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Tech Trends - Week 14

Thursday, Dec. 1
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at WEST VIRGINIA at SOUTH FLORIDA...Skip has faded badly this season, just 1-7 vs. line last 8 after covering first three and now in danger of missing bowl eligibility. Those failures all as chalk or pick, however; as dog he's 1-0 TY and 5-3 at USF, 28-12 since '05 including days at ECU. WVU has lost and failed to cover last two trips to Tampa and is 1-4 vs. line last 5 meetings. Mounties are 3-1 vs. points away in 2011, however. Slight to WVU, based on recent USF woes.

Friday, Dec. 2
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at OHIO vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (MAC title game at Detroit, Friday, December 2)...Return match for NIU in MAC title game, which Huskies lost LY. These two haven't faced since 2009 when Solich won, 38-31 at DeKalb. Both are 0-2 in MAC title games. Solich 8-3 as dog since 2009, 16-8 since 2007. Huskies only 2-4 vs. line away from home TY. Ohio, based on Solich dog marks.
at UCLA at OREGON (Pac-12 title game, Friday, December 2)...UCLA has lost and failed to cover last two vs. Oregon. Ducks only 2-4 vs. line in Eugene this season. Rick Neuheisel only 4-11 vs. spread last 15 on board and is a mere 1-5 vs. line on the road this year, as well as 1-9 vs. spread last 10 as a visitor. Oregon, based on UCLA poor road marks and Neuheisel subpar spread performance.

Saturday, Dec. 3
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at UCONN at CINCINNATI...Cincy still in with a shout for BCS berth, but has been outplayed continually by UConn lately. Huskies have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 meetings. Pasqualoni only 1-3 vs. line away and as dog TY, however. Cincy 1-3 vs. spread last four TY roughly coinciding with Collaros injury. UConn, based on series trends.
at SYRACUSE at PITTSBURGH...Panthers have won and covered big the last two years by a combined 82-24 score. Marrone no covers last four in 2011 and Orange just 1-5 as dog this season. Syracuse also 0-4 vs. spread on road in 2011. Pitt on 4-game cover streak this season and has covered 4 of last 5 at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh, based on recent series and team trends.
at IOWA STATE at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder has won and covered both vs. ISU since returning to K-State sidelines in 2009. Bill Snyder also 9-1 vs. line last 10 this season. K-State, based on Bill Snyder marks.
at WYOMING at COLORADO STATE...Border War and Bronze Boot! Big revenge for CSU after 44-0 loss LY and defeats last two Border Wars for the Bronze Boot. Favored side however is 6-1 vs. line last seven meetings. Wyoming 12-4 as road dog for Dave Christensen since 2009 but 0-2 as road chalk that span. Cowboys 4-1 vs. line last five TY. CSU 2-1 vs. line last three TY after dropping 7 of first 8 vs. number. Slight to Wyo, based on series chalk trends.
at UNLV at TCU...Rebels have now lost 15 in a row SU on road and are 1-14 vs. points in those games (only cover at Wisconsin this year). Home team is 20-3 against spread in UNLV games vs. FBS opposition since Bobby Hauck arrived in 2010. Rebs 2-17 against number last 19 as visitor. Frogs have covered last four meetings, winning last three by 134-20 combined score, but TCU 1-5 vs. line as DD home chalk TY (counting game at Jerry Jones Stadium in Arlington vs. BYU). TCU, based on series trends and UNLV road woes.
at OKLAHOMA at OKLAHOMA STATE...Bedlam! All Sooners lately, with wins last 8 meetings and covers in last six (7-1 vs. spread last eight). OSU 1-2 vs. line last three in 2011 after Mike Gundy had pushed spread mark to 17-4 in previous 21 on board. Cowboys only 6-5 last 11 vs. spread at Stillwater. If OU getting points, note Bob Stoops 12-6 as underdog since 2000. Oklahoma, based on series trends.
at TEXAS at BAYLOR...Mack has failed to cover three of last four in series and was beaten 30-20 at Austin last year by Bears. Baylor 5-0 vs. spread at Waco this season. Baylor, based on team and recent series spread trends.
at IDAHO at NEVADA...Wolf Pack has crucified Idaho lately, winning and covering huge the last three years by 182-76 combined score. Nevada 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs. line against Vandals since 2005, win margin a whopping 36.3 ppg. Nevada has dropped last five vs. line this season but Pack still 23-10 as Reno chalk since Chris Ault returned to sidelines in 2004. Nevada, based on series trends.
at NEW MEXICO at BOISE STATE...Lobos doing what they have done the past few years, covering games late in the season when spreads get out of hand. UNM has covered its last three in 2011 and is 8-3 vs. number last four games of season since 2009. Boise, meanwhile, no covers last five this season and surprising 0-5 against spread on blue carpet in 2011. Slight to New Mexico, based on recent team trends.
at BYU at HAWAII...Cougars on 5-game cover streak, mirroring their charge down the stretch last season when covering 7 of their last 8 games on board. Meanwhile, Hawaii no covers last four in Honolulu in 2011 and 1-6 vs. number last seven on board. These two old foes surprisingly have not played since 2002! BYU, based on recent trends.
at UTAH STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE...Utags now bowl eligible after Nevada win. USU no covers four of last six TY but still 20-10 against number on road since 2007. NMSU has covered the last two in series and has covered three straight at home this season but DeWayne Walker still just 5-12 against spread at Las Cruces since taking over Aggies in 2009. Utah State, based on extended team trends.
at FRESNO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...This becomes a conference game next season for the first time since 1998. Rocky Long just 2-4 last six as chalk this season and Aztecs have dropped three of last four spread decisions at home. Pat Hill has maintained good road dog form despite other travails lately, Bulldogs have covered last three getting points away, 12-6 in road dog role since 2007. Fresno State, based on team trends.

Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at TROY at ARKANSAS STATE...Troy only 3-8 vs. line in 2011 and just 8-16 on board since commencement of 2010 campaign. Troy has won last four SU in series and covered the first three of those before non-cover in 2010. Arkansas State is 9-2 against spread this season and 16-7 vs. line since a year ago. Red Wolves 5-0 vs. points at Jonesboro in 2011. Arkansas State, based on recent team trends.
at MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at NORTH TEXAS...MTSU had won and covered four straight in series prior to last season's 23-17 loss. Blue Raiders no covers last five or seven of last eight this season, and just 7-17 against number since beginning of 2010 campaign. Dan McCarney has covered six of last nine this season for the Mean Green. North Texas, based on recent MTSU negatives.
at UL-MONROE at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Schnellenberger swan song. Tough farewell tour for Howard, 1-10 MSU and 3-8 vs. line, but did get the first win of year last week vs. UAB. Howard 3-13 last 16 on board and43-17 last 20 against spread. Warhawks have covered last four in series as well. ULM, based on series trends and FAU negatives.

Championship Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at SOUTHERN MISS at HOUSTON (CUSA Championship)...Assuming it will be USM in the title game vs. Houston. Cougars on a tremendous roll with seven straight wins and covers this season. Last two meetings vs. USM in 2009 and 2010 way "over" (and how, 93 and 100 points, respectively, scored in the two games!). Golden Eagles no covers last two after their own 7-game cover streak earlier in season. "Over" and Houston, based on recent team and series "totals" trends.
at GEORGIA vs. LSU (SEC Championship from Georgia Dome, Atlanta)...Georgia almost as host as LSU with ten straight wins and 8-2 vs. number in those games. Although Mark Richt has failed to cove his last four games as dog since 2009. LSU has covered seven straight games away from Baton Rouge. LSU, based on team trends.
at CLEMSON vs. VIRGINIA TECH (ACC Championship at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte)...Dabo no covers last four this season after 6-game cover streak previously. Beamer enduring a rather difficult point-spread campaign, just 4-8 vs. line including a loss to Clemson, but he has won and covered his last three ACC title game appearances. Virginia Tech, based on recent Clemson slide.
at MICHIGAN STATE vs. WISCONSIN (Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)...MSU-Wisconsin rematch, MSU has won and covered the past two seasons in reg.-season meetings at East Lansing (37-31 wild win this year). Spartans just 3-4 vs. line last 7 away from home. However, Bielema 14-4-1 on board last 19 since mid 2010. Wisconsin, based on extended Bielema spread marks.

Edwards: Handicapping GOY Odds
News: 2017 Golden Nugget GOY Odds
News: GOY - Conference Odds
Edwards: SEC Schedule Breakdown
Lawrence: 2017 Big Ten Preview
Edwards: Quarterback Rankings
Lawrence: 2017 ACC Preview
Edwards: Stoops Steps Down
Edwards: Hot Seat Coaches
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