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ACC Report - Week 7

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Editor's Note: Don't miss out on college football winners in Week 7 from Joe Williams. Click to win!

Big Ten  ·   ACC  ·   Pac-12

Last week, my positive cash streak in the ACC was put in serious, serious jeopardy. If you bet Clemson, and didn't see the final minute, you should be very pleased. The Tigers were laying 10 1/2-11 points, and were up nine with just about 50 seconds remaining. They had the ball first and goal at the Georgia Tech 5, and the Yellow Jackets had no timeouts. Had the ball been at the 50, or inside Clemson territory, etc. - they likely would have knelt and ended the game.

However, the Tigers had some difficulty handling the ball inside the 5 earlier in the game, and in past weeks, so unorthodox head coach Dabo Swinney kept his offense on the field to get game-time red zone practice. Clemson ended up punching it in, albeit with reserves, to go up 16, thus covering the number. Thankfully that happened, because I was duped into believing Miami had a chance against Notre Dame, and easily lost that one.

Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 10/10/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 15-7-0 ( 68.2% , +720)
PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1   Won (+90) 
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1  Won (+190) 
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1  Won (+190) 
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2  Won (+80) 
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1  Won (+90) 
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1  Won (+80) 
Saturday - North Carolina at Miami (Fla.) (ESPNU, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game
North Carolina at Miami
The Tar Heels are coming off an impressive home win against Virginia Tech, squaring their ACC record at 1-1. As such, they need this game badly, as the Hurricanes are sitting pretty at 3-0 atop the Coastal Division despite an awful thumping at the hands of Notre Dame last weekend. The Tar Heels are just 1-5 ATS in their past six road games, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning record. On the other side, while the Hurricanes have been absolutely thrashed, failing to come close to covering in two marquee non-conference games against K-State and ND, they are 5-1 ATS in their past six conference games, including a perfect 3-0 ATS mark against ACC foes this season. Remember, though, that the Tar Heels are 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, and the underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight battles between the sides. Basically, all of these line trends scream stay away. However, playing the total might make more sense. The over is 5-2 in UNC's past seven games overall, and 4-0 in their past four October contests (including last week). The over is 4-1 in Miami's past five games, and 8-3 in their past 11 conference battles. In addition, the over has cashed in four of the previous five meetings.
Saturday - Duke at Virginia Tech (Gameplan/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game
Duke at Virginia Tech
The Duke Blue Devils are starting to look for real, or they have just taken advantage of a semi-soft schedule. We'll definitely get a better feel for Duke this weekend against a damaged, yet still dangerous, Virginia Tech team at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg. Duke winning at Virginia Tech looked like a pipe dream earlier in the season, but they legitimately have a shot, especially if QB Sean Renfree (elbow) can get back to 100 percent. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their past four games since being thumped by Stanford on the road earlier this season. However, while at home Duke has been the play, they are just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips away from Wallace Wade Stadium. However, the Hokies are a dismal 1-4 ATS in their past five conference games, including a pasting at UNC last week. They are just 3-13 ATS in their past 16 games on grass, and 0-3-1 in their past four games against teams with a winning record. Could Duke really go to Virginia Tech and win? If so, they'd become bowl eligible for the first time since appearing in the 1994 Hall of Fame Bowl (now the Outback Bowl) against Wisconsin.
Saturday - Boston College at Florida State (ESPN2, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game
Boston College at Florida State
Poor Boston College. They will be walking into a hornet's nest in Tallahassee Saturday afternoon, facing a very angry Seminoles team that was neutered in Raleigh last Saturday night by N.C. State. The 'Noles blew a 16-0 lead, and fell 17-16 in one of the biggest upsets of this season, likely losing all hope of a national championship in the process. What looked like an almost impenetrable defense early in the season allowed the Wolfpack to march downfield for a late game-winning touchdown, leaving most garnet and gold supporters to wonder what might have been. As for BC, well...they just stink. They are 0-2 on the road this season, including a setback against Army last week. If they were to turn their season around, they needed to win at West Point last weekend. If they couldn't handle Army, one has to think they're going to have a whale of a time trying to stop FSU's skill players. The line is just 27.5, and that could easily be erased by halftime. While BC has a semi-respectable offense, led by QB Chase Rettig, their defense is just poor. FSU should mash them in their bounce-back week. If you're brave enough, BC is 9-4 ATS in their past 13 road games, while FSU is 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC battles. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven battles, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. However, I am not touching Boston College with a 20-foot-pole, twice as long as the pole I usually use to avoid teams.
Saturday - Maryland at Virginia (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game
Maryland at Virginia
It's hard to believe Maryland is 3-2 overall on the season, as this team is just not good. But they find a way to win. Overall, though, they're a hard team to figure. They are 2-3 ATS this season, barely scraping by William & Mary, before pasting Temple on the road. They were dropped by UConn at home, then stayed with West Virginia in Morgantown, losing just 31-21. Then, last week, they beat Wake Forest, but failed to cover in a low-scoring affair. They have gone under in two straight, including a very rare under for West Virginia, after a pair of overs earlier. Virginia, on the other hand, isn't hard to figure at all. They're just bad. They have dropped four straight games, including a 42-17 pasting at Duke last week. The Cavaliers are 0-5-1 ATS this season, including five straight non-covers. The over has also connected in three of their past four games. However, the Terps are just 1-4 ATS in their past trips to Charlottesville, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five battles. If you're considering Maryland, those numbers are confusing. It's best to stay away from this one, as it is tough to predict, other than it is almost a certainty bad football will be played. The under might be the play. The total has gone under in four of the past five meetings between these teams. For UVA, the under has connected in 14 of the past 20 games, and is 8-1 in Virginia's past nine home games. For Maryland, the under is 4-0 in their past four road games against teams with a losing record, and 13-6 in their past 19 October games.

  
HEADLINES
Edwards: College Playoff Props
Pelini: AD's agenda led to firing at FAU
Kansas makes Cozart starting QB
Dan Dierdorf back in booth for Michigan
War of words in Northwestern fight
Texas A&M QB Joeckel to transfer
Dismissed Clemson QB Kelly apologizes
Cure Bowl becomes Orlando's third bowl
Dabo: QB Stoudt Clemson's starter
MORE HEADLINES
 
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