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Sunday's Betting Notes

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Ohio at Louisville (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Line Analysis

Point-Spread: Louisville -21
Money Line: Louisville -1600 Ohio +1000 Total: 58

-- This line has been hovering between 20 and 21 points since it opened in early August.
-- The total hasn’t received much attention either, hovering between 57 ½ and 58 ½.
-- Louisville hasn’t been favored by this many points since the 2007 season when Steve Kragthorpe was making his debut as head coach after Bobby -- Petrino left for the NFL.
-- Ohio hasn’t been a double-digit underdog since 2010. The team caught 10-plus points twice that season, going 1-1 both straight up and agaisn the spread.

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Total Notes


-- Ohio saw the ‘under’ go 6-5-1 in 2012.
-- Louisville watched the ‘over’ go 7-5 last season.

Week 1 Notes

-- Since Frank Solich arrived in 2005, Ohio has gone 5-3 in season openers. In his debut season, the Bobcats were humbled 38-14 at Northwestern. The other two opening season losses were by a combined eight points. Last year, the Bobcats beat Penn State 24-14 in Happy Valley as five-point road underdogs, which was Ohio’s third straight season-opening win.

-- Louisville has gone 2-1 in season openers under head coach Charlie Strong, the victories coming by 12 and 18 points. Last year, the Cardinals beat Kentucky 32-14 at home in their opener, which was also played on a Sunday afternoon.

Non-Conference Notes

-- Ohio went 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in non-conference games last season, which included a 45-14 dominating win over Louisiana-Monroe in the Independence Bowl.

-- Louisville went 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in out of conference games last season. The pair of point-spread losses for the Cardinals came as double-digit favorites on the road. The biggest win came in the Sugar Bowl, as Louisville outclassed Florida 33-23 as a 14-point underdog.

Tech Trends from Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Sept.1
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at OHIO at LOUISVILLE...Solich 4-1 vs. spread against non-MAC LY and 7-3 in role past two years. Solich 18-9 last 27 as dog since late 2007 and 5-1 as DD dog that span. Solich has also covered last three openers and six of last seven first games on the board. Charlie Strong only 5-8 as Papa John's chalk since 2010 and just 3-6 vs. spread vs. non-conf. at home that span. Cards 3-7 laying DDs since 2010 and 0-3 laying 20 or more that span. Ohio, based on team trends.


Expert Analysis

Andy Iskoe - Louisville is a fashionable choice to be this season’s BCS Buster with a talented roster and favorable schedule. They are the clear favorite to win the watered down American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East) and may well not face a ranked team until they travel to Cincinnati to end the regular season. They are well coached with coach Charlie Strong producing winning seasons in each of his three seasons at the helm, including 11-2 last season. They have an experienced QB with Teddy Bridgewater mentioned as a possible Heisman Trophy candidate. But unlike past seasons when Louisville was the hunter the Cardinals are now the hunted, burdened by the weight of those lofty expectations. Ohio also has a talented QB (Tyler Tettleton) and a coach (Frank Solich) who won a National Title back in the day (Nebraska). Ohio was on the verge of an outstanding season in 2012 before numerous injuries took a great toll. Still, the Bobcats went 9-4 which followed up their 10-4 2011 campaign. They’ve been to four straight Bowls, winning the last two and are projected to again be a contender in the MAC. Louisville deserves to be solid favorites in this game but Ohio will compete with a well balanced offense and competent defense.

  
HEADLINES
Edwards: 2014 Big Ten Predictions
ASA: Win Totals to Watch
News: Final Four Consensus Picks
Williams: ACC Report - Week 1
Williams: Pac-12 Report - Week 1
Nelson: Texas A&M at South Carolina
Marshall: Team to Watch - Louisville
Edwards: 2014 ACC Predictions
Nelson: September Situations
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