LSU at Georgia
September 27, 2013
By Brian Edwards
Editor’s Note: Brian Edwards finished up Week 4 with a 5-1 (83%) record. Don’t miss out on his Week 5 Winners on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!
Matchup: LSU Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs
Venue: Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia (Grass)
Date: Saturday, September 27, 2013
Time/TV: 3:30 pm. ET - CBS
Line: Georgia -3, Over/Under 62
Last Meeting: 2011, LSU (-11) 42-10 in SEC Championship from Atlanta, Ga.
A brutal stretch of September games for Georgia will come to an end Saturday when it takes on Louisiana State between the hedges in Athens.
For the entire week, most betting shops have had Georgia (2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite. However, most books moved to 3 ½ late Friday afternoon.
The total for ‘over/under’ bets is 62. LSU (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is +140 on the money line (risk $100 to win $140). For first-half wagers, UGA is a one-point favorite with a total of 30 ½.
Georgia fell into a classic look-ahead situation at home against North Texas last week. That fact showed in a 45-21 Bulldogs’ win that was much closer than the final score indicated. The game was tied at 21-21 midway through the third quarter and UGA never threatened to cover as a 33-point favorite.
Aaron Murray threw for 408 yards and three touchdowns. Murray is enjoying a banner senior campaign to date. He has completed 72 percent of his passes for 1,040 yards with a 7/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Murray has an easier time, especially out of the play-action game, due to the presence of bruising running back Todd Gurley. The true sophomore has rushed for 377 yards and four TDs, averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
Les Miles’s team is off a 35-21 non-covering victory over Auburn as a 17-point home favorite. Jeremy Hill gashed the AU defense for 184 rushing yards and three TDs on 25 carries. Zach Mettenberger threw for 229 yards and one TD.
Mettenberger’s collegiate career began at Georgia before an arrest led to a suspension and eventual transfer. His mother is Mark Richt’s assistant, but she was given the week off by the head coach.
Mettenberger returns to Athens playing the best football of his career. He has clearly improved under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Mettenberger has 10 TD passes compared to only one interception.
Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham are two of the top WRs in the SEC. Landry has 24 receptions for 364 yards and six TDs, while Beckham has made 20 catches for 389 yards and four scores.
Hill missed the season-opening win over TCU at Cowboys Stadium due to a suspension. However, the sophomore RB has been making up for it ever since. Hill has 351 rushing yards and six TDs on just 42 carries. That’s good for an 8.4 YPC average.
LSU has been a road underdog 12 times under Miles, posting a 5-6-1 spread record. UGA has compiled a 12-7 ATS mark in its last 19 games as a home favorite.
The ‘over’ has hit in all four of LSU games this year. Likewise, the ‘over’ is a perfect 3-0 in UGA games. The ‘over’ has also cashed at a 5-1 clip in the last six head-to-head meetings.
These SEC rivals haven’t met since the SEC Championship Game two seasons ago. LSU fell behind 10-0 early but responded with 42 unanswered points en route to a 42-10 triumph as an 11 ½-point favorite.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Arkansas QB Brandon Allen was upgraded to ‘probable’ late Friday afternoon. Allen, who has 5/1 TD-INT ratio this season, missed last week’s 28-24 loss at Rutgers due to a bruised shoulder.
--TCU defensive end Devonte Fields is ‘out’ Saturday vs. SMU with a broken foot. Fields won Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors last year when he recorded 10 sacks.
--Florida has beaten Kentucky 26 consecutive times, the nation’s second-longest active streak. The Gators are 12-point favorites Saturday UK. They will be without QB Jeff Driskel and DT Dominique Easley, both of whom sustained season-ending injuries in the past week.
--Ole Miss is 7-1 ATS in its eight games played outside of Oxford since Hugh Freeze took over as head coach. The Rebels have covered the number in four straight trips to Bryant-Denny Stadium. They were 16 ½-point ‘dogs for Saturday night’s game at Alabama earlier in the week. That number was down to 14 by Friday afternoon.
--After going on a twitter rant about a lack of playing time last week, don’t to see much of Vanderbilt RB Brian Kimbrow in Saturday’s game vs. UAB.
--UAB will be without both of its starting safeties at Vandy.
--Rutgers RB Paul James is second in the nation in rushing, but he will miss at least the next two games due to a leg injury. That includes the Scarlet Knights’ pivotal road game at Louisville.
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