Hot & Not Report
November 5, 2018
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Who's Hot and Who's Not
Week of November 5th
Last week's article dealt with the NFL as we had veteran QB's on a roll and warm weather, turnover prone teams as some of the best to fade. Well, Week 9 saw those five teams with QB's of 30+ end up going 2-3 ATS, as the Saints and Steelers came away with impressive victories, while Seattle and Denver had their chances all the way down to the final gun. Only the Washington Redskins saw their 3-0 ATS streak end rather quickly as they just couldn't stop Atlanta's running attack all afternoon long.
Over on the other side, the turnover prone teams from sunny California and Florida went 1-2 ATS (Jacksonville had their bye). That 1-2 ATS mark was the worst they could do though as San Francisco and Oakland played one another, so someone was bound to cover the number. Tampa Bay continued to turn the ball over with two more INT's thrown by Ryan Fitzpatrick, as the Bucs look like a prime candidate for a massive overhaul at nearly every position come this spring.
Today it's back to the college ranks as the CFB Playoff picture heats up with each passing Saturday and there are some pretty significant SU winning (and losing streaks) going on throughout the nation. SU wins don't lead to dramatic ATS success in college like they tend to do in the pros, but with many of the programs who are currently playoff contenders riding some significant runs, will any of them slip up this week?
National Title contenders with winning streaks of 8 or more games – Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Notre Dame
There's a real good chance we see those four teams as the CFB playoff selection committee's Top 4 this week, as Michigan should jump up into that 4th spot with LSU eliminated now. It shouldn't be surprising to see teams that are running the table in the mix to win it all, but all four of those squads went 4-0 ATS this past week. Alabama's got the longest SU winning streak of the group (11), followed by Notre Dame (10), Clemson (9), and Michigan (8). And it wouldn't be a piece on current winning streaks without a shout out to UCF's 21 straight wins, as the Knights continue to lobby for their inclusion among the nation's best teams.
Alabama and Notre Dame survived tough road tests against LSU and Northwestern respectively, while Clemson and Michigan put a woodshed beating on Louisville and Penn State respectively. All four of them enter this week as favorites of -18 or more currently, with Clemson and Alabama laying that kind of chalk against ranked foes again. Clemson's game is likely going to be the tougher one of the two, if for no other reason than they are on the road, and while it may already seem like a foregone conclusion that all four of those playoff contenders will walk away with SU wins this week, the point spread is always the great equalizer and it may get tougher and tougher to back these teams at such big numbers going forward.
It will be interesting to see if any of them have their point spreads fall below that key number of -17 throughout the week, and that's definitely something I'll be keeping my eye on up until kick-off. Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, and Notre Dame are a combined 23-13 ATS this year so it's not like they haven't padded many a bankroll already. And then when you throw in Alabama's perfect 9-0 ATS mark in first halves, these numbers are probably more likely to go up before they come down. Eventually there will be a point where some buyback could occur on those big 'dogs if that's the case, and then it's up to you to determine where you believe the value lies. That's why it always helps to set your own lines if you can, using them as a comparison point to help with your handicapping regarding powerhouse programs like these with huge lines to cover.
Navy and Louisville – Worst ATS records in the country (1-8 ATS) and owners of the longest losing streaks in their respective conferences
Last weekend may have been billed as “Showdown Saturday” in college football with all the big matchups we had, but a game that definitely didn't go unnoticed was the UTEP/Rice game which was a battle between the two longest losing streaks in the land. UTEP managed to snap their 20-game losing run by beating the Rice Owls – who now own the nation's longest losing streak at nine games – to avoid getting placed in this section today, as it's the longest losing streaks in the ACC and American conferences that get the attention here.
Louisville (ACC) and Navy (American) have each lost six straight contests coming into their respective matchups this week, but more importantly their 1-8 ATS mark has been burning bettor's money all year long. Louisville catching nearly 40 points was nowhere near enough against Clemson this past weekend, while Nave was blanked 42-0 by the Cincinnati Bearcats. That's seven straight ATS defeats for this proud Navy program that is void of significant talent this year, and with a trip to UCF on deck this weekend, I don't think we will see too many looking to take the +25.5 points with Navy that the Midshipmen are currently getting.
Louisville has lost four in a row against the number as they've allowed 56 or more points in three of their past four games. A regime change is likely coming for the Cardinals who clearly weren't prepared for life after QB Lamar Jackson, and this week's road test against a ranked Syracuse squad isn't likely to be fun either (Louisville is +21.5 currently).
These are probably two games where we will see the lines move in favor of the favorites, so if you like to bet against bad teams, I'd suggest getting your money down early.
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20-10 L4 Sat, 34-16 Run, +1,900 TY
6-0 Saturday, 12-5 L17 Guarantees
13-4 L17, 23-6 Win Streak
3-0 Picks, 6-1 G-Plays, 17-7 Totals
7-2 L5 Sat, 13-7 Picks, 61% Overall
4-0 G-Plays, 11-3 Picks, 12-4 L3 Sat
10-1 L11 Totals, 4-2 Week 11
6-1 Last 7 Guaranteed Plays
5-1 Saturday, 8-4 L12 Totals
12-5 L3 Saturdays, 60% +1,131 TY
10-5 L4 Saturdays, 3-0 L3 G-Plays
5-2 L7 Totals, +919 Net Profits TY
38-22 L11 Saturdays, 11-6 G-Plays
4-1 Last Saturday, 7-3 L10 Picks
7-3 L10 NCAA FB Guarantees
16-6 Record Last 8 Fridays
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