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BCS Busters
September 8, 2010
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
L et the debate begin!
For many fans across the country, especially those attached to teams and conferences other than the WAC, Monday night’s Boise State win over Virginia Tech went over about as well as Whoopi Goldberg taking the podium at a Glenn Beck rally. The old "Cinderella" label that used to be attached to the Broncos has long since dissipated. They are no longer the darling of the national media, the uninvited guests who became an interesting curiosity while managing to crash a few big-time college football parties. No, Boise has become more like the mother-in-law who moves in permanently. The Broncos aren’t going anywhere, and the college football powers-that-be have about had enough of it all.
Such protectionism is expected from certain college football outposts, where perceptions are always clouded by regional biases. But when the national media gets in on the Bronco-busting act, something is amiss. Such as a piece by Yahoo Sports’ Les Carpenter, who apparently was none too impressed by Boise’s stirring 33-30 win over the Hokies at FedEx Field, which could have been mistaken for a bigger version of VPI’s Lane Stadium on Monday night. The site was about as neutral for the Broncos as the Fox News studios would be for Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi. Monday’s battle was a home game in everything but name for Frank Beamer’s crew.
Yet, here came Carpenter, reminding readers that it was a game that Boise easily could have lost, that all it took was one more completion by Hokie QB Tyrod Taylor with just over 2:00 left in the game to bury the Broncos for good. A close victory, according to Carpenter, proved little about Boise’s worthiness to be involved in the national title discussion. This was apparently a game Boise not only had to win, but win decisively, to merit inclusion in the BCS title discussion. For goodness sakes, the Broncos have the college football establishment so riled, that a campaign to discredit their national title credentials has already begun...on September 6. Serious college football followers, however, should find something a lot more disturbing than any double-standards that are placed upon the Broncos by media sorts such as Carpenter, who should be reminded that winning close games at hostile venues is hardly the sort of thing that should could against any team. By Carpenter’s logic, we suppose Alabama should have been knocked down a few rungs in the rankings last season when lucky to survive an upset bid by modest Tennessee, which was a last-second FG away from knocking off the Crimson Tide. Not to mention Bama getting plenty of help from the SEC officials in a controversial win over LSU shortly thereafter.
No, Les, college football history, and all of sports history, is replete with teams whose greatness was forged in the most competitive of circumstances. The ability to find a way to win a tightly-contested battle should be applauded as one of the truest measures of a team’s quality, not a sign of weakness. Not many teams simply walked through their schedule like the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Had Boise been taken to the wire on Monday night by San Jose State, Carpenter might have a point. But if anything, Monday’s win over a very formidable VPI bunch should have the Broncos right in the middle of the BCS discussion, not teetering on the periphery of it. Besides, anyone watching Chris Petersen’s team who doesn’t think it has at least a puncher’s chance vs. Alabama, Ohio State, Florida, Texas, or any other BCS "power" must be influenced by some of those regional biases that refuse to accept the Broncs as a serious force, despite their many recent success and BCS triumphs (including Fiesta Bowl wins over Oklahoma and TCU).
Instead, we think the college football season became a lot more interesting with Boise's win over Virginia Tech. Bronco/ BCS title talk will remain an evergreen subject throughout the fall, at least as long as Boise keeps winning. Which the Broncos should. Although it is wise to remember that there is still a lot of football to be played between now and early December, when we'll find out who the BCS title game participants will be. Stay tuned.
Still, Boise’s eventual chances at getting to the title game have several more hurdles to overcome. Assuming the Broncos stay unbeaten (which appears likely, though not assured, especially with a very representative Oregon State team paying a visit to the blue carpet in a few weeks), they’ll still need no more than one team from all of the major BCS conferences to finish unbeaten. The BCS system, as it is designed, is not going to reward the Broncos with a title game berth if more than one undefeated team emerges from the SEC, Big XII, Big Ten, Pac-10, or even the ACC or Big East. A year ago, unbeaten Boise and TCU teams would have still been behind Cincinnati, which also finished the regular season unscathed, had Texas lost the Big XII title game to Nebraska, which would have sent the Bearcats (without HC Brian Kelly) to Pasadena for the title game vs. Alabama. The difference for Boise this season, as opposed to recent years, is that the Broncos might have enough cachet with poll voters, who make up a significant percentage of the eventual BCS formula, to keep ahead of any one-loss teams in the BCS title game queue. Although even that is just conjecture at this stage; should a title game slot come down to a decision between an unbeaten Boise and a one-loss team from the SEC, the resultant controversy about which team doesn’t get the coveted invitation will shake the foundation of the sport.
Which, in the larger scheme of things, is probably a good idea. What continues to amaze us is that any media members would be wasting time decrying Boise’s BCS credentials when instead they could be devoting valuable column space to what a wholly unsatisfying mess the BCS has become. At least some journalists are nervy enough to take on the BCS monster and expose it for the fraud it and the bowl charade really are; Dan Wetzel, a more enlightened Yahoo columnist that Carpenter, has penned a book that will expose the BCS and current bowl system as crass power grabs by a group of elitists who wish to keep the college football power structure and bowl perks as their own fiefdoms. Wetzel’s book, reportedly due out before Christmas (and just in time for the upcoming bowl season), will expose the current postseason circus as the work of a select ruling class of elitists with little concern for anything else other than padding their own wallets and feeding their own massive egos by using whatever strong-arm tactics they must to keep themselves, and not the dreaded NCAA, in control of the bowl exercise. The single-minded Big Ten and its commissioner Jim Delany (both targets of our columns in the past) will apparently be singled out for extra scrutiny. Wetzel will reportedly outline how a true playoff could be conducted (stories of the sort we have been running for the past generation) within the current bowl format and end up generating 3 to 4 times the revenue that the current, unsatisfactory model produces.
Meanwhile, Boise critics also missed another interesting development on Monday night, that being a mostly-heroic display by Virginia Tech, which clawed its way back from an early 17-0 deficit and was on the verge of a famous win that would have likely propelled the Hokies into the middle of the national title discussion, too. The performance of Hokie sr. QB Tyrod Taylor, who has finally emerged as a playmaker deluxe for Beamer, was a development that was overlooked by some media sources who were more concerned with the Boise angle of the story. Thus, after the first weekend of the season, the Hokies’ chances of getting involved in the national title picture are now between slim and none, although VPI could certainly find itself back in the BCS mix if it can win the ACC. Were a true playoff to be held, the Hokies would still be in with a shout at a national title run, something Beamer’s team might be capable of handling later in the season. As it is now, however, the Hokies are going to be a national title afterthought unless multiple upsets start whittling down the expected contenders.
Meanwhile, Boise will likely be looking to score style points this season to keep the pollsters (who have them ranked third after the thriller vs. the Hokies) interested. But that’s nothing new for the Broncos, who have been through that drill before. Although Boise will likely be forced to lay a lot of lumber in 2010, history tells us that the Broncos are capable of handling those expected big imposts. Boise is 64-37 vs. the number over the past decade as a favorite, and an even better 37-16 as chalk on its home blue carpet at Bronco Stadium. Boise also stands 22-9-1 vs. the number its last 32 games on the board, though, as is often the case, the betting public might force the lines to over-adjust. As good as the Broncos are with their 20 returning starters and QB Kellen Moore likely to be involved somewhere in the Heisman Trophy discussion, proceed with caution if inclined to back Boise, and be sensitive to the fact that even the Broncos could get overpriced.
Anchors...Aweigh? So much for Navy’s hopes of becoming a surprise BCS Buster, as the Mids were dealt a crushing blow in the "Crab Bowl" at Baltimore against neighboring Maryland, bowing in a cruel 17-14 decision. The final ignominy for Navy was QB Ricky Dobbs, who likes to call his own number (is it any mystery why he scored 27 TDs last season?), being stopped inches shy of a potential winning TD in the final 30 seconds. The Mids had botched four other legitimate scoring drives deep in Terp territory in an uncommonly sloppy performance that Navy had otherwise dominated after falling behind early 14-0. The win was quite a boost, however, for Maryland HC Ralph Friedgen, who had been feeling some real heat after last year’s disappointing 2-10 mark.
Following are our latest "BCS Buster" rankings, through the first full weekend of regular-season play. Straight-up and pointspread records are included.
1-BOISE STATE (Straight-up record 1-0, Pointspread record 1-0)...As mentioned above, the Broncos have already cleared what looked to be their most significant hurdle on the way to another possible undefeated regular season, which would be their third in a row. NEXT GAME: September 18, at Wyoming.
2-TCU (1-0, 0-1)... Who says results from previous seasons don’t mean anything in the rankings? Boise’s 17-10 win over the Horned Frogs in last January’s Fiesta Bowl is what has allowed the Broncos to assume the poll position over TCU in the BCS Buster queue, and will likely keep them there as long as they keep winning. The Frogs, however, have a few more higher-profile games remaining that Boise, and will likely be rewarded more for any successes conference (Mountain West) than Boise will be in the WAC. TCU had a few hiccups in its opener vs. Oregon State, but the Frogs did not hurt themselves any in that 30-21 win at Jerry World. NEXT GAME: September 11, vs. Tennessee Tech at Fort Worth.
3-UTAH (1-0, 0-0-1)... The Utes also cut it pretty close last week before finally subduing Big East contender Pitt, 27-24, in overtime of the opener at Salt Lake City. Soph QB Jordan Wynn continues to perform with maturity beyond his years, and with bullish RB Matt Asiata healthy once again, the Utes have the physical infantry dimension they lacked for much of last season. A quick look at the schedule, however, uncovers several potential slipping points, as the October 8 road trip to Iowa State will be no picnic, and the visit to Notre Dame on November 13 appears as if it will be a lot tougher than it would have been a year ago when Charlie Weis was still in charge of the Irish. Mountain West top contenders TCU and Utah, however, both travel to Salt Lake City, where the Utes won their 18th consecutive games last Thursday vs. Dave Wannstedt’s crew. Remember, at this time a year ago, the Utes were still the BCS Buster darlings. NEXT GAME: September 11. vs. UNLV at Salt Lake City.
4-BYU (1-0, 1-0)... The Cougars sent notice that they might still get involved in the BCS Buster equation themselves by coming from behind for a 23-17 win over Jake Locker and Washington last Saturday in Provo. HC Bronco Mendenhall’s platoon system at QB worked just fine, with mobile jr. Riley Nelson (a former Utah State transfer starting his first game since 2006 with the Aggies) and true frosh Jake Heaps each passing for 131 yards in the win. Mendenhall’s defense also shut out Locker and the Huskies in the second half, serving notice to the rest of the MWC that the Cougs mean business in their last trip around the conference oval before going the independent route next season. NEXT GAME: September 11, at Air Force.
5-HOUSTON (1-0, 0-1)... Houston was in scrimmage mode most of the night last Saturday vs. Texas State in an eventual 68-28 blowout win, although the Cougs couldn’t quite cover the 43 ½-point number posted at a handful of sports books (painful for any UH backers who might have been tempted to cash their tickets when ahead 68-7 in the 2nd half). QB Case Keenum’s Heisman campaign began with 5 TDP, but were still waiting to see a bit more evidence of an upgraded Houston defense that will be facing a couple of interesting tests in the next month vs. UCLA and Mississippi State. NEXT GAME: September 10, vs. UTEP at Houston.
6-AIR FORCE (1-0, 0-1); 7-NAVY (0-1, 0-1); 8-NEVADA (1-0, 0-1); 9-FRESNO STATE (1-0, 1-0); 10-UCF (1-0, 1-0).
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