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College Bowl Trends - Part I
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Bowl Trends - Part II
Friday, Dec. 21
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at BALL STATE vs. UCF (Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl)...Ball State 9-3 vs. line in 2012 and 14-4 vs. number last 18 on board since late 2011. Cards 5-2 vs. line away in 2012, 29-13 in role away from Muncie dating to 2007, and 21-6 as dog away from home since 2007. UCF 2-5 as chalk away from Orlando since last season. Ball State, based on team trends.
Saturday, Dec. 22
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at EAST CAROLINA vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (New Orleans Bowl)...ULL returns to the sight of its exciting bowl win over San Diego State last December. Ragin' Cajuns 4-2 vs. line away from Lafayette this season, 17-4 in that role since 2010 campaign. Ruffin McNeill's ECU only 2-6 vs. spread its last eight away from Greenville. Louisiana, based on team trends.
at WASHINGTON vs. BOISE STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)...Boise's third straight Las Vegas Bowl, won and covered handily the past two years. Chris Petersen has covered last four and five of six bowls since taking over as Bronco coach in 2006. Boise 26-8 vs. number away from blue carpet since 2008 season. Huskies just 4-8 vs. line away since 2011, and U-Dub 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls under Steve Sarkisian. Boise State, based on road and bowl marks.
Monday, Dec. 24
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at SMU vs. FRESNO STATE (Sheraton Bowl)...Fresno was a pointspread revelation this season, covering 11 of its 12 games on the board. Bulldogs also 4-0 vs. spread outside of Mountain West and are 7-1 vs. spread last eight away from Bulldog Stadium. June Jones just 1-4 vs. line away from Dallas this season and 2-7 vs. spread last nine on road since mid 2011. Fresno State, based on team trends.
Wednesday, Dec. 26
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (Little Caesars Bowl)...Chippewas closed with a flourish by winning and covering their last three and four of their last five this season. Previously, CMU had been a pointspread disaster, dropping 24 of previous 32 decisions vs. number. WKU went in mostly the opposite direction, its 17-game spread win streak snapped near midseason and dropping four of last six vs. spread. But Hilltoppers have covered all 12 of their spread decisions away from Bowling Green since 2011! Western Kentucky, based on extended team trends.
Thursday, Dec. 27
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at BOWLING GREEN vs. SAN JOSE STATE (Military Bowl)...San Jose has been on quite a pointspread run since last season, covering last four and ten of twelve in 2012, 13 of last 15 since late 2011, and 18 of last 22 on board since early 2011. Spartans have also covered their last eight away from home. Bowling Green also closed fast in 2012 with covers in seven of its last eight games this season. Falcs have lost and failed to cover their last two bowls and haven't won and covered in a bowl game since 2004 against Memphis in GMAC Bowl. San Jose State, based on team trends.
at CINCINNATI vs. DUKE (Belk Charlotte Bowl)...First Duke bowl game since Fred Goldsmith's 1994 Blue Devils faced Wisconsin and lost to Badgers 34-20 in Hall of Fame (now Outback) Bowl in Tampa; prior to that, Duke hadn't "bowled" since 1989 under Steve Spurrier and hasn't won a bowl since beating Arkansas 7-6 in the 1961 Cotton Bowl! Blue Devils closed slowly this season by losing and failing to cover their last four games, but HC David Cutcliffe is 2-0 SU in bowls dating to his Ole Miss days. Cutcliffe is 5-1 vs. line last six against non-ACC opposition. Duke, based on team trends.
at BAYLOR vs. UCLA (Holiday Bowl)...Baylor closed season on an uptick with covers in its last five games, and Bears 16-8 overall vs. number the last two season. Art Briles only 1-3 SU in bowl games, however. Bruins 8-5 vs. line in Jim Mora debut season. Slight to Baylor, based on team trends.
Friday, Dec. 28
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at OHIO vs. UL-MONROE (Independence Bowl, Friday)... Solich hit the skids vs. number as 2012 progressed, only 1-7 vs. spread last eight TY. Solich also no covers last four on road TY. Solich won and covered his bowl games last year (vs. Utah State) but previously was 0-3 SU and vs. line as bowl coach with the Bobcats. Meanwhile, ULM 6-1 vs. line away from home this season and 8-1 against spread last nine away from Malone Stadium since late 2011. UL-Monroe, based on team trends.
at RUTGERS vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Russell Athletic Bowl)...Rutgers cooled off down the stretch this season, losing and failing to cover four of is last five games, but Beamer had more problems, only 3-9 against the line this season. Hokies only 7-20 last 27 games on board since late in 2010 campaign, and Beamer only 4-7 vs. spread last his last 11 bowl games. Scarlet Knights 16-9 vs. number overall since 2011. Rutgers, based on recent Beamer spread woes.
at MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS TECH (Meineke Texas Bowl)...Rematch of 2006 Insight Bowl when Minnesota blew a huge lead to lose in OT and Glen Mason was dismissed after the game. Gophers last bowled in 2009 but have lost four straight in postseason (1-3 vs. line in those) since 20-16 win over Alabama in 2004 Liberty Bowl. Texas Tech again faded down stretch, no covers last five this season, and Red Raiders1-9 vs. spread last five games of the past two campaigns. Minnesota, based on Texas Tech late-season fade numbers.
Saturday, Dec. 29
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at AIR FORCE vs. RICE (Armed Forces Bowl)... Air Force has covered its last three bowl games after Troy Calhoun lost and failed to cover his first two in postseason. Four of the Calhoun bowl games have been in this Armed Forces Bowl. But Falcs really backed up down the stretch in 2012 with no covers in last four games and just 3-9 overall vs. spread this season. Falcs just 12-23 overall last 35 vs. number since early in 2010 season. Rice won four of last five SU this season and covered five of its last six for David Bailiff. Rice, based on team trends.
at NAVY vs. ARIZONA STATE (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)...Navy dropped its last four vs. the number in 2012 but has covered in five of its last seven bowl. Mids also 20-12 vs. spread as dog since 2007, and Navy 26-13 vs. spread its last 39 as a dog dating to the middle of the 2004 season. ASU cooled off after a quick start this season and dropped 4 of its last six vs. the number, and Sun Devils have not covered in their last four bowls (last bowl cover in 2004 Sun Bowl vs. Purdue). Navy, based on extended team and bowl trends.
at WEST VIRGINIA vs. SYRACUSE (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...Former Big East rivals! Cuse won meetings the past two seasons as DD underdog on both occasions. Orange also closed this season hot, winning and covering five of last six. WVU earned covers in its last three but had dropped 6 of previous 7 vs. number this season. Syracuse, based on recent trends.
at OREGON STATE vs. TEXAS (Alamo Bowl)... Mack Brown only 4-7 vs. number last 11 bowls, while Mike Riley 5-1 SU and 4-2 vs. line in bowls with OSU since 2003. Texas 15-24 last 38 vs. spread since late 2009. Beavers 9-2 vs. line this season and 4-1 vs. line on road in 2012. Oregon State, based on team and extended bowl trends.
at TCU vs. MICHIGAN STATE (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)...Mark Dantonio 1-4 SU, 2-3 vs. spread in bowl games with MSU since 2007. Spartans only 4-8 vs. line this season but did cover 4 of 5 away from East Lansing (MSU was terrible 0-7 vs. spread as host this season) and are 9-3 against spread last 12 away from Spartan Stadium. Note Gary Patterson is 3-1 SU but 0-4 vs. line in last four bowls, and Frogs have won 6 of last 7 bowl games SU. Slight to TCU, based on recent bowl SU record.
Monday, Dec. 31
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at NC STATE vs. VANDERBILT (Music City Bowl)... NCS has covered its last seven bowls which extends to the Amato and O'Brien regimes. Pack only 1-5 vs. line away from Raleigh this season but extended dog mark is good (11-6-1 since 2010, 28-16-1 since 2007 receiving points). Vandy 9-4 vs. points in 2012 and 18-8 vs. line under James Franklin since 2011, although Dores failed to cover bowl last year vs. Cincy. NC State, based on extended bowl numbers.
at GEORGIA TECH vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Sun Bowl)... SC subpar 3-9 vs. number this season and 0-6 against number away from Coliseum. Lane Kiffin 0-1 in bowls (2009 with Tennessee against Virginia Tech in Chick fil-A Bowl). Trojans just 19-30 last 49 on board since early 2009. Paul Johnson 0-4 vs. line in bowls at GT but covered 3 of 4 in bowls with GT. Jackets 8-5 vs. line in 2012. Georgia Tech, based on SC road woes.
at IOWA STATE vs. TULSA (Liberty Bowl)...Rematch from ISU's 38-23 in opener of 2012 season at Ames. Tulsa 4-2 SU and vs. line last six bowl games, and Blankenship 13-7 vs. spread last 20 on board since mid 2011. Slight to Tulsa, based on extended trends.
at CLEMSON vs. LSU (Chick fil-A Bowl)...Les Miles 5-2 SU and vs. spread in bowls with LSU, although he did lose last year's BCS title game vs. Alabama. LSU only 1-3 vs. line as road favorite this season, but he was 10-4 vs. line away from Baton Rouge in 2010-11. Dabo only 5-5 as dog since 2010 (1-1 TY) and is just 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls the past four seasons. LSU, based on team trends.

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