Week 11 Betting Recap
The big upset in college football's Week 11 action clearly was Texas A&M shocking defending national champion Alabama 29-24 in Tuscaloosa. That shook up the national title race but was a pretty good result for the book.
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Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel - i.e. "Johnny Football" - became a household name with his performance. The freshman was 24 of 31 passing for 253 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed for 92 yards against the nation's top defense. Meanwhile, Tide quarterback A.J. McCarron hadn't been intercepted all season but A&M got two. The 29 points allowed were the most Alabama had given up at home since 2007, and it was the first time since that year that the No. 1 team in the Associated Press poll lost in November. That season both Ohio State and LSU lost in the month as the No. 1 team yet they would end up meeting in the BCS National Championship Game.
Alabama closed as a 14-point favorite and took more than 57% of the action (no moneyline). Bettors did come out ahead on the total with almost 67% on the under 55 points. The defeat dropped Alabama to No. 4 in the BCS standings, so it will need to win out and have two of Kansas State, Oregon and Notre Dame lose for a chance at repeating. Bama and Notre Dame are 13/2 to win it all, with Oregon the new even-money favorite ahead of Kansas State (3/2). Georgia, which plays Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, is the only other betting option at 20/1.
The top overall game result for bettors was Oregon's 59-17 win at California. Oregon has its own freshman superstar quarterback in Marcus Mariota and he threw for a career-high 377 yards and tied a school record with six touchdown passes. The high-powered Ducks have scored at least 40 points in 13 straight games, a major college record. Oregon closed as a 32.5-point favorite versus Cal and got almost 84% of the lean. The over 69 points took almost 90%. The top player prop results for bettors were all on quarterbacks: Notre Dame's signal-callers over 14.5 completions against Boston College; Penn State's Matt McGloin under 2.5 combined touchdown passes and interceptions versus Nebraska; and Southern Cal's Matt Barkley over 2.5 touchdown passes against Arizona State.
The book's top game result was the other big upset of the weekend: Syracuse's 45-26 victory over previously unbeaten Louisville. The loss was doubly painful for the Cards as starting running back Senorise Perry suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament and will miss the rest of the season. The junior rushed for 705 yards and a Big East-leading 11 touchdowns this season. Louisville still controls its own destiny to win the Big East. If they win their final two games, the Cardinals reach the second BCS bowl in school history. UL was a two-point favorite against Syracuse and took almost 85% of the action.
The book also came out ahead on Boston College covering at +20 against the Irish. Player prop-wise, the best results for the book were Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib over 2.5 total touchdown passes and interceptions versus Louisville; Mississippi State QB Tyler Russell over 18.5 completions against LSU; and former Heisman favorite Geno Smith of West Virginia over 32.5 completions against Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers have dropped four straight and Smith likely won't even be a Heisman finalist at this point.
Early-Week Live Betting Games
There's just one live play-by-play college football option before Friday and it's Wednesday big Mid-American Conference showdown between Toledo and Northern Illinois. The host Huskies opened as 11-point favorites.
The winner of the game will no doubt be the MAC West champion. Northern Illinois (9-1, 6-0) clinches a spot in Detroit for the conference championship with a victory. The Huskies are the defending MAC champs and have won nine straight since a season-opening loss to Iowa. Toledo (8-2, 5-1) would still have to beat Akron next week to win the division, but the Zips (1-10, 0-7) are one of the worst programs in the nation. Toledo hasn't played in the MAC title game since 2004.
Expect some offensive fireworks if the past two meetings between Toledo and NIU are any indication. In 2010, the Huskies won 65-30. Last year, they prevailed 63-60 in one of the most offensively entertaining games of 2011. The Huskies and Rockets combined for 1,121 yards of offense and a MAC-record 17 touchdowns in the second-highest scoring game in league history. The home team has covered in four of the past five meetings.
Northern Illinois enters this one on the nation's longest home winning streak at 20 in a row. Huskies QB Jordan Lynch is second in the MAC with 1,342 yards rushing and is top in passing efficiency (155.6). Rockets running back David Fluellen is second in the nation in rushing with 1,381 yards.
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