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Bowl Trends - Part I

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NCAA College Football Expert Bowl Picks

Bowl Trends - Part II

Saturday, Dec. 17

New Mexico Bowl from Albuquerque
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. TEMPLE vs. WYOMING...Wyo 4-1 as dog away from Laramie TY, 13-3 against number in role since Dave Christensen arrived as coach in 2009. Owls 8-4 vs. spread in 2011 but only 2-2 as chalk away from home. Wyo not often in bowls but has won last two outright as DD dog (2004 Las Vegas vs. UCLA and 2009 New Mexico vs. Fresno). Wyoming, based on Christensen dog mark away from Laramie.

Idaho Potato Bowl from Boise
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. UTAH STATE vs. OHIO...Utags bowling for first time since 1997 in this same bowl game vs. Cincinnati. Solich 0-3 SU and vs. line in bowl games with Bobcats but is 17-9 his last 26 as dog since 2007. USU only covered two of last seven on board TY and was 1-5 its last six as chalk. Slight to Solich, based on team trends.

New Orleans Bowl from New Orleans
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. UL-LAFAYETTE vs. SAN DIEGO STATE...Mark Hudspeth waits for Miss. State job to open or one of the others (SUM, maybe Houston) in the region. ULL a staggering 7-0 as dog in 2011 and has covered 12 of last 13 as the "short" since last season. Ragin' Cajuns also 11-1 against line last 12 away from Lafayette! Rocky Long only covered 2 of last 7 as chalk this season, and Aztecs only 2-8 against points their last 10 as chalk away from Qualcomm Stadium. Rocky Long New Mexico & SDSU teams just 2-6 their last 8 as chalk away from home. ULL, based on team trends.

Tuesday, Dec. 20

Beef 'O Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl from St. Petersburg
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. MARSHALL...FIU very streaky vs. spread this season, opened and closed with three straight covers but lost six straight spread decisions in between. Golden panthers still 7-4 against points last 11 away from home including Little Caesar's Bowl win LY vs. Toledo. Doc Holliday just 2-4 vs. line away this season and 3-9 in role since taking over Herd in 2010. FIU, based on team trends.

Wednesday, Dec. 21

Poinsettia Bowl from San Diego
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. LA TECH vs. TCU...La Tech was flying down the stretch in 2011, with wins and covers in its last seven games! Sonny Dykes 14-5 vs. line last 19 on board, and Bulldogs were 5-0 as dog this season. Gary Patterson no covers last three bowls but had covered previous five. Frogs only 3-3 vs. line away from Fort Worth TY and just 2-6 as DD chalk in 2011. La Tech, based on team trends.

Thursday, Dec. 22

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl from Las Vegas
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. ARIZONA STATE vs. BOISE STATE...Boise has covered last three and four of last five bowls but closed 2011 on a pointspread downtick, dropping last 6 and 8 of last 10 vs. number (all as DD chalk). Broncos were 4-2 against number away from blue carpet in 2001, however, and are 17-4 vs. line away from Boise since 2008. ASU no covers last four this season for the departing Erickson and only 2-3 vs. line on road in 2011 after 10-2 spread mark in 2010. Slight to Boise, based on extended trends.

Saturday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl from Honolulu
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. NEVADA vs. SOUTHERN MISS...Pack just 2-4 SU and 1-5 vs. number in bowls for Chris Ault since 2005, including failures to cover in two chances at Aloha Bowl (though did win SU over UCF in 2005). Pack also dropped five of last six vs. spread in 2011. Ault is 5-2 last 7 as dog, however. Fedora will reportedly coach this game for USM, which has lost and failed to cover its last two bowls but did fashion 9-4 spread mark this season. Slight to USM, based on team trends.

Monday, Dec. 26

Independence Bowl from Shreveport
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. NORTH CAROLINA vs. MISSOURI...Gary Pinkel has failed to cover his last three years in bowl games. Tigers also only 1-4 as chalk TY and 3-7 last 10 laying points since mid 2010. Heels unbeaten vs. line last three years in bowls (all games down to the wire), but overall spread numbers very middling lately. Slight to North Carolina, based on recent Mizzou chalk woes.

Tuesday, Dec. 27

Little Caesar's Bowl from Detroit
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. PURDUE...Purdue bowling for first time since appearing in this bowl vs. CMU in 2007. Broncos were last bowling in 2008 Texas Bowl when losing vs. Rice. WMU 7-3-1 vs. spread its last 11 away from Waldo Stadium and was 4-0 as dog in 2011. Broncos 3-5 vs. line last 8 against Big Ten foes. Danny Hope just 5-8 last 13 as chalk since early 2009. Slight to WMU, based on team trends.

Belk Bowl from Raleigh
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at LOUISVILLE vs. NC STATE...Conflicting trends here, with Louisville 6-0 vs. line away from Papa John's in 2011, 9-0 last nine in role, and 11-1 since Charlie Strong arrived LY. Tom O'Brien BC and NCS teams, however, have covered in eight straight bowl games. O'Brien NCS teams 26-9 vs. line from sixth games of season onward since he arrived as Wolfpack coach in 2007. Slight to NCS, based on O'Brien bowl marks.

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