Inside the Stats - Week 13
November 22, 2017
By Marc Lawrence
Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence's pro and college football selections can be purchased weekly on VegasInsider.com.
Stats don’t lie. People who interpret them do.
Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.
LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS
Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week includes:
College Football: Wake Forest
NFL: Cincinnati, Tampa Bay
PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS PLAY LIST
Listed below are the qualifying teams to date with their respective ITS win-loss records that have either won or lost all - or all but one – of their games in the stats. Play accordingly as long as these teams remain on this list from now thru the end of the season.
Play On ITS teams: Alabama 10-1, Central Florida 9-1, Georgia 10-1, Oklahoma 11-0, Oklahoma State 10-1, South Florida 10-0, and Wisconsin 11-0.
Play Against ITS teams: Connecticut 0-10-1, Rutgers 1-10, and UTEP 1-10.
WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY
It’s apparent that certain teams are in current form that is diametrically opposite to that of their overall season-to-date team stats.
The net differential of their overall team stats, with a net difference of 100 YPG or more since Game Seven (the second-half of the season), as opposed to the overall season-to-date team stats, are contained below. You would be wise to observe these opposite-form comparison teams.
Positive Game Seven Out Net Stats: East Carolina +104, Georgia Southern +109, and Missouri +154.
Negative Game Seven Out Net Stats: Ball State -118, Georgia Tech -107, Oklahoma State -104, Oregon -104, and Virginia -104.
Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.
We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.
College Football: Kansas State 0-8, Wyoming 0-3.
NFL: Cincinnati Bengals 0-5, Washington Redskins 0-5.
One of the gauges of how a team can be expected to perform on the field is how they go toe-to-toe with other teams throughout the course of a season.
When a team holds another to season-low yardage it’s an indicator that their defense is legit. Conversely, when they allow foes season-high yards their defense is waning and trouble is generally looming.
With that thought in mind, below is a list of teams that have held four or more FBS opponents to either season-low marks, or season-high yards this campaign, along with the amount of times they have accomplished the feat this season to date:
Season-lows: Alabama 5, Boston College 4, Clemson 5, Michigan 6, Michigan State 4, Ohio State 5, TCU 6, Texas 4, Virginia Tech 4, Washington 5, Washington State 5.
Season-highs: Bowling Green 4, UCLA 4, UL Lafayette 5, and UL Monroe 5.
On the NFL side of things…
Season-lows: Carolina Panthers 4, Jacksonville Jaguars 6.
Season-highs: Buffalo Bills 0-3, New York Giants 3, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3
STAT OF THE WEEK
South Florida has scored 24 or more points in each of its last 27 games. Central Florida is 3-18 SU and 4-17 ATS in its last 21 lined games in which it has yielded 24 or more points.
2-0 Sat, 12-3 Run, 6-0 G-Plays
4-2 Saturday, 8-1 L9 Totals
2-0 Sat, 47-26 Saturdays, +1,466
5-0 L5 G-Plays, 10-6 L2 Saturdays
9-3 L12 Picks, 60% +1,585 TY
4-2 Saturday, 5-0 L5 Totals
11-4 L15 Picks, 5-1 L6 G-Plays
6-3 L9 Picks, +1,286 This Year
7-1 G-Play Run, +1,126 TY
27-12 L39 Picks, 60% +982 TY
10-5 L10 Saturdays, 61% +1,018 TY
9-3 L12 G-Plays, 19-9 L28 Totals
14-5 CFB Streak, 4-2 Guarantees
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 11-5 L16 Totals
7-2 L9 NCAA FB Guarantees
3-0 L3 Totals, 5-1 L6 Guarantees
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