2007: Auburn overcame an abysmal start to win eight of its last 10 games and finish on a strong note. The Tigers went out in style, besting Clemson 23-20 as two-point underdogs in an overtime thriller at the Georgia Dome in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.
The 2007 campaign started with a scare, as Tommy Tuberville’s team beat Kansas State 23-13 in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. Next, the Tigers couldn’t overcome five turnovers in a 26-23 home loss to South Florida in overtime.
Auburn seemingly hit rock bottom the following week, losing a 19-14 decision to Mississippi St. as a 13-point home favorite. At that point, the Tigers were 1-2 and senior quarterback Brandon Cox was playing like the most disappointing player in America.
However, Cox’s play would come around. Two weeks after losing as a double-digit ‘chalk,’ Auburn went into The Swamp and captured a shocking 20-17 triumph as a 17 ½-point underdog.
When the Tigers went to Baton Rouge in late October, they had a four-game winning streak and a chance to take control of the SEC West. But it wasn’t to be, as LSU won 30-24 thanks to a last-second touchdown pass by Matt Flynn.
Auburn would recover to win a sixth consecutive Iron Bowl over Alabama, but it failed to produce another road win in its bitter rivalry with Georgia. The Dawgs took the Tigers behind the woodshed with a 45-20 clubbing.
Strengths: Auburn has a deep backfield with three running backs – Ben Tate, Brad Lester and Mario Fannin – who combined for 1,881 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last year. Those backs will run behind an improved offensive line that returns all five starters, including three sophomores that started as true freshmen.
The Tigers have their go-to wide receiver back. That’s senior Rodgeriqus Smith, who had 52 receptions for 705 yards and five touchdowns last season.
In 2007, Auburn finished sixth in the nation in pass defense, total defense and scoring defense. This unit returns speed galore and should be able to put plenty of pressure on opposing QBs. Junior defensive end Antonio Coleman had 8 ½ sacks last season, and he’s joined on the d-line by junior DT Sen’Derrick Marks, who has 26 career starts to his credit.
Will this finally be the year that junior LB Tray Blackmon lives up to his potential? Only time will tell, but if he does, SEC offenses will be in trouble. The secondary – led by sophomore safety Zac Etheridge junior CB Jerraud Powers – is also expected to be outstanding.
Special teams should be a strength for the Tigers, who return punter Ryan Shoemaker and Wes Byrum. Shoemaker was a second-team All-SEC selection last year, while Byrum converted game-winning field goals in the finals seconds at Florida and at Arkansas.
Weaknesses: Can sophomore QB Kodi Burns be an accurate passer in Tony Franklin’s pass-happy attack? As a true freshman, Burns was a running QB who was rarely asked to pass, completing just 10-of-26 throws with a 2/1 touchdown-interception ratio.
We know can Burns can run, though. He scrambled for 203 yards and three touchdowns last year, reminding Auburn fans of former mobile QBs like Dameyune Craig and Jason Campbell.
Burns had an entire month of bowl preparation and spring drills to master Franklin’s new offense brought in from Troy, where Omar Haugabook put up big numbers the last couple of seasons. But don’t be surprised if Burns shares time with Chris Todd, who is a transfer from Texas Tech that played for Franklin in high school.
The thinking here is that Auburn has enough talent to replace DE Quentin Groves and DT Pat Sims, but will their leadership on that side of the ball be missed?
Players to Watch: A wise man once said potential is a word that means you haven’t done anything yet. For the most part, LB Tray Blackmon defines potential. He’s dealt with a few injuries and some off-the-field problems that have limited his playing time, but Blackmon has Jevon Kearse-like size and skills. If he can keep his head straight, this could be his breakout campaign.
Returning Starters: 16 (9 offense, 7 defense)
Schedule: The non-conference slate includes a monster matchup at West Virginia on a Thursday night in late October, when cold weather could be a factor in Morgantown. The three non-conference home games are against ULM, Southern Miss and UT-Martin. Remember, ULM won outright at Alabama last year, and the Golden Eagles are notorious for giving SEC teams fits.
Auburn’s four SEC road games are all winnable: at Mississippi St., at Vandy, at Ole Miss and at Alabama. The toughest league games are at home with LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas and Georgia coming to the Plains. The two open dates precede at West Virginia and at Alabama.
Letdown Spot: Nov. 1 at Ole Miss – I think the West Virginia-Auburn game is going to be built up as a colossal showdown, possibly with national-title implications. With that in mind, Auburn’s focus might be off going into Oxford. That would be a mistake because I feel like the Rebels will only get better as QB Jevan Snead gets more experience.
The trip to Ole Miss will be even tougher if Auburn emerges from Morgantown unscathed. However, if the Tigers lose to the Mountaineers, this letdown scenario will lose its luster to the bounce-back situation that’ll be created. Also, let’s remember that Auburn will have two extra days of rest after playing West Virginia on a Thursday.
Look-Ahead Situation: Sept. 13 at Mississippi State - Even though Auburn’s trip to Starkville represents a revenge spot, I’ll still dub this matchup as a dangerous look-ahead situation. The Tigers will have LSU on deck and the winner of that game will be in the driver’s seat of the SEC West.
Good Bets: Play On Auburn vs. Georgia on Nov. 15 - I’m not a big fan of calling for a wager this far in advance, especially when we have no clue what sort of number we’ll be dealing with. Nevertheless, this is going to be an immensely difficult spot for Georgia.
The Dawgs will be playing their fourth game on the road in as many weeks. This brutal stretch for UGA starts with a trip to Baton Rouge to play LSU. Next, the Dawgs go to Jacksonville to face the Gators before venturing to Lexington to face UK. Finally, UGA comes to the Loveliest Village to wrap up this daunting four-game stint.
Meanwhile, Auburn will have a home game against UT-Martin leading up to the UGA game. In the past, Tommy Tuberville has had no reservations about resting multiple starters to get healthy when Auburn faces a cupcake squad (think Tennessee Tech last year and Arkansas St. in 2006).
Play On Auburn vs. LSU on Sept. 20 – We don’t know who LSU’s starting QB will be yet, but we do know that this will be his first career road start. In college football and the NFL, I love going against inexperienced QBs making their first career road starts in hostile environments. When we add in the revenge factor from last year’s heartbreaker in Baton Rouge, we have the making of a successful wager with a play on the home team.
Prediction: I see Auburn going 10-2 and winning the SEC West, but the Tigers will lose to Florida at the Georgia Dome in the SEC Championship Game. Tuberville’s troops will start 7-0, only to fall at West Virginia. From there, the Tigers will win out until Alabama snaps its six-game losing streak by beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Auburn’s Top Five Players:
1-Antonio Coleman
2-Jerraud Powers
3-Sen’Derrick Marks
4-Tray Blackmon
5-Lee Ziemba
--Two SEC West teams have lost their starting middle linebackers recently. Arkansas will be without Freddie Fairchild, the team’s leading returning tackler who had 92 stops in 2007. Bobby Petrino dismissed Fairchild from the Razorbacks program earlier this month. Fairchild was suspended back in March after getting arrested on domestic violence charges.
--Nick Saban kicked LB Jimmy Johns off the Alabama squad on June 24 following his arrest for selling cocaine to undercover officers. Authorities searched Johns’ off-campus apartment and found 10 grams of cocaine and ecstasy pills. The Crimson Tide is already thin at the LB position because Prince Hall is also facing an indefinite suspension.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
