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Pac-12 Report - Week 11
November 9, 2012
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on college football winners in Week 11 from Joe Williams. Click to win!
Big Ten · ACC · Pac-12
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This game has taken on a different look than it would have had in past weeks. The Oregon State Beavers turn to QB Cody Vaz for a second straight game, as he gets the nod over Sean Mannion (knee), who is not quite 100 percent. Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan gets the start over Josh Nunes, based mostly on performance. Hogan passed for 183 yards and two touchdowns, while giving the Cardinal an added dimension with his tremendous escapability in the pocket. Of course, that success came against an awful Colorado team, not a nationally-ranked and dangerous Oregon State club. Stanford is 5-0 at home this season, and they lead the Pac-12 with a plus-11 turnover margin. The Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, and 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 games overall. Stanford is 14-5-1 ATS in their past 20 Pac-12 games, and 22-10 ATS in their past 32 in Palo Alto, so something has to give. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. However, the under might be the best play here. The under has cashed in four of Oregon State's past five games following an ATS win, and the under is 4-0 in the past four for Stanford overall, and 5-1 in their past six conference games. In this series, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings, and 4-1 in the past five meetings in Palo Alto. |
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The Trojans limp into this game losers of two straight, and the Sun Devils would just love to help add to their woes while becoming bowl eligible with a signature win. USC has failed to cover in four of their past five games, and they are 0-4 ATS in their past four games against a team with a winning record. In addition, USC is 0-4 ATS at the Coliseum against a visiting team with a winning record. For AZ State, they haven't had much more success. While they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on grass, they are 3-7 ATS in the past 10 Pac-12 games, and 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight road games. In addition, they are also 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight against teams with a winning record. The Sun Devils are also 9-24-2 ATS in their past 35 road contests against a team with a winning home record. This game screams stay away. |
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Utah has turned it around lately, at least for bettors. The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their past five games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five conference games. However, Washington has been equally impressive, especially at home, registering wins against Top 10 opponents (at the time) Stanford and Oregon State. They are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a losing record. U-Dub is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games overall. However, the under is what really might draw the eye of bettors. The under has cashed in four straight roadies for Utah, and the under is 9-4 in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. For Washington, the under has cashed in six straight games in Seattle, and is 6-2 in their past eight overall. The under is also 5-2 in their past seven conference clashes. |
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The UCLA Bruins have been a bit of a tease this season. Just when you think they have it going in the right direction and they should roll over an opponent on their schedule, they falter. It happened against Oregon State earlier this season, although the Beavers turned out to be no slouch. But then it happened again at Cal a few weeks ago, and they were rolled - badly. UCLA is just 5-11 ATS in their past 16 games, so a trip to the Palouse might not be the fuel this team needs to keep going. The Cougs are still trying to find some consistency, and they are ineligible for a bowl following their seventh loss last time out. However, they are 8-2-1 ATS in their past 11 games following an ATS loss, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a winning record. In addition, they are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games in Pullman against a team with a winning record. If you need further push to pick WaZu, consider the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight matchups in this series. The Bruins are also 2-9 ATS in the past 11 meetings, and just 1-6 ATS in their past seven meetings at Washington State. |
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The high-flying Ducks take their show on the road to Berkeley this weekend. While it is widely expected they will win, and win handily, a cover might not necessarily be a given. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. Of course, that featured some much better Bears teams. Cal is just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. In addition, Jeff Tedford's group is just 1-5 ATS in their past six home games, one spanking of UCLA last month was the lone exception. The Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their past four games, 6-0 ATS in their past six games on grass, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven games overall. They have also covered in four straight Pac-12 games. In the past five meetings, the under has cashed each time, but are you brave enough to bet an under in an Oregon game? The over has cashed in 23 of Oregon's past 31 conference games, and is 35-17 in their past 52 games overall. |
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The Buffaloes have been downright abysmal this season, and they likely can't wait for this nightmare season to end. Colorado is 5-17 ATS in their past 22 games against a team with a winning record, so it isn't just this season that they have struggled. They are 6-20 ATS in their past 26 conference games, and they are a dismal 1-12 ATS in their past 13 games on a grass surface. On the other side, Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on grass, but just 1-5 ATS in their past six games against a team with a losing record. The over might be a better play, as the over has come through in 21 of Colorado's past 30 games in the month of November. The over has cashed in five straight games for Arizona, and is 4-0 in their past four games in Tucson. The over is also 16-5 in Arizona's past 21 Pac-12 skirmishes. |
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