#2 Oregon (8-1, 5-1 Pac-10) at Arizona (4-6, 3-4 Pac-10)
Thursday, November 15 9:00 PM ET on ESPN
Arizona Stadium (Natural Grass)
Get further insight on this Pac-10 matchup by clicking on Christian Alexander's Thursday Night pick pack.
Last week was a perfect example of the dangers of laying a lot of points. I backed West Virginia (-16), figuring the dynamic duo of Pat White and Steve Slaton would find little resistance from a porous Louisville defense. And although it was a lot more White than Slaton, that premise proved true.
So the Mountaineers covered right? Wrong.
Thanks to three costly White fumbles the Cardinals were able to hang around, erasing a 17 point deficit in the 3rd quarter. Thanks to White, West Virginia would eventually win, but only by a touchdown.
So the 6-4 Thursday night record drops back to 6-5. That’s been my year in a nutshell, frustrating.
Moving on to this Thursday and we find another highly ranked team giving double digits. However, whereas West Virginia was at home last week, this Thursday Oregon – the #2 team in the nation – will be on the road at Arizona.
By now, most everyone knows about Oregon and the high flying Ducks. This squad made a serious statement in just their second game of the season when they went into the Big House and smoked Michigan 39-7.
That win was somewhat marginalized due to the fact that the Wolverines had just suffered arguably the most embarrassing defeat in their history when they lost to Appalachian State. However, it was a precursor for things to come for coach Mike Bellotti.
At the outset of this season, most college football experts would have said that no team could hold a candle to the backfield duo at West Virginia, the aforementioned White and Slaton. However, not many would argue now that Oregon’s Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart aren’t at the very least their equal.
Stewart is the workhorse back and deserves a ton of credit for the Oregon success but the real key to this offensive machine is the play of QB Dennis Dixon.
Partly due to his team’s great play and partly due to the inconsistent play of other contenders, Dixon has emerged as a leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy.
The run-first signal caller has broken the Oregon QB career rushing record and needs just 95 yards for the single-season mark en route to winning three Pac-10 player of the week awards this season.
With Dixon at the controls, the Ducks boast an offense that is fifth in the nation in rushing, total offense and scoring offense. Granted, Oregon is just 49th in passing but Dixon has certainly shown that he can throw the ball down the field when needed.
Speaking of throwing down the field, in order to stay competitive this Thursday, Arizona will have to do just that. The good news for Wildcats fans is that junior quarterback Willie Tuitama has proven he is up to the task.
After years of struggling on offense, coach Mike Stoops finally scrapped his entire offensive plan and decided to join the flavor of the month club. Translation: he inserted the wildly popular spread offense at Arizona.
Normally, total overhauls like this take at least a season or two to start showing progress – see Nebraska. However, in Arizona’s case, the year-over-year difference is obvious. The Wildcats offense has scored almost 13 more points per game this season, going from 16 points last year to 28.5 points this year.
As is the case most of the time, most of the credit for this turnaround needs to go to the quarterback.
A little slow out of the gates to start the season, Tuitama is starting to flourish under the new offensive scheme. The stats certainly bear this out as Arizona comes into this game with the #1 pass offense in the Pac-10 – a conference that certainly knows a thing or two about throwing the ball.
Recently, Tuitama has been on fire, throwing for 851 yards over the last two games while leading the Wildcats to 48 and 34 points. His go-to guy is clearly Mike Thomas, the leading receiver in the Pac-10. Thomas is averaging almost seven catches and 80 yards per game and has hauled in nine receiving touchdowns on the year.
So the stage is set for quite an exciting game this Thursday. The #1 rushing offense in the Pac-10 led by QB Dennis Dixon against the #1 passing offense in the Pac-10 led by QB Willie Tuitama. The Wildcats will have the benefit of the home field advantage but the Ducks have a ton of motivation in this game with the national title implications, not to mention the revenge factor as Oregon well remembers getting thumped by Stoops and crew 37-10 a year ago in Eugene.
Thursday Night Factoids:
- Oregon has won the last five meetings against Arizona in Tucson
- Arizona is 4-5 ATS in 2007 and 2-2 ATS at home this season
- Oregon is 8-1 ATS in 2007 and 3-0 ATS on the road this season
- The Wildcats have played 408 games at Arizona Stadium, 326 of them at night, winning 258, losing 139 and tying 12 for a .632 winning percentage.
- Oregon ranks #5 in the nation in total offense and #74 on defense
- Arizona ranks #55 in the nation in total offense and #48 on defense
- Although they rank 74th in total defense, the Ducks are No. 30 in the nation in scoring defense
Results year to date
Arizona (4-6, 3-4 Pac-10)
Sep 1 @BYU Lost 7-20
Sep 8 Northern Arizona Won 45-24
Sep 15 New Mexico Lost 27-29
Sep 22 @California Lost 27-45
Sep 29 Washington St. Won 48-20
Oct 6 @Oregon St. Lost 16-31
Oct 13 @Southern Cal. Lost 13-20
Oct 20 Stanford Lost 20-21
Oct 27 @Washington Won 48-41
Nov 3 UCLA Won 34-27
Oregon (8-1, 5-1 Pac-10)
Sep 1 Houston Won 48-27
Sep 8 @Michigan Won 39-7
Sep 15 Fresno St. Won 52-21
Sep 22 @Stanford Won 55-31
Sep 29 California Lost 24-31
Oct 13 Washington St. Won 53-7
Oct 20 @Washington Won 55-34
Oct 27 Southern Cal. Won 24-17
Nov 3 Arizona St. Won 35-23
