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Bowl Trends - Part II

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NCAA College Football Expert Bowl Picks

Bowl Trends - Part I

Wednesday, Dec. 28

Military Bowl from Washington, D.C.
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. TOLEDO vs. AIR FORCE...Calhoun has won and covered bowl games the past two years after dropping first two at AFA. Although Falcs only 10-15 vs. line overall the past two seasons. Rockets only 2-5 vs. spread outside of MAC (against FBS foes) the past two seasons. Slight to AFA, based on team trends.

Holiday Bowl from San Diego
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. CAL vs. TEXAS...Bears closed with a rush by covering their last four games in 2011. Although Tedford only 2-4 vs. spread last six bowls. Mack Brown has only covered one of last nine games with spread of seven or fewer since early 2010. Mack 3-7 vs. line last ten bowls. Cal, based on team trends.

Thursday, Dec. 29

(Champs Sports Bowl from Orlando
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. NOTRE DAME vs. FLORIDA STATE...Teams haven't met since 2003. Noles have covered last three and six of last seven bowls (1-0 for Jimbo). Note Irish "under" 16-8-1 since Kelly arrived. Brian Kelly 3-1 SU but 1-3 vs. line in bowls. ND has won and covered last two bowls after dropping previous nine SU. FSU and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Alamo Bowl from San Antonio
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. WASHINGTON vs. BAYLOR...Baylor 9-4 last 13 as chalk since early 2010. Bears haven't won a bowl game since Grant Teaff's last game in '92 Sun Bowl vs. Arizona, but have only played in two since (LY Texas Bowl and '94 Alamo Bowl)! Sarkisian only 6-8 as dog since 2010 as Huskies lost and failed to cover 3 of last 4 TY. Baylor "over" 10-1 TY and "over" 17-5-1 since 2010. Baylor and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Friday, Dec. 30

(Armed Forces Bowl from Dallas
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. TULSA vs. BYU...BYU on another late-season uptick like 2010, won last five and covered last six in 2011. Last year the Cougs covered their last five including bowl romp past UTEP. Bronco Mendenhall has won and covered his last two bowls, now 4-2 vs. spread in postseason. Tulsa did cover last five away from home TY and has covered 10 of last 11 away from Chapman Field/Skelly Stadium. Golden Hurricane has also won and covered last three bowls. BYU, based on late-season uptick.

Yankee Pinstripe Bowl from Bronx, New York)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. RUTGERS vs. IOWA STATE...Greg Schiano has won his last four bowls games SU and is 4-1 vs. spread in five bowls since 2005 campaign. Rutgers also 4-1 vs. line outside of Big East TY. ISU closed with a rush by covering five of its last six TY, including last five as dog. Slight to Rutgers, based on Schiano bowl marks.

Music City Bowl from Nashville
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. WAKE FOREST vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE...Grobe has won and covered three of four bowls at Wake. Grobe 23-15 as dog since 2005 if you exclude injury-wrecked 2010. MSU covered five of last six TY, and Bulldogs have won and covered last three well-spaced bowls since 2000 (1-0 for Dan Mullen). Wake, based on Grobe's extended dog marks.

Insight Bowl from Tempe
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. IOWA vs. OKLAHOMA...OU cooled off down the stretch, failing to cover last three and five of last six TY. Bob Stoops just 1-4 vs. number last five, and 2-6 vs. points last eight bowl games. Krik Fernetz has covered last four bowls and five of last six as bowl underdog. Ferentz 6-1 vs. spread last seven bowls. Ferentz only 1-3 as dog TY but 13-7 as "short" since 2007. Iowa, based on bowl trends.

Saturday, Dec. 31

Meineke Car Care Texas Bowl from Houston
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. TEXAS A&M vs. NORTHWESTERN...Ags only 2-9 vs. line last 11 TY and have lost and failed to cover last five bowls. Pat Fitzgerald only 4-8 as dog since 2010 but NU 14-7 last 21 as dog away and 3-0 vs. line in bowls for Fitzgerald. Northwestern, based on team and bowl trends.

Sun Bowl from El Paso
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. UTAH vs. GEORGIA TECH...Kyle Whittingham was 5-0 SU and vs. line in bowls (including a win over a Chan Gailey GT team in 2005 Emerald Bowl) prior to LY vs. Boise in Las Vegas Bowl. Whittingham Ute teams 15-10 as dog since he took over in 2005. Utes overall 8-2 SU in bowls since 1999. Paul Johnson 0-3 SU and vs. line in bowls at GT, and Jackets no wins or covers their last six bowls. Tech only 1-6 vs. line last seven in 2011. Utah, based on team and bowl trends.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl from San Francisco)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. UCLA vs. ILLINOIS...Rematch of some memorable past bowls, including Illinois 45-14 win in 1947 Rose Bowl, UCLA 45-9 in 1984 Rose Bowl, and UCLA 6-3 in 1991 Sun Bowl. Bruins also won another 6-3 yawner vs. Illinois in 2003, Karl Dorrell's first win as Bruins coach. Illini lost last six SU in 2011 although they are 7-4 vs. spread last eleven away from Champaign-Urbana since LY. Bruins have covered 5 of last 8 bowls and covered four of last six overall in 2011. UCLA, based on recent Illinois fade.

Liberty Bowl from Memphis
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. CINCINNATI vs. VANDERBILT...Vandy making only second bowl appearance since 1982 (2008 was the other) and Dores were 9-3 vs. line for James Franklin TY, including 4-1 as chalk. Cincy no covers last four bowls and Bearcats just 1-4 against spread last five in 2011. Cincy 4-9 vs. number last 13 away from home as well (4-7 for Butch Jones). Vandy, based on team and bowl trends.

Chick Fil-A Bowl from Atlanta)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. VIRGINIA vs. AUBURN...Auburn very so-so 4-8 vs. line TY, and Tigers 6-14 vs. spread for Chizik in their last 20 games non-Cam Newton. Note Virginia "under" 8-2-1 in 2011. Cavs covered 4 of 5 bowls for Al Groh but haven't been to postseason since 2007. Slight to Virginia and "under," based on Auburn non-Cam marks and "totals" trends.

Monday, Jan. 2

Ticket City Bowl from Dallas
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. PENN STATE vs. HOUSTON...Nittany Lions just 3-10-1 their last 14 on board and 1-5-1 last seven as dog. Penn State 29-1 last 12 as dog. UH 1-4 vs. line last five bowls but was 10-3 vs. spread in 2011. Houston, based on Penn State negatives.

Outback Bowl from Tampa Bay
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. MICHIGAN STATE vs. GEORGIA...Mark Richt is 4-1 SU and vs. line in last five bowls, with the loss a year ago vs. UCF at Liberty. Dawgs covered 8 of last 11 TY and were 5-0 vs. points their last five with spreads of 10 or fewer. Rematch of 2009 Cap One Bowl (after 2008 season) in which Georgia won and covered, 24-12. Spartans 8-2 vs. line last 10 TY, although Dantonio no wins or covers in last three bowls. Georgia, based on bowl trends.

Capital One Bowl from Orlando)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. NEBRASKA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA...Bo Pelini 3-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with Huskers, including 2003 Alamo Bowl as interim HC vs. Mich. State after Solich ouster. Spurrier no wins or covers last three years in bowls and just 2-5 vs. spread last 7 away from Williams-Brice Stadium. Slight to Nebraska, based on bowl trends.

Gator Bowl from Jacksonville)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. FLORIDA vs. OHIO STATE...Gators enter "Gator" on 8-game spread losing streak. Although Florida did win and cover 5 of 6 bowls for Urban Meyer (lone loss after 2007 to Michigan in Lloyd Carr's last game as coach). Buckeyes won and covered last three bowls for Tressel and are 7-2 vs. number last nine bowls since 2002. Slight to OSU, based on recent Florida negatives.

Rose Bowl from Pasadena)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. WISCONSIN vs. OREGON...Ducks no wins or covers in two bowl games for Chip Kelly. Bielema 3-2 SU and vs. line in bowls. Bielema has covered last four as dog. Bielema 14-5-1 last 20 on board since mid 2010. Ducks surprisingly better on road vs. points (4-1) than at home(2-5-1) this season. Both "over" 9-4 this season, though Wiscy "under" 5-1 last 6 bowls and Ducks "under" last two bowls for Kelly. Wisconsin, based on team trends.

Fiesta Bowl from Glendale)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. STANFORD vs. OKLAHOMA STATE...Pointspread showdown, Tree 10-2 vs. line TY and 13-2 last 15 on board, OSU 19-6 against points since LY. Cowboys also 11-1 against spread away from Stillwater since LY. Gundy only 1-2 in last three bowls but did rout Arizona LY at Alamo. Tree has covered last seven vs. non-conference opposition. Slight to Stanford, based on team trends.

Tuesday, Jan. 3

Sugar Bowl from New Orleans)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. MICHIGAN vs. VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer only 4-6 vs. spread last ten bowls and has struggled vs. ranked teams. Beamer is 8-5 as a dog since 2005, but was only 4-9 against number this season. Michigan 5-14 vs. line away from Ann Arbor since 2008 but most of that was Rodriguez' doing, 2-2 in role for Hoke TY. Wolverines 1-3 vs. line last four bowls and 2-6 SU last eight bowls dating to the Lloyd Carr years. Michigan 7-4 vs. spread TY for Hoke, who is 16-8 vs. line last two years at SDSU & Michigan. Slight to Michigan, based on Brady Hoke marks.

Wednesday, Jan. 4

Orange Bowl from Orlando)
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. WEST VIRGINIA vs. CLEMSON...West Virginia no covers last three years in bowls for Stewart. Holgorsen spread marks this year were very middling. But he was 2-1 as dog, and Mountaineers 11-3 getting points since 2005. Dabo had dropped four straight vs. line late in season until ACC title win vs. Beamer, but he's only 4-7 last 11 laying points away from Death Valley. Dabo also just 1-2 SU and vs. line in bowls. WVU, based on team trends.

Friday, Jan. 6

Cotton Bowl from Arlington, Texas
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. KANSAS STATE vs. ARKANSAS...Bill Snyder was 9-2 vs. line in 2011 including 7-1 as dog! Snyder 15-6 as dog since returning to Wildcats in 2009. K-State, however, has failed to cover its last five bowls dating back to the last win at the Jan. 1, 2001 Cotton Bowl vs. Tennessee. Petrino 28-15 last 43 spread decisions at Arkansas but only covered 1 of 5 away from home this season. Arkansas no covers in its last four bowls, either. Kansas State, based on Bill Snyder dog trends.

Saturday, Jan. 7

BBVA Compass Bowl from Birmingham
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. SMU vs. PITTSBURGH...These two once met in a memorable Jan. 1, 1983 Cotton Bowl won by SMU 7-3, Eric Dickerson over Dan Marino in their last college games. Pitt returns to this bowl for a second straight year again with an interim coach. June Jones, however, no covers last six TY for SMU and just 7-15 vs. spread last 22 since mid 2010. June Jones also 1-6 last 7 as dog. Pitt covered its last five this season prior to Todd Graham's departure. Pitt, based on SMU negatives.

Sunday, Jan. 8

GoDaddy.com Bowl from Mobile
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. ARKANSAS STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Ark State 10-2 vs. line TY and 17-7 last two years vs. number. First Red Wolves bowl since losing 2005 New Orleans Bowl (at Lafayette) vs. Southern Miss. NIU had lost and failed to cover in four straight bowls prior to LY's 40-17 romp past Fresno in Boise. Huskies only 5-8 vs. line in 2011. Ark State, based on team trends.

Monday, Jan. 9

BCS Championship from New Orleans
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
vs. ALABAMA vs. LSU...LSU has won and covered close 3-point decisions the last two meetings including 9-6 OT win Nov. 5 at Tuscaloosa. Les Miles 10-3 vs. line but covered all seven away from Baton Rouge, and has covered last eight away from Tiger Stadium. This series had gone "over" five straight prior to earlier 9-6 scoreline in November. Tigers "over" 12-5-1 last 18 since mid 2010. Saban dropped three of last four vs. line in 2011 and is 4-3 as dog with Bama (hasn't been a dog since 2009 SEC title game vs. Florida). Saban 4-3 vs. line last seven bowls at LSU & Bama. Les Miles 5-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with LSU. LSU, based on team trends.

  
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Marshall: Team to Watch - Marshall
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Blankenship: Fade Alert - Ohio
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