Miami only 9-18 vs. number its last 27 on board dating to late ‘07. Florida is 12-6 laying DDs past two seasons, and Gators are 10-2 vs. line outside of SEC since ‘07. Tech edge-Florida, based on team trends.
ILLINOIS vs. MISSOURI (at St. Louis)...Mizzou has won and covered last three meetings. Meanwhile, Illinois HC Ron Zook is only 4-11 vs. number last 15 on board since late ‘08. Zook also just 1-8 against points last 9 vs. non-Big Ten foes. Tech edge-Missouri, based on series trends.
COLORADO vs. COLORADO STATE (at Denver)...Only 1 of the last 8 in this series has been decided by more than 7 points. CSU was cold down the stretch last season, losing its last 9 SU and last 6 vs. number. Rams, however, are 4-1 vs. line last 5 as non-MWC dog. Tech edge-slight to CSU, based on competitive series trends.
NORTHWESTERN at VANDERBILT...Robbie Caldwell debut as Vandy HC. But Dores no covers last 8 as host or last 5 as Vandy Stadium dog. Meanwhile, NU has covered 8 of last 9 away from home, although Cats no covers last 5 as chalk. Fitzgerald 3-12 last 15 as chalk. Tech edge-slight to NU, based on team trends.
MEMPHIS at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Larry Porter debut at Memphis. Tigers are a wretched 2-10 their last 12 on board since late ‘08 and just 1-6 against line last 7 away from Liberty Bowl. Memphis also 1-5 last 6 as DD dog and 1-9 last 10 vs. line outside of CUSA. Tech edge-MSU, based on Memphis negatives.
TEXAS at RICE (at Reliant Stadium)...Teams didn’t meet LY, but Horns had won and covered previous four seasons, scoring 51 or more each time, winning each by 41 or more! Tech edge-Texas, based on series trends.
PURDUE at NOTRE DAME...Brian Kelly ND debut. This series has been well-matched in recent years, with teams splitting the last 6 spread decisions. Purdue was 2-0 as DD dog for Danny ope LY and is 4-0 in role since ‘07. Note that Kelly was only 6-8 his last 14 on board at Cincy, and only 2-6 last 8 as DD chalk with Bearcats. Irish were only 5-15 their last 20 as home chalk for Charlie Weis. Tech edge-Purdue, based on team trends.
UCONN at MICHIGAN...Rich Rodriguez is just 7-17 vs. number since arriving at Ann Arbor in ‘08, and closed ‘09 losing and failing to cover his last five games. Wolverines did cover all 3 on board vs. non-Big Ten LY, but Rodriguez just 4-8 as chalk since ‘08. Meanwhile, UConn HC Randy Edsall now 12-2 vs. line last 14 on board since late ‘08, and covered all 7 away from home LY, as well as all 7 as dog. Huskies have also covered their last 6 vs. non-Big East foes. Tech edge-UConn, based on team trends.
KENTUCKY at LOUISVILLE...Joker Phillips and Charlie Strong debuts. Cats have won last 3 in hateful series after dropping previous 4. UK covered all 5 of its reg.-season games on road LY and is 12-4 vs. number last 16 on reg.-season road. Cats have also covered last 3 as road chalk since ‘07 and have covered first game on board in 4 of last 5 seasons. Cards only 3-9 last 12 as dog in the now-aborted Kragthorpe regime in which they also dropped 12 of their last 16 vs. number. Tech edge-UK, based on team trends.
NEW MEXICO at OREGON... Lobos actually 3-1 vs. line getting 20 more LY for Mike Locksley, and 2-0 getting more than 30. In prior years, UNM usually offered decent value for Rocky Long in road dog role. Ducks not a bad big favorite lately, however, covering both laying 21 or more LY, and 4 of 5 since ‘08. They’re also 10-1 their last 11 laying 16 or more, dating back to Bellotti days in ‘04. Tech edge-slight to Oregon, based on team trends.
UCLA at KANSAS STATE...UCLA HC Rick Neuheisel just 3-8 his last 11 as dog, although he has covered 5 straight vs. non-Pac 10 foes. Bill Snyder 3-1 vs. line at home LY, and KSU now 11-4 vs. line as home chalk since ‘05. Cats 6-1 laying 10 or fewer at home that span. Tech edge-slight to K-State, based on team trends.
SYRACUSE at AKRON...Rob Ianello debut for Zips. Rare road chalk role for Cuse, which has dropped last 3 in role, all of the way back to Paul Pasqualoni’s last season in ‘04Y. Tech edge-slight to Akron, based on team trends.
WASHINGTON at BYU...Believe it or not, BYU just 1-8 vs. number its last 9 in Provo, and 1-7 last 8 as home chalk. Tech edge-UW, based on recent BYU spread woes in Provo.
WASHINGTON STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE...Cougs dropped last 4 vs. line LY and are now 9-15 vs. spread under Paul Wulff since ‘08. Wazzu only 8-15 as DD dog since ‘07. OSU’s Mike Gundy was 0-3 as DD chalk LY but his extended numbers in role are pretty good (11-5 since ‘05, 8-4 at Stillwater that span). Gundy also 10-4 last 14 as home chalk dating to late ‘06. Tech edge-OSU, based on team trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at ALABAMA...Mike MacIntyre debut at San Jose. Nick Saban only 2-2 laying 28 or more the past two seasons, but he’s 19-9 overall last 28 on board. San Jose covered just once LY for Dick Tomey and is just 1-14 its last 15 on board. Spartans 0-7-1 vs. line last 8 on road, and 1-10 as DD road dog since ‘07. Tech edge-Bama, based on team trends.
UTAH STATE at OKLAHOMA...Utags have been a pointspread force lately, now 20-9 last 29 spread decisions. USU covered all 4 as DD road dog LY and is 5-0-1 last 6 in role and 12-5-1 against number last 18 on road. Stoops was only 4-7 as chalk LY with injury-depleted team, including 0-3 laying 20 or more. Tech edge-USU, based on team trends.
ARMY at EASTERN MICHIGAN...EMU was winless SU for Ron English LY and only 4-8 vs. line, and 1-4 vs. spread at raucous Ypsilanti. Eagles just 2-9 at wild Rynearson Stadium since ‘07 and 2-7 as home dog that span. Army has won and covered the last two years vs. EMU, but note that West Zpoint’s only cover as chalk away from Michie in the past decade came vs. Navy at Philly in 2001. Tech edge-Army, based on EMU negatives.
OREGON STATE at TCU (at Jerry Jones Cowboys Stadium, Arlington)...Frogs have won last 7 openers and covered their last 5 lid-lifters. TCU 12-4 as home chalk (in Fort Worth) since ‘07 and 14-5 laying DDs that span. Meanwhile, OSU only one cover in last five openers, but Riley’s Beavers were 4-0 as road dog LY and are 9-3 in role since ‘07. Yet they are just 6-19 vs. spread in September since Riley returned to OSU in 2003. Tech edge-slight to OSU, based on team trends.
NORTH CAROLINA vs. LSU (at Georgia Dome, Atlanta)...Les Miles has had declining spread fortunes lately, just 10-23 vs. number his last 33 on board since early ‘07. Tech edge-slight to UNC, based on recent LSU spread woes.
CINCINNATI at FRESNO STATE...Butch Jones Cincy debut, he inherits a Bearcat team on an 18-game reg.-season win streak! Cincy was 8-2 as dog over the past three seasons. Butch was 9-3 vs. line at CMU LY and 22-13 vs. spread with Chips from ‘07-09. Pat Hill only 2-11 vs. line at home since ‘07 and just 3-18 vs. spread last 21 at Dog House since mid ‘05. Tech edge-Cincy, based on team trends.
WISCONSIN at UNLV...Bobby "General Stanley McChrystal" Hauck debut for UNLV. Under Mike Sanford, Rebs were only 3-8 vs. line LY, although over the past five years they have generally been tough as a home dog (12-7). Badgers only 6-12 vs. line away from home since ‘07 and 1-3 laying DD away over that span. Tech edge-UNLV, based on team trends.
UL-LAFAYETTE at GEORGIA...Mark Richt has underachieved vs. number lately between the hedges, only 9-18 vs. line at home since ‘05 (9-17 as home chalk). Richt 5-13 laying DDs since ‘05 and 4-10 as DD home chalk that span. Tech edge-slight to ULL, based on Georgia negatives.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at NEBRASKA...Willie Taggart WKU debut. Tops actually covered last 4 on board in ‘09 despite winless SU campaign, and have covered 5 of last 6 getting 20 or more! Bo Pelini 12-6 last 18 vs. number, and note how Huskers have brutalized Sun Belt foes lately, walloping Ark State and ULL LY, and last three vs. Sun Belt, Huskers have outscored foes 160-3, covering all 3 easily. Pelini has covered last 3 chances laying 24 or more. Tech edge-Nebraska, based on team trends.
NORTH TEXAS at CLEMSON...Todd Dodge 13-22 vs. line with UNT since arriving in ‘07. Going back further, Mean Green 3-19 vs. line last 22 vs. non-Belt foes away from Denton. Dabo on 11-6 spread run last 17 on board, although Clemson has failed to cover its last 4 laying 20 or more, dating to the Tommy Bowden days. Tech edge-Clemson, based on extended UNT spread woes.
BOWLING GREEN at TROY...Revenge for Troy after 31-14 opening loss LY. Falcs 16-6 vs. line away from Doyt Perry since ‘07 and 5-1 as DD road dog that span. BGSU 8-2 vs. line visiting non-MAC teams since ‘06. Troy also 5-0 vs. line at home LY and 11-2 as host since ‘07. Trojans 10-2 as home chalk since ‘07 and 6-1 last 7 as DD chalk. Troy also 4-1 vs. line last 5 hosting non-Belt. Tech edge-slight to Troy, based on team trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at AUBURN...ASU collapsed LY, no covers last 6 and only 2-9 vs. line. Red Wolves now 3-16 last 19 games on board. ASU also just 10-24 vs. line since ‘07 and 5-15 vs. line on road that span. Also 1-4 last 5 as DD dog, although UNT has covered its last two tries getting 30 or more (vs. Texas in ‘07 and Auburn, of all teams, in ‘06). Gene Chizik 5-3 vs. line at Jordan-Hare LY, but dropped 6 of last 8 overall vs. line in ‘09. Tech edge-slight to Auburn, based on recent ASU negatives.
TULSA at EAST CAROLINA (Sunday, September 5)...Ruffin McNeill debut at ECU! Pirates won as a dog at Tulsa the past two seasons, winning CUSA title in ‘08. Skip Holtz was 23-9 as dog at ECU from ’05-09. Tulsa dropped 7 of last 9 vs. line LY, and Todd Graham now 3-9 his last 12 as chalk since late ‘08. Tech edge-ECU, based on team trends.
SMU at TEXAS TECH (Sunday, September 5)...Tommy Tuberville debut at Texas Tech! Tech routed SMU in three straight years from ‘06-08, but Red Raiders were only 3-6 as DD Lubbock chalk for Mike Leach the past three years. June Jones 7-1 as dog LY. Tech edge-slight to SMU, based on team trends.
MARYLAND vs. NAVY (Monday, September 6 at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore)...Ralph Friedgen only 6-11 vs. line his last 17 on board and has incredibly lost first spread decision of campaign the past eight seasons! Ralph 3-9 last 12 as a 7-point or fewer dog away from home. Navy, however, was only 2-6 as chalk LY, and 6-12 as chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Navy, based on team trends.
BOISE STATE vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Monday, September 6 at FedEx Field, Landover, MD)... Boise 17-6-1 last 24 on board. Broncos 7-2 vs. line last 9 vs. non-WAC foes, and 11-3 vs. line last 14 away. Frank Beamer, however, 26-11 vs. line away from home since ‘04, and 11-4 as dog since ‘04. Tech edge-slight to Boise, based on team trends.
