Betting Recap – Week 3

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

11 minute read

The largest underdogs to win straight up
BYU (+23.5, ML +1075) at Wisconsin, 24-21
Akron (+21, ML +900) at Northwestern, 39-34
Temple (+15.5, ML +550) at Maryland, 35-14
LSU (+10, ML +320) at Auburn, 22-21
Troy (+10, ML +300) at Nebraska, 24-19

The largest favorites to cover
Utah State (-47.5) vs. Tennessee Tech, 73-12
Western Michigan (-46.5) vs. Delaware State, 68-0
Cincinnati (-43) vs. Alabama A&M, 63-7
Penn State (-35) vs. Kent State, 63-10
Georgia (-34.5) vs. Middle Tennessee, 49-7

Top 25 Notes

-- There were plenty of takers on Mississippi catching 23 points at home aginst top-ranked Alabama. It wasn't nearly enough, as the Crimson Tide steamrolled the Rebels by a 62-7 score for their third cover in as many outings. 'Bama has been favored by 23 or more points in every outing so far, but they haven't won by less than 37 so far. Alabama is averaging 56.7 points per game (PPG) through three outings with the 'over' going 3-0. ... It was the final game before Urban Meyer is allowed to come back, and Ohio State made sure he returned to a team that is 3-0 SU. The Buckeyes and TCU were locked in a defensive battle at Jerry World, but suddenly Ohio State erupted for 20 points in a four-minute span to pick up the victory. However, the Horned Frogs were able to hang on for the cover at most shops. ... Washington opened the conference slate with a hard-fought and hard-hitting 21-7 victory at Utah. The 'under' is a perfect 3-0 so far this season for the Huskies, as they have allowed an average of just 10.3 PPG.

-- Arizona State arrived in the Top 25 this week and they were subsequently shown the door by San Diego State, 28-21. The Sun Devils struggled on offense until the very end of the game, and their rushing defense struggled mightily. That's not a good sign with Washington looming next time out.

-- Boise State-Oklahoma State was one of the most underrated games on the Week 3 card. After a scoreless first quarter, things started to get away from the Broncos in a hurry, and the Cowboys were able to pick up their second consecutive cover, moving to 2-0 ATS against FBS foes this season. Boise slipped to 2-1 ATS after routing their first two foes.
 
-- Wisconsin last tasted defeat during the regular season on Oct. 15, 2016 against Ohio State. Not many thought the Badgers would be in danger of that streak coming to an end against Brigham Young, but the Cougars had other plans. The Badgers not only slipped to 0-3 ATS on the season, but they misfired on a field goal in the final minute to lost 24-21 at Camp Randall, making no one want to jump around.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Duke continues to play well, and they notched another road victory at Baylor, 40-27 to move to 3-0 SU/ATS. ... Georgia Tech headed to Pittsburgh and it was a rough road trip. The Panthers were routed last week, while the Yellow Jackets also suffered defeat. Someone had to bounce back, and it was the Panthers picking up a 24-19 win to drop the Ramblin' Wreck to 0-3 ATS. ... Clemson held on for a 38-7 win against Georgia Southern, ambling through a home outing against a non-Power 5 team. They had a bit of a hangover after their impressive 28-26 nailbiter at Texas A&M. The games wasn't particularly close, but it was the Eagles coming away with another cover to go 3-0 ATS with the 'under' also 3-0. ... Syracuse-Florida State was expected to be a close game, as the Orange were installed as three-point underdogs at home. It didn't turn out that way, as 'Cuse routed FSU 30-7 to give Willie Taggart another lose. Things aren't exactly going to plan under the new regime, as Florida State is 0-3 ATS so far.

-- Indiana is flying a bit under the radar, but they moved to a perfect 3-0 SU with a 38-10 win over in-state rival Ball State. The Hoosiers picked up their first cover of the season in three tries, while the 'under' connected for the second straight outing, both at home. ...  Minnesota earned a third straight win and cover by whitewashing Miami (Ohio) by a 26-3 score. The Golden Gophers have allowed just 9.0 PPG through three games, but things will get a lot more difficult once conference play begins. ... Nebraska joined Wisconsin in the loser's lounge with a disappointing 24-19 setback against Troy. The Cornhuskers are 0-2 with both losses at home for the first time since 1947.

-- Kansas won against Rutgers 55-14, as they have earned back-to-back wins against FBS opponents for the first time since the 2009 season. It makes their opening game setback against FCS Nicholls State even that much more surprising. ... Texas Tech racked up a 63-49 shootout over Houston, as the Red Raiders moved to 3-0 on the 'over' this season. Defense is going to be an issue for this team, as they have allowed 48.0 PPG in two games against FBS foes. ... Texas bounced back with an impressive 37-14 win over USC, a team suddenly in freefall and unable to score on offense. The Longhorns earned their first cover in emphatic fashion and the defense allowed a season-low 14 points. Texas won for the 900th time in school history, joining Ohio State and Michigan as the only FBS schools in the club.

-- It's been a long time since UCLA struggled this badly, and an 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS start isn't exactly what the Bruins faithful had in mind when Chip Kelly was hired. But Fresno State came into the Rose Bowl and dropped the Bruins by a 38-14 score. Not only is it hard to figure a path to bowl eligibility, it's hard to see where UCLA is going to get a win anytime soon. ... Arizona doubled up FCS Southern Utah with a 62-31, and for the first time QB Khalil Tate looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate. That ship might have already sailed, but the Wildcats served notice that they're still a dangerous offense. They earned their first cover in three tries. 

-- Tennessee did a good job on defense, shutting out UTEP by a 24-0 count. However, the offense still has a long way to go if they're going to be successful during the SEC gauntlet. ... Vanderbilt left a ton of points on the field in their 22-17 loss at Notre Dame, but they easily covered the 14-point number. The Commodores moved to a perfect 3-0 ATS while the 'under' is also 3-0 for Vandy. ... LSU tossed their hat into the championship contender ring by upending Auburn by a 22-21 score on the Plains. The Tigers are 2-0 ATS in two games away from Death Valley this season. ... Arkansas was dumped at home by North Texas of Conference USA, 44-17. The Razorbacks are 0-2 SU/ATS in two battles against FBS teams this season with the 'under' 2-0 in those games. ... Texas A&M improved to 3-0 ATS with a 48-10 win against Louisiana-Monroe.  

Mid-Major Report

-- Temple went into Maryland and picked up an unexpected win after dropping their first two games of the season at home to FCS Villanova and Buffalo. ... Tulsa suffered a home loss against Arkansas State, as the Sun Belt picked up a big win. The 'under' has connected in each of the past two games for the Golden Hurricane. ... Memphis took apart Georgia State, 59-22, picking up their second win, cover and 'over' result in as many outings at the Liberty Bowl. ... Houston is averaging 47.7 PPG through three games, but they needed much more in their 63-49 loss in Lubbock against the Red Raiders. The Cougars slipped to 1-2 ATS.

-- Alabama-Birmingham picked up a nice win as 3 1/2-point underdogs at home against Tulane, 31-24. The Blazers need to tighten up on defense if they're to have further success, as they're allowing 35.5 PPG through two games against FBS foes. ... Middle Tennessee won't be applying for SEC admission anytime soon. They were blasted by Georgia by a 49-7 count, slipping to 0-2 SU/ATS in two games against SEC opponents. ... Western Kentucky suffered a loss to FCS Maine last week, 31-28. They bounced back with a 20-17 cover at Louisville, earning their second cover in two tries against Power 5 teams this season.  

-- Northern Illinois picked up a 24-16 win against Central Michigan, failing to cover for the second time in three tries while the 'under' connected for the third time in as many outings. ... Akron made history with their win at Northwestern, earning their first win against a Big Ten opponent since 1894 when the institution was called Buchtel College. The Zips have fired out to a 2-0 SU/1-1 ATS start. ... Bowling Green topped FCS Eastern Kentucky in a surprising 42-35 shootout, failing to cover for a second straight game. ... Ohio failed to cover at Virginia, as the Bobcats slipped to 0-2 ATS on the season.  

-- Hawaii made the cross-country trek to Army and the travel apparently caught up to them, as the Black Knights beat them 28-21 for a push at most shops. The Warriors also failed to hit the 'over' for the first time in four tries. ... New Mexico-New Mexico State was a high-scoring battle, with the Lobos posting a 42-25 win. The Lobos dropped the Aggies to 0-4 ATS, while the 'over' has connected in each of their past three outings.

Bad Beats

-- It wasn't a textbook bad beat, but 'over' (59.5) bettors had to feel good with 49 points on the board at halftime of Middle Tennessee-Georgia. The Bulldogs posted seven in the third, and there were 56 points with a full quarter to go. Under bettors lucked out with a scoreless fourth quarter.

-- 'Over' bettors in BYU-Wisconsin (52) were pleased near the end of regulation, as the Badgers were about to boot a game-tying field goal to force overtime. Oops. Wisconsin lost, and so did 'over' bettors.

-- Illinois appeared to be on the way to a win against South Florida, but the Illini folded in the fourth quarter. The Illini led 19-7 heading into the fourth as 14-point underdogs, but the Bulls outscored them 18-0 to come away with a 25-19 victory.

-- 'Over' (71) bettors were liking the way Bama-Ole Miss was shaping up, as there were 56 points on the board at halftime, and 66 points through three quarters. The Tide could only muster up a field goal in the final stanza, as the 'under' held out.

-- The 'under' (68) was looking good in Oregon State-Nevada left, with just 51 points on the board through three quarters after a scoreless third. Oregon State dashed their hopes with a touchdown with 4:40 to go, pushing the total over the finish line late.

  

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