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ACC Report - Week 6

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Big Ten  ·   ACC   ·   Pac-12

Well, I was 3-1 on my picks for the Atlantic Coast Conference last weekend, and the only loss was a late add-on. I took my son to the Idaho-North Carolina game, and it was a deluge overnight, during the morning and into the afternoon. I figured it would be a lower scoring game. Idaho held up their end of the bargain with a goose egg, but North Carolina scored their most points EVER, walloping the Vandals 66-0. That caused the over to cash midway through the fourth quarter. Oh well. Let's try for a goose egg in the loss column of the ACC picks this weekend.

Saturday - Miami (Fla.) at Notre Dame (NBC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
Miami at Notre Dame
Ahh, if this were only the 1980's, this would be a game everyone wants to see. As it stands, it is the No. 10 team in the nation hosting a 4-1 Hurricanes team, so this game has become a little more attractive over the past couple of weeks. Miami thumped NC State last week at home, with QB Stephen Morris introducing himself to the nation with a school record 566 yards passing and five touchdowns. That's better than Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde, etc. ever did. However, look for Morris to take a huge step backward against an Irish defense which has been voracious this season. Just ask Denard Robinson and Michigan. The Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their past five games at neutral site games, and this one will be played at Soldier Field in Chicago. Notre Dame already has a neutral site game under their belt, swatting Navy and covering over in Dublin, Ireland, to open the season. However, ND is 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning record. If you're just dying to make a play for this game, the under might be the way to go. The under is 41-19 in Miami's past 60 non-conference games, while the under is 12-3 for ND against ACC opponents, and 6-1 in their past seven games overall.
Saturday - Virginia Tech at North Carolina (Gameplan/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
Virginia Tech at North Carolina
We could call this one the Jekyll and Hyde Bowl, as we're not exactly sure which team will show up for which team. Starting with the Hokies, they looked good in dispatching Georgia Tech to open the season, but they inexplicably fell to Pittsburgh on the road Sept. 15, and again at Cincinnati last weekend. They're 3-0 SU at home, but 0-2 on the road. That has to change. Will it change Saturday? That's the big question. The Tar Heels smashed Idaho last week, as mentioned above, and have thumped home opponents to the tune of 155-6 in three games at Kenan Stadium. Methinks this one will be a little different, however, as the competition level is much better than that of Elon, East Carolina and Idaho. The Hokies are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 road games. In addition, VT is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven conference games, including 0-1 this season. UNC is 5-0 ATS in their past five home games, and 10-2 ATS in their past 12 home games against teams with a winning record. However, the dog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and the road team has covered six straight times. The under might be the play here, as VT has gone under in four straight ACC games, and the under is 6-2 in their past eight overall. For UNC, the under has connected in five straight in this series, although the over has hit in four of their past five home games.
Saturday - Florida State at North Carolina State (ESPN2, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
Florida State at North Carolina State
The Florida State express rolls into Raleigh looking to take claim another ACC victory, but most opponents know, especially at night, that Carter-Finley Stadium is a difficult place to play, especially under the lights. Just ask Clemson last season, as they were rolled by the Wolfpack in a late-season evening contest. Speaking of rolled, whatever happened to CB David Amerson for NC State? He entered the season with all kinds of fanfare and accolades, and was supposed to be the Darrelle Revis of the ACC. So far, he has looked more like former NFL DB Elvis Patterson, nicknamed Toast. Amerson was on the field for all five of those Morris TD throws in Miami. NC State is not playing well, but again, strange things happen in this series, especially in Raleigh. The Seminoles are just 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 meetings with the Wolfpack, and FSU is 0-4-1 ATS in the past five meetings at Carter-Finley. In addition, the dog is 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings in this series. Remember back in 1998, a 25-point underdog Wolfpack team with WR Torry Holt stunned a then-No. 2 ranked FSU team by a 24-7 score. Am I saying it will happen again? Well, I am not betting the moneyline and NC State, but this is a dangerous game for Florida State in their first true road test of the season.
Saturday - Georgia Tech at Clemson (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
Georgia Tech at Clemson
What happened to Georgia Tech? They looked pretty impressive, despite a loss, in their opening game at Virginia Tech. Then, they got it done at home against Presbyterian and Virginia. The latter was an impressive 56-20 win, which looked like the Yellow Jackets were back on track. However, they then blew a giant lead against Miami two weeks ago, slipping 42-36 in overtime. If that wasn't bad enough, they were upended by Middle Tennessee, a Sun Belt team which was tripped up by McNeese State earlier in the year. And it isn't bad enough Ga. Tech was beaten at home, but they were trucked 49-28. So what can we expect at 3:30 on Saturday? The Ramblin' Wreck is favored by 10.5. Will we get the team that stomped UVA, or the team which was completely listless against the Blue Raiders last week? It's hard to say, but I wouldn't touch Ga. Tech with a 10-foot pole. They're 4-9-1 ATS over their past 14 games, and Clemson looked awfully good dispatching BC on the road last week despite no WR Sammy Watkins (illness) out of the lineup. Officially, Watkins is listed as questionable this week.
Saturday - Virginia at Duke (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game
Virginia at Duke
The Duke Blue Devils are 4-1. Let me repeat that, because they don't get to say that very often in Durham. The Duke Blue Devils are 4-1 AND they are 1-0 in the ACC standings, one of five teams in the 12-team league with an unblemished conference record. It's hard to believe, but Duke is legit. And Vegas is slowly starting to take notice, installing them as a one-point favorite over Virginia, a team they have historically struggled against. Heck, they have historically struggled against everybody. The facts are simple here. Duke is 3-0 at home, Virginia is 0-2 on the road. The Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their past six home games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five overall, while the Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning record. Virginia is 0-4 ATS in their past four overall against winning teams and 0-6-1 ATS in their past seven overall. And Duke has played UVA closely of late, while maybe not necessarily winning. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS in the past six showdowns at Wallace Wade Stadium. Can you pull the trigger? Well, now that you're all lathered up, and a believer in Duke, there is a big note of concern. QB Sean Renfree (elbow) is questionable, so it is a good idea to wait until the final health report on his status before submitting your play. Renfree is the engine that drives the offense, and a start by Anthony Boone wouldn't necessarily be terrible, but it wouldn't give me the same confidence Duke can win again.
Other Games to Watch
Matchup Notes
Wake Forest at Maryland
Wake Forest has been a strange team this season, looking decent one week, and looking absolutely atrocious the next. It seems there are quite a few teams like that in the ACC this season, so be very careful. Maryland has been atrocious pretty much all of the time. It's hard to believe they hung with West Virginia the way they did, and I guess we can chalk that up to it being a rivalry of sorts. The Terrapins are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games, and 0-8 ATS in their past eight home games. The Deacs are 6-15 ATS in their past 21 road games, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven games in the month of October. The favorite is 4-1 in the past five, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. Wake Forest has struggled with Maryland, going 3-10 ATS in the past 13 meetings, including 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to College Park.
Boston College at Army
The Eagles have been a high-flying bunch, and at first glance BC is easily the play here. Boston College is 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, while Army is 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference games, including a loss at Wake Forest two weeks ago. However, digging deeper, we see that BC is just 7-19 ATS in their past 26 games against teams with a losing record. That's alarming, as perhaps the Eagles don't get up for games against poor teams. The Black Knights are 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games, so keep that in mind. Just to confuse you more, though, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six games. With all of these trends, both recent and historically, the best thing to do is stay away, or bet BC lightly.

News: 2018 College Playoff Props
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