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ACC Report - Week 7

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Editor's Note: Joe Williams has hit 69.6% of his college football selections through six weeks. Don't miss out on Week 7 Winners!

Big Ten · ACC · Pac-12
The Atlantic Coast Conference has one more weekend of marginal games before the much-anticipated heavyweight title fight between Florida State and Clemson in Death Valley. This week fans will have to settle for Pittsburgh-Virginia Tech and Boston College-Clemson to whet their whistle.

I'll be in attendance at the Navy-Duke game, and I am very curious to see how the triple-option of Navy can move the ball against the sieve-like defense of the Duke Blue Devils. It will be a game of contrasting styles. Enjoy the weekend!
2013 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference  ATS Over/Under
Boston College 3-2 1-1 3-2 2-3
Clemson 5-0 3-0 3-2 3-2
Duke 3-2 0-2 3-2 2-3
Florida State 5-0 3-0 4-1 5-0
Georgia Tech 3-2 2-2 3-2 2-3
Maryland 4-1 0-1 4-1 3-2
Miami (Fla.) 5-0 1-0 4-1 3-2
North Carolina 1-4 0-2 1-4 1-4
North Carolina State 3-2 0-2 3-2 1-4
Pittsburgh 3-1 2-1 2-2 3-1
Syracuse 2-3 0-1 3-2 3-2
Virginia 2-3 0-1 2-3 3-2
Virginia Tech 5-1 2-0 2-3-1 1-4-1
Wake Forest 3-3 1-2 2-4 1-5


Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (ESPNU - 12:00 p.m. ET)
Did you know Pitt has covered in each of the past six meetings with Virginia Tech, including last season's 35-17 win? The Panthers have been hard to figure. They have won three games in a row straight-up, but they have alternated wins and losses against the spread (ATS) through their first four weeks. If you believe in crazy trends like that, they will fail to cover in Blacksburg. And the Panthers averaged 53.5 points per game (ppg) in two games against New Mexico and Duke from Sept. 14-21 before winning a 14-3 defensive battle against Virginia Sept. 28 before their bye. After starting the season 0-3-1 ATS, Virginia Tech has covered each of its past two, and they have rattled off five straight wins since their opening game loss against Alabama. The 'under' has also cashed in four of their past five.

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Navy at Duke (12:30 p.m. ET)
If the trends hold up, this baby is going 'over'. In each of the past six meetings between Duke and Navy, the 'over' has cashed in each matchup. These two sides have met 39 previous times despite not being conference foes, and Navy leads the all-time series 20-14-5, with Duke winners in each of the past two. Navy looks to change all of that, and they are hopeful to get RB Geoffrey Whiteside (ankle) back after he missed the past two games. He'll help that old-school attack, led by dual-threat QB Keenan Reynolds. Navy's defense has actually been stout over the past three, but that was also against dregs Delaware, Western Kentucky and Air Force, not exactly the who's who of college football. When they faced Indiana Sept. 7, a team with a similar offensive attack to Duke, the Middies were involved in a 41-35 barn burner. Expect more of the same.

Virginia at Maryland (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Virginia slinks up to College Park after getting manhandled at home by Ball State last week, 48-27. Meanwhile, Maryland left CP feeling good about itself before last week's game, going 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in their first four games. They return home, though, after an embarrassing 63-0 dismantling at the hands of Florida State. Both teams are on the rebound, and history says Virginia is the play here. However, hold everything. While UVA is 5-2 ATS in their past seven meetings with UMD, and the road team has cashed in each of the past four meetings, remember the Cavaliers are just 4-14-1 ATS in their past 19 overall, 2-8 ATS in their past 10 conference tilts, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven away from Scott Stadium. Plus, the Wahoos are an awful 8-22 ATS in their past 30 against teams with a winning overall mark. The Terps have covered their past four at home, and they are 6-1 ATS in their past seven overall. And Maryland is 27-12 ATS in their past 39 home games against a team with a losing road record.

Syracuse at North Carolina State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
An amazing fact from last week's Syracuse-Clemson game: the Orange completed ZERO passes to their wide receivers. That tells you a little bit about how Syracuse's offense is in disarray right now. However, despite last week's non-cover, Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in their past nine games overall. Just the same, they're 3-9 ATS in their past 12 road games, including a non-cover at Northwestern earlier in the season. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home mark. The Wolfpack were surprised in Wake Forest, although the numbers clearly pointed to the Deacs as the play there. NC State returns home where they are much better against the number, going 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 at Carter-Finley Stadium. They're also 4-1 ATS in their past five ACC games (last week being the loss), and a whopping 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games against a team with a losing road record.

Boston College at Clemson (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
As always, with Clemson, check the total first. This week it is set at 61.5 points, which seems a tad high at first glance. The under is 19-7-1 in Boston College's past 27 ACC games, 38-16-1 in their past 55 road games, and 37-16-1 in their past 54 overall. The under is also 20-6-1 in their past 27 against a team with a winning record. For all of Clemson's offense lately, the under is actually 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a winning record, and 5-2 in their past seven home games against a team with a winning road record. The under is also 22-8 in Clemson's past 30 games in the month of October, for whatever that's worth. And the under is 4-0 in the past four meetings between these two sides in Death Valley, including a game I attended in person. That day it was a 36-14 Clemson romp, and expect a similar spread, and total. As far as the spread, BC is no pushover, but that 24-point number could easily be met. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Clemson, and 0-7 ATS in their past seven road games.

Georgia Tech at Brigham Young (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Georgia Tech looked to have their game in Miami covered, but a turn of events led to a Hurricanes cover and ATS loss for the Ramblin' Wreck. However, Ga. Tech is still 8-3 ATS in their past 11 overall, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on grass. And they have covered four of their past five following a straight-up loss. For BYU, they're a tough read. This team lost outright to Virginia, trounced Texas and Utah State, yet lost at home to Utah straight-up while entering as a seven-point favorite. They're 3-2 SU and ATS, and the only certainty is their defense, with the 'under' cashing in three straight, and four of their five. The 'under' has also come through in three of their past four for the Yellow Jackets.

Byes
Florida State, Miami (FL), North Carolina

  
HEADLINES
Edwards: Miami, Fl. at Louisville
Nelson: 4th Quarter Covers - Week 1
News: College Betting Recap - Week 1
News: Aggies' Hill gets Heisman bets
Sportsbook: Cardinals make ACC debut
Texas QB Ash to miss BYU game
Baylor blanks SMU 45-0 in stadium opening
Tennessee's D shine in win over Uah State
Winston, FSU moving on from Week 1 win
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