Week 4 Betting System
September 17, 2012
By Marc Lawrence
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Game Four On The Floor
Our powerful database tells us that Game Four is a critical turning point for most college football teams, especially if they're playing off their first loss of the season.
From a handicapping perspective, the venue goes a long way in determining Game Four ATS (Against the Spread) results as well.
Check out the situations of teams in Game Four, off their initial loss of the season, since 1980…
Teams playing at HOME in this role tend to perform poorly as evidenced by a 90-109-3 ATS overall mark since 1980.
Home teams in that role this week include:
Arizona State vs. Utah
Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan
Tennessee vs. Akron
USC vs. California
Virginia Tech vs. Bowling Green
Wake Forest vs. Army
Louisiana Lafayette (next week vs. FIU)
If these teams are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season (Wake Forest and Louisiana Lafayette) they dip to 6-19-2 ATS. To top it off, if they are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season and are facing a foe that is not off a spread win of 35 or more points in its last game these bummed-out hosts sink to 3-19-2 ATS. Wake Forest finds itself in this precarious role this week.
Teams playing AWAY in this role somehow find point-spread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 101-78-2-1 ATS dating back to 1980.
Away teams in that role this week include:
BYU at Boise State
Maryland at West Virginia
Mississippi at Tulane
South Florida at Ball State
Utah State at Colorado State
Virginia at TCU
These teams are taking to the road this week after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week. (Note: Indiana will journey out in this role next week at Northwestern.) When these teams are also off an ATS loss, they improve to 89-56-1 ATS in these 'Game Four On The Floor' situations, with all of the above teams, except Utah State, in this role week.
And if these teams off a spread loss are facing an opponent that is off a SU and ATS loss they ratchet up to 28-11 ATS, including 17-4 ATS if the won 7 or fewer games last season. That would put Ole Miss in this desirable role this week.
There you have it… a critical Game Four theory that will likely 'floor' a team or two this week!
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