We’ve all heard the old saying "Snooze, or you lose" ever since our school days. But handicapping the college football card is no different. Especially since the season has kicked off; it’s time to start quick analysis of the proceedings. Within two weeks, most of the teams in the country will have already played one-quarter of their schedule. Yet we know of far too many handicappers who want to "wait and see" what develops in the campaign before formulating any solid opinions on the teams involved.
Wagering opportunities, however, are limited in college football. Once we get to October (which will come sooner than you think), most teams will have as many games remaining as baseball teams play in one week. In other words, don’t wait for the season to pass you by. The key as always will be knowing when to react and shade past developments, and when to anticipate any upcoming changes in form.
With that in mind, we believe we found out a few things after the first week of college action. Following are some of our observations, including some "winners" and "losers" from opening week action.
1) Big East, or Big Least? It’s not too soon to say that the Big East should probably not be getting any automatic BCS qualification this season. Not after three of the preseason favorites in the conference were defeated on the road in opening-week assignments. Of the losses suffered by Pitt, UConn, and Cincinnati, there might not have been a more difficult one for Big East partisans to swallow than the Bearcats’ meltdown at Fresno State. Up 14-0 and seemingly well in control in the second quarter, Cincy quickly lost its grip on the game, mostly because its offensive line could not protect QB Zach Collaros, whose decision making in the face of an unexpected siege from the Bulldog defensive line also left something to be desired. Cincy was physically beaten up by a defense that ranked 98th overall and 111th vs. the rush a year ago when allowing 6.2 ypc. Even conceding some upgrades to Pat Hill’s defense, it was a hugely disappointing night for Cincy and new HC Butch Jones, who will immediately be reminded by the folks at the local Gold Star Chili restaurant that he’s not Brian Kelly.
2) The SEC is not the NFL. We have long been on the SEC bandwagon, and have believed it has played the best brand of football in the nation for many years. But the differences aren’t as pronounced as some SEC loyalists would have you believe. Whatever the qualities of FCS Jacksonville State, Ole Miss had no business losing to the Gamecocks, especially after holding a 31-10 halftime lead. LSU can hardly feel good about itself after nearly allowing a suspension-depleted North Carolina squad pull off a startling comeback at the Georgia Dome last Saturday night. And even mighty Florida found itself in a scrap with a Miami-Ohio team that was one of the worst in the nation a year ago when recording a 1-11 mark. On the other hand, South Carolina, Georgia, and Mississippi State fired some loud warning shots to the rest of the SEC with lopsided wins in their opening games. The league is still a beast, but non-conference foes need not believe they are facing the New Orleans Saints or Baltimore Ravens Colts when lining up vs. an SEC team.
Meanwhile, is it time to "short" any teams across the country? Here are a handful of teams that generated plenty of red flags last week, and some we might be looking to go against in the coming weeks.
Toledo...HC Tim Beckman warned that his Rockets were very young and in rebuild mode. But how far Toledo is from respectability was underlined in that 41-2 blow it absorbed from Arizona on Friday night. With the Rockets’ two-deep littered with underclassmen, Toledo was exposed both offensively and defensively, albeit against a legit Pac-10 contender. The stop unit, ranked 116th a year ago, still looks woefully undermanned. The Rockets haven’t recorded a winning spread mark since way back in 2004 during Tom Amstutz’ days, and we’re not sure that is going to change this season.
Memphis...The jury is always out on new head coaches, especially those who have never held a top job before. So even though new Tigers HC and alum Larry Porter appeared to be a pretty good fit when named to replace Tommy West last December, evidence was sketchy. And perhaps it still is after Memphis was humiliated by what looks to be a better-than-advertised Mississippi State team in the opener, 49-7. But Porter has yet to decide upon a QB, his offense appears in search of an identity, and there were enough sideline mix-ups in Starkville to suggest that this could be one very long season at the Liberty Bowl.
New Mexico...We know the Lobos were outgunned at Oregon, but there is never any excuse to lose a game 72-0, especially one in which the score could have been a lot worse if the Ducks didn’t call off the dogs after racing to a 59-0 halftime lead. There’s no question the Ducks could have broken the 100-point barrier if they so chose in Eugene; it’s a good think for New Mexico that Duck HC Chip Kelly apparently has some compassion. After all, this was an Oregon team breaking in a new QB (Darron Thomas) and without its top rusher from a year ago, the suspended LaMichael James. And it’s the latest black eye for 2nd-year HC Mike Locksley and his New Mexico regime that looks mor and more as if it were a huge mistake by the Lobo administration, which frankly deserves what it is getting after some shabby treatment of former HC Rocky Long, who made a habit of at least getting UNM to minor bowls before being unceremoniously shoved aside. Locksley has been a complete disaster in Albuquerque, and this era of Lobo football is due to be humanely terminated at some point in the near future.
Kansas...New HC Turner Gill knows all about inheriting tough situations; they don’t get much harder than Buffalo, which Gill remarkably turned into a representative MAC program in recent years. Now Gill might have to do the same thing at Kansas, where the Jayhawks apparently miss graduated, do-everything QB Todd Reesing a lot more than most ever imagined. Reesing’s successors Kale Pick and Jordan Webb failed to ignite the KU offense, which was blanked after a first-quarter FG by Jacob Branstetter in an eventual and unsightly 6-3 loss to visiting North Dakota State in last Saturday’s opener in Lawrence. Reversing the downturn that began in the latter stage of the Mark Mangino regime will not be easy, as KU had entered this season having dropped 8 of its last 9 spread decisions. And he Bison of NDSU are not be confused with this week’s foe Georgia Tech.
Washington State...We have always sympathized with Cougar HC Paul Wulff, who inherited almost a completely bare cupboard from predecessor Bill Doba. But the Cougars continue to plumb new depths of ineptitude, as last week’s 65-17 blowout administered by Oklahoma State would attest. The Cowboys took it easy after rolling to a 51-10 lead early in the third quarter, but still couldn’t help tacking on two almost inadvertent TDs in the 4th quarter after a Wazzu fumble and a blocked punt. Although soph QB Jeff Tuel continues to flash some upside, the Cougar "D" remains unspeakably bad, and a continuation of non-competitive efforts does not bode well for Wulff’s coaching future at his alma mater, especially with a new AD, Bill Moos (a former Oregon AD and also a Wazzu alum), now on the job in Pullman.
LSU...We know the Tigers survived that 30-24 scare from North Carolina, but we also can’t recall a win that feels more like a loss, which has further tightened the noose around the neck of HC Les Miles, already the target of abuse from Tiger Nation. Expectations have been driven ridiculously high in Baton Rouge after two BCS title in past seven years anyway, but Miles’ Tigers are not inspiring much confidence after continuing their mistakes and blown-assignments theme from the past couple of seasons against the Tar Heels, not to mention appearing to lack much direction from the sidelines when the going gets tough. Miles could return to Baton Rouge 2-0 after this week’s game at Vanderbilt, but Tiger fans might treat it as another loss if the team doesn’t perforam a lot better.
Meanwhile, a handful of teams flashed early "buy" signals with warning shots last week. We’d watch some of these entries very closely...
South Carolina...Steve Spurrier might finally have a juggernaut in Columbia, with the addition of all-everything frosh RB Marcus Lattimore apparently providing the sort of dimension that all of the Ball Coach’s previous teams lacked. With QB Stephen Garcia apparently maturing into a competent leader, perhaps because he’s being pushed by another wondrous SC frosh, QB Connor Shaw. Meanwhile, the "D" is plenty big, plenty fast, and plenty nasty. Watch these guys.
Notre Dame...The excitement was more palpable than usual for the opener in South Bend vs. Purdue, with early evidence of an upgrade from Charlie Weis to new HC Brian Kelly evident in the performance of the ND defense, which schemed effectively and made life miserable for Purdue QB Robert Marve. Informed Domers noted in the offseason that one of Kelly’s key components was the ability to lure respected d.c. Bob Diaco with him from Cincinnati, and Diaco’s defense was the real eye-opener in that 23-12 win over the Boilermakers. That is, the defense and QB Dayne Crist, who looked pretty comfortable running the QB-friendly Kelly offense against Purdue.
Michigan...It took a couple of years, but Wolverines fans finally got a look in the opener vs. UConn at the sort of team they expected when hiring Rich Rodriguez from West Virginia in December of 2007. That is, an offense similar to the Rodriguez Mountaineer spread options that ran wild with QB Pat White at the controls. New Wolverine QB Denard Robinson looked electric vs. the Huskies and the perfect fit for the Rodriguez offense, whose 2010 version appears to have a lot more speed and striking power than the past two editions in Ann Arbor. The only drawback to Robinson’s debut is that holdover QB Tate Forcier now seems to be surplus in Ann Arbor; don’t be surprised if he transfers. Meanwhile, Greg Robinson’s Michigan’s defense bent plenty against UConn but held up better than it has the past two seasons when mostly playing roadkill. All of a sudden, this week’s game vs. Notre Dame looks a lot more interesting than it did before last Saturday.
Oklahoma State...Beating up Washington State doesn’t mean much. But Big XII observers are keeping an eye on an Oklahoma State team that might have benefited from receiving less hype than last year’s mildly disappointing version. Getting RB Kendall Hunter healthy again is a big plus after last year’s foot injury; Hunter might have had a shot at breaking LaDainian Tomlinson’s single-game NCAA record of 406 YR had he not been pulled in the third quarter vs. the Cougs after gaining 227 YR. Moreover, new QB Brandon Weeden, a 26-year-old ex minor-league pitcher, can make all of the throws in new o.c. Dana Holgorsen’s uptempo attack that flummoxed Houston’s foes the past few years. In particular, Weeden’s ability to get off plays in rapid-fire succession (OSU rarely takes more than 15 seconds between snaps) will cause plenty of headaches for OSU foes this season.
